tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24735046156108835622024-03-19T14:44:23.524+11:00UrRemote ResearchResearch commentary.Kenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.comBlogger29125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2473504615610883562.post-242893752753694932020-05-13T11:04:00.000+10:002020-05-16T06:39:55.314+10:00Whatever Became Of Peter W Connolly?<h3>
A Ripping Yarn</h3>
In October 1991 I travelled to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ternate" target="_blank">Ternate</a>, Indonesia. It is one the fabled <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maluku_Islands" target="_blank">Spice Islands</a> and now a beautiful speck in a modern day backwater. It was accessible from Java by spending four days on a <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/PdXi74kjK3L6YyVX7" target="_blank">government ship</a>. There weren't many visitors at that time but I gather that's changed as Ternate is now a <a href="https://www.cruisemapper.com/ports/pulau-ternate-island-port-1808" target="_blank">cruising destination.</a> It was hard to imagine Ternate as <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/806862.stm" target="_blank">central</a> to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spice_trade#Age_of_European_Discovery:_finding_a_new_route_and_a_New_World" target="_blank">European engagement </a> with Asia in the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_Discovery" target="_blank">age of discovery</a> and that it was from Ternate that Alfred Russel Wallace <a href="https://themacropod.wordpress.com/2016/08/14/alfred-russel-wallaces-ternate-house/" target="_blank">posted his essay</a> describing a <a href="http://www.bbc.com/travel/story/20170525-the-island-that-forever-changed-science" target="_blank">theory of natural selection</a>, to Charles Darwin. It was also occupied by the Japanese during World War II which turned out to be unexpectedly interesting and led to my curiosity in the fate of Peter W Connolly.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIqYO5CG5cnk62CGqzNKHszVELV8yfFbm4xUKGhgu_WxVa7TIWrgl_InOrwzDRszrQfbzq605X5Xw7fFocvVpk0-mm_CJUSFPqfLdMYTW_gjBriNp-BfXfDBWy0AgyyiDIrWpLoS_PPJs/s1600/20120826161736%2521Ternate.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1267" data-original-width="1600" height="253" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIqYO5CG5cnk62CGqzNKHszVELV8yfFbm4xUKGhgu_WxVa7TIWrgl_InOrwzDRszrQfbzq605X5Xw7fFocvVpk0-mm_CJUSFPqfLdMYTW_gjBriNp-BfXfDBWy0AgyyiDIrWpLoS_PPJs/s320/20120826161736%2521Ternate.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div>
<br />
<div>
Ternate island is formed from an <a href="http://volcano.oregonstate.edu/gamalama">active volcano</a>, also known as Gunung (Mt) Gamalama, rising from the ocean. I had ambitions of <a href="https://www.gunungbagging.com/gamalama/" target="_blank">climbing</a> Gamalama but as I didn't know a route, I set off speculatively. Part way along I met a couple of Indonesian teenage boys who offered to show me the way and a pleasant but strenuous day with them followed. One wore a pendant which resembled the dog tags American soldiers wear. The language barrier was high but he seemed not to understand the pendant's origin and was willing to part with it for a small sum. Importantly, the interest was all mine. He hadn't mentioned it or tried to sell it and nor, as far as I could tell, did these boys regularly interact with visitors. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6laUTneDPZ3jlUzCke3YXd3Wt0ft9wJaiuRgR-vX7WDj9x5il3TLNzQBl4tmjrwo4vtZDeWIRPwxYtbgAMA4xcHDrF-4ZQK6aRliQcNpNWyMIEFBA4ZCdBc6xQ-gtT-41CZIInIdU3UY/s1600/IMG_20200512_161310.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6laUTneDPZ3jlUzCke3YXd3Wt0ft9wJaiuRgR-vX7WDj9x5il3TLNzQBl4tmjrwo4vtZDeWIRPwxYtbgAMA4xcHDrF-4ZQK6aRliQcNpNWyMIEFBA4ZCdBc6xQ-gtT-41CZIInIdU3UY/s320/IMG_20200512_161310.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDIvW5_sEvvMfjPWAZh5udxJPVij52krDGiDWX-aK66Q2VBYuVEagNIPhBHQ9CuU7sY93WHhfXJnfgO6GrbkAGWS8OkiEIofYHlTyBNS5o3DjgAYAWfXZXLX4MNudQv3R6bSOG68i7LIw/s1600/IMG_20200512_161444-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="911" data-original-width="1600" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDIvW5_sEvvMfjPWAZh5udxJPVij52krDGiDWX-aK66Q2VBYuVEagNIPhBHQ9CuU7sY93WHhfXJnfgO6GrbkAGWS8OkiEIofYHlTyBNS5o3DjgAYAWfXZXLX4MNudQv3R6bSOG68i7LIw/s640/IMG_20200512_161444-2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Soldiers wear two dog tags. When killed in battle, one is taken to record the death and the other remains with the corpse, so the boy's dog tag seemed likely to have been souvenired from an American soldier somewhere nearby and still missing in action. I knew little about dog tags, only a little more about America's Pacific War and even less of <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/the-untold-story-how-z-force-saved-the-sultan-20100423-tj7q.html" target="_blank">Australia's involvement</a> in the region. While fascinating, I was uncertain of the dog tags provenance. On returning home I wrote of the discovery to the American Embassy in Australia. There was no response and I stored away my tag, puzzled. As I sort through the detritus accumulated over a life time it surfaced again and I wondered if, in the age of the internet, more could be discovered.</div>
<h3>
<br />Questions Arising</h3>
<h4>
Is it actually a US military ID/Dog tag?</h4>
<div>
I've never seen one previously, I'd mostly guessed it to be a dog tag. In 1991 I couldn't check but now I can and it matches perfectly the <a href="https://www.med-dept.com/articles/u-s-army-ww2-dog-tags/" target="_blank">style issued</a> from July 1943 to March 1944. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1JfFpD7otm0Cb6QOhC8QCSHjT7PF7UkLO9Zdk_U_ECyuH3yaqXC1EM1BCXeYxstki9VzRiLO4SW4A9gHLdGmij4tN4z8-0p8eJnyfZdQVEDn5Zu9szA3b_yG_67zS3ARkfdhybFylLTw/s1600/third_type.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="462" data-original-width="550" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1JfFpD7otm0Cb6QOhC8QCSHjT7PF7UkLO9Zdk_U_ECyuH3yaqXC1EM1BCXeYxstki9VzRiLO4SW4A9gHLdGmij4tN4z8-0p8eJnyfZdQVEDn5Zu9szA3b_yG_67zS3ARkfdhybFylLTw/s320/third_type.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A sample dog tag set of the same style as Peter's.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
Even the chain is the same, though it is shorter than the regulation <a href="http://www.hardscrabblefarm.com/ww2/dogtags_serial.htm">40 inches</a>. That type of chain is common though and mine is attached differently than in the photo, so an alternative explanation is that the dog tag was acquired without a chain and a similar chain was attached. The chain on mine fitted over the head of the previous young owner but is too short to get over my adult skull.<br />
<br /></div>
<h4>
Did Peter exist?</h4>
<div>
US army enlistment records for World War II were published in 2002 by the US National Archives and <a href="https://aad.archives.gov/aad/record-detail.jsp?dt=893&mtch=2&tf=F&q=peter+w+connolly&bc=sl,fd&rpp=10&pg=1&rid=6499327&rlst=3388535,6499327" target="_blank">here is Peter's</a>.</div>
<div>
<table style="background-color: white; border-collapse: collapse; border-spacing: 0px; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: black; font-family: verdana, arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10.944px; margin: 1em 0px; width: 717px;"><tbody>
<tr><th style="background-color: #eeeeee; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;" width="165">Field Title</th><th style="background-color: #eeeeee; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">Value</th><th style="background-color: #eeeeee; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">Meaning</th></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;" width="165"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="color: #333399;">ARMY SERIAL NUMBER</a></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">36329593</td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">36329593</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;" width="165"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="color: #333399;">NAME</a></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">CONNOLLY#PETER#W########</td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">CONNOLLY#PETER#W########</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;" width="165"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="color: #333399;">RESIDENCE: STATE</a></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">61</td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">ILLINOIS</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;" width="165"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="color: #333399;">RESIDENCE: COUNTY</a></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">031</td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">COOK</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;" width="165"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="color: #333399;">PLACE OF ENLISTMENT</a></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">6120</td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">CHICAGO ILLINOIS</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;" width="165"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="color: #333399;">DATE OF ENLISTMENT DAY</a></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">08</td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">08</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;" width="165"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="color: #333399;">DATE OF ENLISTMENT MONTH</a></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">04</td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">04</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;" width="165"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="color: #333399;">DATE OF ENLISTMENT YEAR</a></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">42</td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">42</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;" width="165"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="color: #333399;">GRADE: ALPHA DESIGNATION</a></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">PVT#</td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">Private</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;" width="165"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="color: #333399;">GRADE: CODE</a></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">8</td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">Private</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;" width="165"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="color: #333399;">BRANCH: ALPHA DESIGNATION</a></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">BI#</td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">Branch Immaterial - Warrant Officers, USA</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;" width="165"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="color: #333399;">BRANCH: CODE</a></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">00</td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">Branch Immaterial - Warrant Officers, USA</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;" width="165"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="color: #333399;">FIELD USE AS DESIRED</a></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">#</td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">#</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;" width="165"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="color: #333399;">TERM OF ENLISTMENT</a></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">5</td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">Enlistment for the duration of the War or other emergency, plus six months, subject to the discretion of the President or otherwise according to law</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;" width="165"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="color: #333399;">LONGEVITY</a></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">###</td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">###</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;" width="165"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="color: #333399;">SOURCE OF ARMY PERSONNEL</a></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">0</td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">Civil Life</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;" width="165"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="color: #333399;">NATIVITY</a></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">61</td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">ILLINOIS</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;" width="165"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="color: #333399;">YEAR OF BIRTH</a></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">12</td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">12</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;" width="165"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="color: #333399;">RACE AND CITIZENSHIP</a></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">1</td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">White, citizen</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;" width="165"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="color: #333399;">EDUCATION</a></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">2</td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">2 years of high school</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;" width="165"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="color: #333399;">CIVILIAN OCCUPATION</a></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">284</td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">Janitors and sextons</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;" width="165"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="color: #333399;">MARITAL STATUS</a></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">6</td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">Single, without dependents</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;" width="165"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="color: #333399;">COMPONENT OF THE ARMY</a></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">7</td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">Selectees (Enlisted Men)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;" width="165"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="color: #333399;">CARD NUMBER</a></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">#</td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">#</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;" width="165"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="color: #333399;">BOX NUMBER</a></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">1066</td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">1066</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;" width="165"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" style="color: #333399;">FILM REEL NUMBER</a></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">5.128</td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 7px 5px 7px 7px;">5.128</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<br />
From this we learn Peter exists, he was an average American from the Midwest and his Army Serial Number matches my dog tag. He was Catholic with 2 years of high school education, enlisted in April 1942 as a private, was unmarried, 30 years old and previously worked as a janitor.<br />
<br />
There is some information in the <a href="http://www.hardscrabblefarm.com/ww2/dogtags_serial.htm">serial number</a>. The first digit value of 3 indicates Peter was a draftee and the 2nd digit value of 6 indicates "Sixth Corps Area" which is odd because the VI Corp (United States) <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VI_Corps_(United_States)#World_War_II">fought in Europe</a>. There is no serial number range listed for the Fourteenth Corp Area. However, it was the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XIV_Corps_(United_States)">XIV Corp</a> of the Sixth Army <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Down-under-Nippon-Story-Sixth/dp/B0007DXW50">that fought the Pacific War</a>, so the second digit value of 6 must mean the Sixth Army rather than "Sixth Corps Area". I haven't been able to discover the unit in which Peter served.<br />
<br />
<h4>
Was Peter Fighting In Ternate?</h4>
<div>
There was a Japanese garrison of about 1000 men and 350 naval personnel on Ternate when the 188th Glider Infantry, 11th Airborne Division, XIV US Army Corp mounted an assault on 1st of March 1945. They secured the Ternate area by midafternoon the following day with about 350 Japanese killed and most of the rest escaping to the islands interior <span style="font-size: 13.3333px;">(</span><a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=u9BQAQAAMAAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false" target="_blank">Smith, R. 1963</a>). "US casualty figures could not be located but General Swing, the 11th Airborne divisions commander, stated that the battle cost the 11th division "significant casualties" - <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=u9BQAQAAMAAJ&pg=PA351&lpg=PA351&dq=ternate+WW2#v=onepage&q=ternate%20WW2&f=false" target="_blank">Swing comments, 10 January 57</a> <span style="font-size: 13.3333px;">(</span>Smith, R. 1963)<br />
<br />
So I don't know that Peter was in the 11th but he was in the Sixth Army of which it was a component and there was a battle in Ternate with significant US casualties. Peter could have been there.<br />
<br /></div>
<h4>
Was Peter A War Casualty?</h4>
The practice was:- One of
the two identification tags worn as prescribed in Army
Regulations will be attached to the remains when interred.
This includes any and all interments in the theater of
operations the first battlefield interment, as well as the
interment into a temporary cemetery for subsequent, final
disposition. The duplicate tag will be removed at time of
interment and attached securely to the grave marker about
2 inches from the top (<a href="https://ia800306.us.archive.org/35/items/FM10-63/FM10-63.pdf" target="_blank">Graves Registration, 1945</a>).<br />
<br />
The presumption is that if this is Peter's dog tag, he is still missing in action which can be checked against the US National Archives of <a href="https://www.archives.gov/research/military/ww2/army-casualties/illinois.html" target="_blank">WWII Army Casualties: Illinois</a> - <a href="https://nara-media-001.s3.amazonaws.com/arcmedia/media/images/28/28/28-2729a.gif" target="_blank">Cook County</a>.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH5viILNGjN1Bny1bO0qgCQm78rZjJM3YgFjB3nol8jCKZGC9xD4c2oPQxBGvmxSZuIGUTHnAUzNVlMXgbhM2EiXWGOcHGL7BlttmG61WQN4ULok0_E_wKa82hcSnmz_ZkGNYAqXFEgWE/s1600/28-2729a2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="57" data-original-width="365" height="49" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH5viILNGjN1Bny1bO0qgCQm78rZjJM3YgFjB3nol8jCKZGC9xD4c2oPQxBGvmxSZuIGUTHnAUzNVlMXgbhM2EiXWGOcHGL7BlttmG61WQN4ULok0_E_wKa82hcSnmz_ZkGNYAqXFEgWE/s320/28-2729a2.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Extract from the US National Archives of WWII Army Casualties: Illinois - Cook County where Peter should be listed between Milton and Thomas if he was a casualty or missing.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
He's not recorded as missing or deceased. The casualty records for the Ternate assault are incomplete and so is the WWII Army casualty list though the casualty list is mostly correct and he should be there.<br />
<br />
This makes me think if Peter was fighting in Ternate he probably survived, but then why was his dog tag left behind?<br />
<br /></div>
<h4>
</h4>
<h4>
Is The Dog Tag Fake?</h4>
<div>
Unlike coins, manufacturing dog tags is not considered counterfeiting and they aren't unique like a passport. They are a label to assist with identifying war casualties, like a label in a shop identifying an individual serial numbered product. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
On eBay you can buy "Genuine Dog Tags Id Military US Stainless Steel Army Dogtag" which are "Personalised" with your chosen text and I expect they are indistinguishable from one worn in combat but I wouldn't consider my one as genuine, despite the eBay definition, if it wasn't worn by Peter while on active service. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
This probably isn't Peter's first dog tag because his enlistment date was April 1942, this tag was issued after July 1943, and it records a tetanus shot in 1943. The likelihood that someone in the backwater of Ternate or thereabouts was manufacturing accurate souvenir dog tags and chains for a non existent tourist trade in 1991 embossed with accurate information that wasn't published until 2002 is low.<br />
<br />
I think it's genuine.<br />
<br /></div>
<h4>
</h4>
<h4>
Are There Other Records of Peter's Death?</h4>
<div>
There are overwhelming numbers of clickbait genealogy websites, with useful information mostly behind paywalls. I was defeated, so sought professional help from <a href="https://www.fiverr.com/sokit1966" target="_blank">Sokit1966</a> who discovered Peter's birth date to be 23 Dec 1912 and located his obituary, confirming the accuracy of <a href="https://www.archives.gov/research/military/ww2/army-casualties/illinois.html" target="_blank">WWII Army Casualty</a> records with respect to Peter.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2cbph0Qj0lPCxG4ACbDDg5OkNHTKrgseA4bN3IHAbXDsVR8IF1KX-MXDx4VWk7Q1a9RkwNWWAjsDvTrxoxXji65nI-cQ0zOVEASPWEVifZQbHSvKXTa-TUvp0ueLvLVFVf4KvuT6rNeA/s1600/Screenshot+%25282%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="498" height="165" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2cbph0Qj0lPCxG4ACbDDg5OkNHTKrgseA4bN3IHAbXDsVR8IF1KX-MXDx4VWk7Q1a9RkwNWWAjsDvTrxoxXji65nI-cQ0zOVEASPWEVifZQbHSvKXTa-TUvp0ueLvLVFVf4KvuT6rNeA/s200/Screenshot+%25282%2529.png" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12.8px;">Obituary - Chicago Tribune (Chicago, Illinois) · 13 Nov 1967, Mon · Page 42</span></td><td class="tr-caption"><br /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Peter survived the war, married a woman with four children, fathered two more and survived to 55, so we now know Peter's dog tag wasn't souvenired from a corpse. We still don't know why he left it in Ternate.<br />
<br /></div>
<h4>
</h4>
<h4>
Do Dog Tags Have Value?</h4>
<div>
They have sentimental value in militaria collections and probably to descendants but there is little commercial value as far as I can tell. </div>
<div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkjRVZopgNT7cliN2L1IbeF7pW34PofbFmZyzHzWHUhK5FHj5H2HYsL8tly5OXNE4J12eF13bVk0cOng0p4rke7Be857WDo4wy5lm5Rd5DuDNkkW_MxMdtBrGVXTZZo7vc1gVw3Wrc9yQ/s1600/Dogtag-compendium-book-erh-extreme-relic.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="452" data-original-width="320" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkjRVZopgNT7cliN2L1IbeF7pW34PofbFmZyzHzWHUhK5FHj5H2HYsL8tly5OXNE4J12eF13bVk0cOng0p4rke7Be857WDo4wy5lm5Rd5DuDNkkW_MxMdtBrGVXTZZo7vc1gVw3Wrc9yQ/s200/Dogtag-compendium-book-erh-extreme-relic.jpg" width="141" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.8px;">Some people collect dog tags.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div>
This one is listed on eBay as genuine from the Vietnam War at a mere A$25 plus postage.</div>
<div>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTNEqAZrGOdzSDiLKRm9-DPej23KWkmK5XoiECjFi6n0U5jXxnnemf4q_RJvAE5MgSH_uVaM_InRuoyx6Ay6MN6tfTpp6e6IyAFiCRyebaTBYC13Vq-6caqJQncsx-9plL0vXX917AnRM/s1600/s-l1600.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1066" data-original-width="1600" height="133" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTNEqAZrGOdzSDiLKRm9-DPej23KWkmK5XoiECjFi6n0U5jXxnnemf4q_RJvAE5MgSH_uVaM_InRuoyx6Ay6MN6tfTpp6e6IyAFiCRyebaTBYC13Vq-6caqJQncsx-9plL0vXX917AnRM/s200/s-l1600.jpg" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A US Military Dog Tag advertised as genuine from the Vietnam War available for A$25 on eBay.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div>
Given the huge numbers originally issued and the ease of manufacturing tags that are indistinguishable from those worn in combat, it seems unlikely dog tags will ever have significant monetary value.<br />
<br />
<h3>
What Was Resolved And What Wasn't?</h3>
</div>
<div>
The age of discovery led to European engagement with Ternate which eventually led to the arrival of the US army. The subsequent information age has made it possible to investigate a military artefact they left behind.<br />
<br />
The artefact was likely worn there, in combat, by Peter W Connolly but the initial assumption he was still there, missing in action, proved to be false. How Peter's dog tag came to be around the neck of a teenage boy in a place Peter fought, 46 years afterwards, will probably remain a mystery, demonstrating that, as powerful as it is, even the information age has limits.<br />
<br /></div>
<h3>
</h3>
<h3>
</h3>
<h3>
</h3>
<h3>
</h3>
<h3>
References</h3>
<div>
1. Graves Registration, War Department Field Manual FM 10-63, 15 January 1945, Washington: United States Government Printing Office, p. 22. URL: <a href="https://ia800306.us.archive.org/35/items/FM10-63/FM10-63.pdf">https://ia800306.us.archive.org/35/items/FM10-63/FM10-63.pdf</a><br />
2. Smith, R., 1963. Triumph In The Philippines. Washington DC: Office Of The Chief Of Military History Department Of The Army, p.352. URL:<a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=u9BQAQAAMAAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false">https://books.google.com.au/books?id=u9BQAQAAMAAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false</a></div>
</div>
Kenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2473504615610883562.post-8130350733799484142020-04-14T15:58:00.001+10:002020-04-14T16:04:53.983+10:00More Incentives To Bake Less BreadPreviously I pondered whether my local bakery will choose <a href="http://blog.urremote.com/2020/04/will-my-bakery-choose-to-make-money-or.html" target="_blank">to make money or bread</a> while there is a Covid-19 wage subsidy. They should be close to four times more profitable if they were to reduce bread production by two thirds. Now we rely even more on bakers altruism to get bread since the incentive to reduce baking has been further increased. Where the previous rewards were provided from community resources, these new baking reduction incentives oblige landlords to chip in.<br />
<br />
So far, I can report my local bakery has remained altruistic, or perhaps ignorant, and I can still get as much bread as I want at previous prices. While acquiring some of their delights yesterday I was able to check the assumption in the previous analysis that Covid-19 would not reduce sales. They told me "on some days they are selling as much as $500 more than they would have expected and on other days less, but on average sales haven't changed".<br />
<br />
The new incentive is an obligation on landlords to provide reduced and deferred rent. The <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/commercial-tenants-to-get-half-of-rent-reduction-waived-under-new-code-20200407-p54ht1" target="_blank">Financial Review</a> explains "In practice, if a qualifying tenant suffered a 30 per cent fall in revenue, then at least 15 per cent of total cash flow relief would be rent-free or waived and the remainder would be deferred." The <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/half-baked-action-on-commercial-rents-will-bury-many-businesses-20200408-p54i5s.html" target="_blank">Grattan Institute's program director</a> of budget policy and institutional reform, who wants larger rent reductions funded by additional community assistance to landlords, says rent is usually 20% of normal costs. Updating the model for this new incentive gives the revenue distribution in figure 1 and profitability as a proportion of original revenue in figure 2.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8sUsUWIRcSDDXKSWNxVqfGmn5YQTwVZtYsOPd-AN33_6CX0S-Mwl7feAgc5Tatl3ehgTqPFMDjm1XuVi3Nqqsi7D-m2x1fJ5LTGNoKgtHzfe38iAY0vXyoIVWHOUWy09cXPVS8sE3rAs/s1600/RevenueDistributionWithRentReduction.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="742" data-original-width="1200" height="394" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8sUsUWIRcSDDXKSWNxVqfGmn5YQTwVZtYsOPd-AN33_6CX0S-Mwl7feAgc5Tatl3ehgTqPFMDjm1XuVi3Nqqsi7D-m2x1fJ5LTGNoKgtHzfe38iAY0vXyoIVWHOUWy09cXPVS8sE3rAs/s640/RevenueDistributionWithRentReduction.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.8px;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 1px solid rgb(238, 238, 238); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1) 1px 1px 5px; color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: 15.4px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 5px; position: relative; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.32px;">Figure 1 - Comparison of bakery revenue distributions with Jobkeeper plus rent reduction scenarios. Source:<a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vR7hC32Eaep97tRZSjsYYu1B23A8VgWQAu3ENAL_qleWscvtr02BqLQBUzCjT_oqpf5AjSfgWUSTJ0i/pubhtml" style="color: #888888; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"> Model</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieLhEymn-_b03n_t85fgJRG9_4YjVB5UyM6hgH8p5XUm1CMjOy4ZXem7NOQNyFLefTJ5NlcqW6p_dgkdLgjFSJnH-yPVwBuNk5APzIR8g-meeMv9yqATIvenvbBXhttCa0OGLbqGhmC7Q/s1600/ProfitWithRentReductions.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="742" data-original-width="1200" height="394" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieLhEymn-_b03n_t85fgJRG9_4YjVB5UyM6hgH8p5XUm1CMjOy4ZXem7NOQNyFLefTJ5NlcqW6p_dgkdLgjFSJnH-yPVwBuNk5APzIR8g-meeMv9yqATIvenvbBXhttCa0OGLbqGhmC7Q/s640/ProfitWithRentReductions.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 12.8px;">Figure 2 - Comparison of original profitability with Jobkeeper </span><span style="font-size: 12.8px;"> and rent reductions</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 12.8px;"><br />profitability. </span><span style="font-size: 12.8px;">Source:</span><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vR7hC32Eaep97tRZSjsYYu1B23A8VgWQAu3ENAL_qleWscvtr02BqLQBUzCjT_oqpf5AjSfgWUSTJ0i/pubhtml" style="font-size: 12.8px;" target="_blank"> Model</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
That gets absolute bakery profitability up by a factor greater than four so the bakery can generate more profit in the next six months of Jobkeeper than would normally be achieved in two years. The landlord funded anti baking incentives are much smaller than community funded incentives but they make it a bit less likely the baker can ignore the temptation to increase profit and a bit more likely I'll have to eat less bread and more rice in a few months time.<br />
<br />Kenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2473504615610883562.post-29280417338971156322020-04-04T14:13:00.001+11:002020-05-15T21:10:42.600+10:00Will My Bakery Choose To Make Money or Bread?<i><a href="https://quoteinvestigator.com/2015/12/18/live/" target="_blank">May You Live In Interesting Times</a></i><br />
<i><br /></i>
I delight in bread from the local bakery. The anticipation as I walk a few minutes from home to acquire the treasure, the smell of the shop, the choosing and the build in excitement as I head back home to savour the prize. It's especially good if it's still warm but will it still be affordable and available in the new world of wacky economic incentives?<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUrWlKTZgsSrIQS-8UJaRD48wAHRRm-Qz4yCBHjPy5xLCS4xzhShi_IM3o_LuDlZ80Uu9exoMJnwxBjfNnIyzqam3CC8ez9iNIXKiBWMqK-ELarTloWblNHrUc8vzgcz8yFjgRgGsqIC8/s1600/Businesses_1489_18_bread1_detail.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="385" data-original-width="585" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUrWlKTZgsSrIQS-8UJaRD48wAHRRm-Qz4yCBHjPy5xLCS4xzhShi_IM3o_LuDlZ80Uu9exoMJnwxBjfNnIyzqam3CC8ez9iNIXKiBWMqK-ELarTloWblNHrUc8vzgcz8yFjgRgGsqIC8/s320/Businesses_1489_18_bread1_detail.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Artisan Bread Is A Treasure</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
The bread is not much more expensive than factory bread and with everyone getting double the previous unemployment benefit or at least <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-31/coronavirus-jobkeeper-payment-vs-jobseeker-payment/12105290" target="_blank">70% of the pre coronavirus median wage</a> it is a small luxury we should all be able to afford. I expect the demand for artisan bread will increase as the customer base sits at home pondering the delights of the next meal but the bakery owner has a strong incentive to leave more than 30% of existing customers unsatisfied.<br />
<br />
Without government incentive the bakery will be making at least as much profit as before and probably a little more but if turnover can be reduced by 30% the bakery can make a motza. Flour is cheap so rent and wages would be most of the bakery's expenses, let's guess wages are two thirds. Staff work two shifts daily seven days a week and they are part time. From friends that have worked there I've learned they pay minimum wage, so the $1500 per employee will mean a pay rise for staff while taking out direct wage costs for the bakery. There is still some staff overheads so overall staff expenses are reduced by perhaps 75%. The previous and new revenue distribution is shown in Figure 1.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaLLKjFv1PXdqNwR1qm8pPOczpvomjU7cQj3yYO7nEQrXCM5gSLuW9Y7cMLW5nEyZwOt8CslHJooY7Jt5Ozi9WulHIdSLDgblEHCpes62K0B-zJy4Mb_bL8buk56FzG3-5hyAoDfNwm_Q/s1600/RevenueDistributionGraph.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="742" data-original-width="1200" height="393" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaLLKjFv1PXdqNwR1qm8pPOczpvomjU7cQj3yYO7nEQrXCM5gSLuW9Y7cMLW5nEyZwOt8CslHJooY7Jt5Ozi9WulHIdSLDgblEHCpes62K0B-zJy4Mb_bL8buk56FzG3-5hyAoDfNwm_Q/s640/RevenueDistributionGraph.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 1 - Comparison of bakery revenue distributions with two Jobkeeper scenarios. Source:<a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vR7hC32Eaep97tRZSjsYYu1B23A8VgWQAu3ENAL_qleWscvtr02BqLQBUzCjT_oqpf5AjSfgWUSTJ0i/pubhtml" target="_blank"> Model</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
Profit before was perhaps 5% of turnover but now it is 11%. That is lot more profit as a proportion of turnover but on a 30% lower turnover, it's less impressive but still more dollars. But how is the bakery to achieve the turnover reduction? The best way is to increase prices but if a 30% price rise reduced bread sales by 30% turnover would be unchanged and the bakery still wouldn't get Jobkeeper. Assume prices are doubled to reduce by roughly two thirds the quantity of bread sold they open less days, then that will lower expenses again. Lets assume wage costs are halved again and other expenses are halved, but rent is fixed so that rises as a proportion of costs. This produces a fabulous 40% profitability but again on a lower turnover. The profit under all these scenarios as a proportion of original turnover is shown in figure 2.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzWvrJ6Qtn4_zXpGnetblHJSU7p4z7_o_DYs0PmWL8QSKMq3xVyuiIgOX_uxlYUXdjWv0d93rD2voETssGrN6fL_O3fRuVJIv5yUjBty9AutTRsY_waEyWjXPIFeZcd-9zr8V9XylYHYQ/s1600/Profit.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="742" data-original-width="1200" height="394" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzWvrJ6Qtn4_zXpGnetblHJSU7p4z7_o_DYs0PmWL8QSKMq3xVyuiIgOX_uxlYUXdjWv0d93rD2voETssGrN6fL_O3fRuVJIv5yUjBty9AutTRsY_waEyWjXPIFeZcd-9zr8V9XylYHYQ/s640/Profit.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12.8px;">Figure 2 - Comparison of original profitability with Jobkeeper profitability. </span><span style="font-size: 12.8px;">Source:</span><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vR7hC32Eaep97tRZSjsYYu1B23A8VgWQAu3ENAL_qleWscvtr02BqLQBUzCjT_oqpf5AjSfgWUSTJ0i/pubhtml" style="font-size: 12.8px;" target="_blank"> Model</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
There is still nearly four times the original total profit achieved. In the next 6 months the bakery can generate as profit that normally would take nearly 2 years. How good is that? For the bakery great, but for me not so much. I'll probably have to go back to factory bread and if the factory responds the same way I'll be eating perhaps a third of the bread I eat now while paying twice as much.<br />
<br />
I hope the bakery owner cares more about making bread than making money.Kenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2473504615610883562.post-37338932924060273572020-02-16T10:15:00.000+11:002020-02-16T10:15:34.389+11:00From 1988 - A Typing Service PlanSee: <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTcQrX7NH4ZESjg1Rjs3rcapRMP4SYtGrz6OptO7ZPeZWANPUKmj4E6oXlm-8ROFLxFUERqH1_59ORs/pub" target="_blank">The plan</a>.<br />
<br />
I’m reviewing and disposing of detritus accumulated over a lifetime. It’s interesting to see what’s changed and what hasn’t. My engineering lecture notes of 35 years ago aren’t that much different to what my son, studying engineering now, is familiar with. The foundation subjects are pretty much the same but his handwritten lecture notes are less extensive. We used to take notes as it was explained, where now the notes are mostly online. Those notes were a useful reference for me, even years later but are useless now as the quality of search results is so much better than old lecture notes. To me, that the same things are taught 35 years later is an indication of the quality of what engineers learn. So much other stuff taught in universities 35 years ago proved to be faddish. Amongst the detritus, I came across <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTcQrX7NH4ZESjg1Rjs3rcapRMP4SYtGrz6OptO7ZPeZWANPUKmj4E6oXlm-8ROFLxFUERqH1_59ORs/pub" target="_blank">my plan</a> from 1988 to start an international typing service. The internet didn’t exist, international phone calls cost the earth and fax machine adoption was growing fast.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img height="292" src="https://docs.google.com/drawings/u/0/d/sRFyW3XGF0MPky0LzzBW87g/image?w=461&h=292&rev=196&ac=1&parent=1Q7EzgLLsVhoSgWjoFdM9cpeyS3cKk9BqJGYAOWeRlws" style="border: none; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;" width="461" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Graph of adoption of fax machines versus time illustrates the actual and calculated adoption of fax from 1980. By 1994 approximately 59% of the potential market had actually adopted fax. Source: Lyons, Michael & Adjali, Iqbal & Collings, David & Jensen, Kjeld. (2002). Complex Systems Models for Strategic Decision Making.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
It was possible to rent a permanent satellite voice link to the Philippines for $A400 per day (A$950 in 2019 dollars) and send data over that link at the piddling rate of 9600 bps. Typist, even as a job description, no longer exists but typing services were big back then. Mostly the work arrived hand written and typists in the Philippines earned much lower wages than Australian typists. Modelling suggested it would be very profitable to provide an offshore typing service but the high fixed costs meant it had to be done on a large scale and if I got it wrong and failed it would be painful. I also had the opportunity to move to an engineering role in the iron ore industry and that in the end is what I chose, so the plan was never tested.<br />
<br />
Reviewing the plan with the benefit of 30 years of hindsight:-<br />
<div>
<ol>
<li>It would have been exciting to have tried but the level of risk looks as scary now as it did then.</li>
<li>To minimise risk a slow start up strategy was planned that didn’t offer enough advantage to customers in the first instance. That in itself creates the risk that the service will never get to the stage where it works. If I did it now it would be boots and all or don’t bother trying.</li>
<li>The format which followed what I’d been taught at a TAFE business course still looks good.</li>
<li>In retrospect it would have been an opportune time for such a service. There was nothing like it and the technology it required was subsequently adopted widely. The early internet was only a few years away which would have reduced costs dramatically and typing service businesses lasted long enough for the service to have more than recouped costs. It might have been a good structure for adding other forms of outsourcing as they developed and translation is considered in the plan.</li>
<li>It was a comprehensive plan. I was trying hard to get everything right as a risk reduction strategy. A plan that detailed would change a lot in adoption but changes as they occurred could be made to the financial model to provide early indications of likely results.</li>
<li>Almost all typists were women with many leaving the job to raise children and not returning. This wasn’t controversial back then but it would be now.</li>
<li>Typists were earning about A$12 per hour at the time and the typing services were charging about A$25. The model estimated overheads of one third which I know for most businesses today is too low. I understand a rule of thumb is hourly cost is twice the hourly pay rate and CSIRO for example, when I was there was 2.7 times. Have overheads risen in the past 30 years or was my estimate too low? If double the hourly rate was appropriate back then typing services would have been struggling to make money at the prices they were charging.</li>
<li>Letters were expensive to produce back then which made them far more likely to convey useful information than the bumf we are deluged with today.</li>
<li>Mechanical typewriters no longer exist but it wasn’t that long ago and more than 80% of typing was done mechanically at the time. The use of word processing was predicted to double in the next year which is probably close to what happened, as mechanical typewriters disappeared fast.</li>
<li>Governments didn’t use external labour much in those days so typing for government wasn’t considered an accessible market. These days governments seem to outsource almost everything. The places I worked at the time all had typing pools and I still remember the fear of having to ask for something to be retyped to fix a drafting error. </li>
<li>The marketing plan looks crude. I doubt that was ever my raison d'etre and I’ve since come to the view that quality marketing is usually more important than a quality product.</li>
</ol>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<span id="docs-internal-guid-d0e8b3bc-7fff-ab5d-dde2-a3aecdf7436b"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></span></div>
Kenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2473504615610883562.post-5229489168320875612017-11-10T01:19:00.000+11:002017-11-17T14:38:44.847+11:00Paying People Not To Use Electricity - ACCC SubmissionThis is a response to calls for feedback on the ACCC Retail Electricity Pricing Inquiry - Preliminary Report<sup><a href="#ACCC1">[1]</a></sup>. This response is intended to encourage the ACCC to look more closely at perverse forms of demand response. Background articles in this series are <a href="http://blog.urremote.com/2017/10/paying-people-not-to-use-electricity.html" target="_blank">Paying People Not To Use Electricity - A Beautiful Scam</a>, <a href="http://blog.urremote.com/2017/10/paying-people-not-to-use-electricity_26.html" target="_blank">Paying People Not To Use Electricity - The Fatal Flaw</a> and <a href="http://blog.urremote.com/2017/11/paying-people-not-to-use-electricity.html" target="_blank">Paying People Not To Use Electricity - The Economics</a>.<br /><br /> Thanks to colleagues at MakeHackVoid who provided advice on this submission, in particular Paul Harvey and René.
<br />
<br />
<h2>
ACCC Submission</h2>
<br />
The ACCC Retail Electricity Pricing Inquiry - Preliminary Report <sup><a href="#ACCC1">[1]</a></sup> concludes demand response "has the potential to
facilitate consumers reducing their demand at peak times, and could thereby reduce the
need for costly new generation and network infrastructure."<sup><a href="#ACCC2">[2]</a></sup>. Demand response though, takes many forms and the inquiry has thus far not considered a form of demand response that contains perverse incentives and which involves payment by volume for a volume that can't be measured. The preliminary report states the "ACCC will be
mindful of the history of interventions in this market which have too often had unintended
consequences to the detriment of electricity users." It is likely that the intervention in the wholesale market to create mechanisms to provide payments to consumers and non consumption aggregators for not consuming electricity is another of those interventions. The concept has got a lot of attention in the popular press<sup><a href="#News1">[3]</a></sup><sup><a href="#Advertiser1">[4]</a></sup>.<br />
<br />
While not described this way by proponents the gist is to provide electricity to consumers at below cost and then pay consumers not to buy it. It is impossible to measure electricity not consumed so non consumption must be estimated from historical usage. This provides an incentive for consumers on fixed rate supply contracts to shift loads as far as practicable into times of high demand to maximise the payment for switching off, the opposite of what is desired. Air conditioners in particular could be more profitably run flat out whenever wholesale electricity prices are high as it is hot weather that causes wholesale price peaks and they provide a large load that can be switched off for payment. The argument for selling electricity at below cost is contained in a 2015 CSIRO study<sup><a href="#CSIRO1">[5]</a></sup>. It states, "Consumers are particularly resistant to real-time pricing and (especially) capacity pricing, presumably on account of their greater novelty and complexity (hence, perceived risk), and pervasive mistrust and rejection of the concept that electricity should cost more depending upon demand."<sup><a href="#CSIRO2">[6]</a></sup> Therefore a "flat rate tariff offer with money-back guarantee achieves an unparalleled level of consumer acceptance, unmatched by any other combination of tariff and risk relief."<sup><a href="#CSIRO3">[7]</a></sup> Hardly surprising really, who wouldn't want to consume what they like at below cost and get paid if they don't.<br />
<br />
The rational alternative for demand response is for retailers to sell electricity to consumers at cost plus a margin. This has the advantages that:-<br />
<ul>
<li>The amount consumed can be measured. </li>
<li>Consumers who choose to switch off can capture the full benefit of doing so rather than having to share it with a service provider. </li>
<li>Consumers can still seek assistance from a service provider when the effort of monitoring prices plus managing loads is too high for the benefit gained without assistance.</li>
<li>The financial incentive is to shift consumption as much as practicable to times of low demand which aligns with the goal of reducing peaks in demand.</li>
</ul>
<div>
There is also a push to take this further and implement a scheme where non consumption of electricity can be used to increase prices for consumption of electricity by selling non consumption into the electricity market as if it was equivalent to electricity generation. The rationale for this is described in a ClimateWorks report<sup><a href="#ClimateWorks1">[8]</a></sup> where selling non consumption as if it were production is described as necessary because reducing consumption "has the potential to reduce market prices at peak times when the marginal generator is high cost. However the benefits of the reduced price are shared by all market participants and cannot be effectively captured by the DSR provider"<sup><a href="#ClimateWorks2">[9]</a></sup>. Therefore, non consumption should be able to be bid into the market as equivalent to generation which has the effect of increasing the wholesale electricity price.<br />
<br />
There is an example of this being trialed currently. As reported in the Financial Review<sup><a href="#AFR1">[10]</a></sup>, "Intercast & Forge have committed to deliver 10 megawatts of electricity off the grid when asked to by the Australian Energy Market Operator, for which it will receive $323,654 in funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency"<sup><a href="#AFR1">[10]</a></sup>. The "company had already saved $600,000 on their power bills in the past three months alone - from being on the spot market rather than a long-term contract with a retailer as well as turning their four furnaces off for a total of 39 minutes, normally for five minutes or less, during peak periods."<sup><a href="#AFR1">[10]</a></sup><br />
<br />
So this large consumer is already reducing demand during peaks by responding to price signals for their own economic benefit but is now to be paid extra to maintain consumption until asked to switch off. If that payment is to come from other electricity consumers through an increase in the wholesale price, as eventually intended, it can only result in a sub optimal economic outcome. It creates an obligation to maintain consumption when it is already uneconomic until asked to switch off, and an incentive to consume when uneconomic so as to have consumption that can be sold as available to be switched off. Funds extracted from other consumers through higher prices will be used to fund uneconomic consumption, to the detriment of other electricity users.<br />
<br />
An attempt to introduce a demand response mechanism into the wholesale market was rejected in 2016. According to Finkel the "AEMC decided not to introduce the proposed mechanism on the basis that it would be costly to implement and that consumers can already contract with retailers and specialist providers, and can choose to be exposed to the wholesale market spot price through their retail contract"<sup><a href="#Finkel">[11]</a></sup>. The reasons given by the Australian Energy Markets Commission for rejecting this rule change request in the Final Determination<sup><a href="#AEMC1">[12]</a></sup> under the headings "Demand response mechanism" and "Overview of determination to not implement the DRM" remain valid and should be considered by the ACCC in the interest of consumers.
Finkel goes on to say "If unscheduled participation in the wholesale market as proposed in the 2015 rule change is not appropriate, there are other options in use around the world, including demand response participation in reliability markets in New York and Texas. The important thing is that a suitable option capable of unlocking the vital benefits of demand response is chosen"<sup><a href="#Finkel">[11]</a></sup>. The design of the NEM means the "suitable option capable of unlocking the vital benefits" is the exposure of consumers to the wholesale price and despite the claims of proponents "there are no DRM –like arrangements in any market that is designed similarly to the NEM"<sup><a href="#AEMC2">[13]</a></sup>. Eastern Australia has a wholesale price, which can be 150 times the average price during peaks and many consumers, including Intercast & Forge<sup><a href="#AFR1">[10]</a></sup> are reducing consumption when the price of electricity is too high. Electricity plans that made wholesale plus a margin rates available to smaller consumers would make that opportunity available to all and encourage manufacturers to incorporate automation in devices that balanced desirability of device consumption against current price.<br />
<br />
There is a variety of mechanisms suggested for paying people not to consume electricity but they all suffer the same fundamental flaw. The amount of electricity that would have been consumed in the absence of payment not to consume it is unknowable. Under a likely model, aggregators will be selling non consumption by volume into the wholesale electricity market when the volume can't be measured. In the interests of shareholders they will be obliged to sell as much as possible, so the aggregation business is likely to become another of those interventions with unintended consequences to the detriment of electricity users.<br />
<br />
<h2>
Further Reading
</h2>
<br />
Some background material was also written in preparation for this submission which is available at blog.urremote.com
<br />
<br />
<h2>
References</h2>
</div>
<ol>
<li id="ACCC1"> <cite id="ACCCReport"><span style="font-style: normal;">Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (2017), <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/ACCC%20Retail%20Electricity%20Pricing%20Inquiry%20-%20Preliminary%20Report%20-%2022%20September%202017.pdf" target="_blank">"Retail Electricity Pricing Inquiry Preliminary report"</a>, 22 September 2017,
https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/ACCC%20Retail%20Electricity%20Pricing%20Inquiry%20-%20Preliminary%20Report%20-%2022%20September%202017.pdf</span></cite></li>
<li id="ACCC2"> <cite id="ACCCReport"><span style="font-style: normal;"><a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/ACCC%20Retail%20Electricity%20Pricing%20Inquiry%20-%20Preliminary%20Report%20-%2022%20September%202017.pdf" target="_blank">ibid</a>, pg 86</span></cite></li>
<li id="News1"> <cite id="News"><span style="font-style: normal;">Charis Chang (2017),<a href="http://www.news.com.au/finance/money/budgeting/households-will-be-paid-to-reduce-power-consumption-during-peak-periods/news-story/5ce9fc72bdf789569d8069fdbdf45e39" target="_blank"> Households will be paid to reduce power consumption during peak periods</a>, News.com.au, http://www.news.com.au/finance/money/budgeting/households-will-be-paid-to-reduce-power-consumption-during-peak-periods/news-story/5ce9fc72bdf789569d8069fdbdf45e39</span></cite></li>
<li id="Advertiser1"> <cite id="Advertiser"><span style="font-style: normal;">Sheradyn Holderhead (2017),<a href="http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/arena-projects-to-prevent-blackouts-deliver-200mw-of-capacity-to-the-grid/news-story/c9c3c7932d1d8797076d423d83786d09" target="_blank"> ARENA projects to prevent blackouts deliver 200MW of capacity to the grid</a>, October 11 2017, TheAdvertiser, http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/arena-projects-to-prevent-blackouts-deliver-200mw-of-capacity-to-the-grid/news-story/c9c3c7932d1d8797076d423d83786d09 </span></cite></li>
<li id="CSIRO1"> <cite id="CSIROReport"><span style="font-style: normal;">Karen Stenner, Elisha Frederiks, Elizabeth V. Hobman and Sarah Meikle (2015), <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/download?pid=csiro:EP152667&dsid=DS2" target="_blank">"Australian Consumers’ Likely Response to Cost Reflective Electricity Pricing"</a>, CSIRO, Australia, https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/download?pid=csiro:EP152667&dsid=DS2</span></cite></li>
<li id="CSIRO2"> <cite id="CSIROReport"><span style="font-style: normal;"><a href="https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/download?pid=csiro:EP152667&dsid=DS2" target="_blank">ibid</a>, pg 26</span></cite></li>
<li id="CSIRO3"> <cite id="CSIROReport"><span style="font-style: normal;"><a href="https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/download?pid=csiro:EP152667&dsid=DS2" target="_blank">ibid</a>, pg 6</span></cite></li>
<li id="ClimateWorks1"> <cite id="ClimateWorksReport"><span style="font-style: normal;">ClimateWorks Australia (2013), <a href="https://climateworks.com.au/sites/default/files/documents/publications/climateworks_industrial_demand_side_response_potential_feb2014.pdf" target="_blank">"Industrial demand side response potential Technical potential and factors influencing uptake Initial findings and discussion paper"</a>,ClimateWorks Australia, February 2014, https://climateworks.com.au/sites/default/files/documents/publications/climateworks_industrial_demand_side_response_potential_feb2014.pdf</span></cite></li>
<li id="ClimateWorks2"> <cite id="ClimateWorksReport"><span style="font-style: normal;"><a href="https://climateworks.com.au/sites/default/files/documents/publications/climateworks_industrial_demand_side_response_potential_feb2014.pdf" target="_blank">ibid</a>, pg 16</span></cite></li>
<li id="AFR1"> <cite id="AFR-Article"><span style="font-style: normal;">Mark Ludlow, Ben Potter, Angela Macdonald-Smith (2017), <a href="http://www.afr.com/business/energy/electricity/powershop-united-energy-metal-foundry-sign-up-for-demand-response-trial-20171010-gyydxu" target="_blank">"Powershop, United Energy, metal foundry sign up for demand response trial
</a>,Australian Financial Review, Oct 11 2017, http://www.afr.com/business/energy/electricity/powershop-united-energy-metal-foundry-sign-up-for-demand-response-trial-20171010-gyydxu</span></cite></li>
<li id="Finkel"><cite id="Finkel-Review"><span style="font-style: normal;">Dr Alan Finkel (2017), <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/1d6b0464-6162-4223-ac08-3395a6b1c7fa/files/electricity-market-review-final-report.pdf" target="_blank">"Independent Review into the Future Security of the National Electricity Market: Blueprint for the Future</a>, The Commonwealth of Australia, pg 148, https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/1d6b0464-6162-4223-ac08-3395a6b1c7fa/files/electricity-market-review-final-report.pdf</span></cite></li>
<li id="AEMC1"><cite id="AEMC"><span style="font-style: normal;">AEMC (2016), <a href="http://www.aemc.gov.au/getattachment/68cb8114-113d-4d96-91dc-5cb4b0f9e0ae/Final-determination.aspx" target="_blank">" (Demand Response Mechanism and Ancillary Services Unbundling), Final Rule Determination</a>, 24 November 2016, Sydney, http://www.aemc.gov.au/getattachment/68cb8114-113d-4d96-91dc-5cb4b0f9e0ae/Final-determination.aspx</span></cite></li>
<li id="AEMC2"> <cite id="AEMC"><span style="font-style: normal;"><a href="http://www.aemc.gov.au/getattachment/68cb8114-113d-4d96-91dc-5cb4b0f9e0ae/Final-determination.aspx" target="_blank">ibid</a>, pg 18</span></cite></li>
</ol>
Kenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.com50tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2473504615610883562.post-4217507201776062372017-11-03T14:24:00.000+11:002017-11-03T14:32:36.288+11:00Paying People Not To Use Electricity - The EconomicsIn the first article in the series on paying people not to consume electricity I identified the idea as a <a href="http://blog.urremote.com/2017/10/paying-people-not-to-use-electricity.html" target="_blank">beautiful scam</a> and in the second explored the <a href="http://blog.urremote.com/2017/10/paying-people-not-to-use-electricity_26.html" target="_blank">fatal flaw</a>. Here I examine the economics of paying people not to consume electricity.<br />
<br />
<h2>
The Economics Of Paying People To Switch Off</h2>
<div>
<br />
Retailers buy electricity in the wholesale market at a price that is set every thirty minutes and sell this electricity to customers at a fixed price that reflects an average wholesale price plus a margin (<a href="https://www.ipart.nsw.gov.au/files/sharedassets/website/shared-files/investigation-compliance-monitoring-electricity-publications-market-monitoring-201617/draft-report-performance-and-competitiveness-of-the-retail-electricity-market-in-nsw-october-2017.pdf" target="_blank">see IPART Report</a>). Consumers are paying of the order of $0.20 per kilowatt hour (exc. GST <a href="http://static.urremote.com/Energy%20offer%20search%20results%20_%20Energy%20Made%20Easy.mhtml" target="_blank">ACTEWAGL ACT November 2017</a>) but at times of extreme demand the retailer will be paying the maximum market price of $13.80 for that same kilowatt hour (<a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/PDF/National-Electricity-Market-Fact-Sheet.pdf" target="_blank">January 2015</a>). Therefore there is $13.60 saved if the consumer doesn't consume that kilowatt hour of electricity, a portion of which can be payed to the consumer to encourage that outcome. So the funds for paying people to switch off comes from the savings made by not selling them electricity at below cost in the first place.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiu0Jra_Y7XYnpsku4t5UlaER1mnenuw6lPpenvk6ZY3kVmUboVeE2FGMQfuBPswVdIZMg_pR_5acfh-V1LImfMlK5ckGaMVkxWP99GRzQ9mBAteo4oZlNh6kIsFcqmBoKHZtu72cgR1XQ/s1600/evidence-emperors-new-clothes.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="635" data-original-width="896" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiu0Jra_Y7XYnpsku4t5UlaER1mnenuw6lPpenvk6ZY3kVmUboVeE2FGMQfuBPswVdIZMg_pR_5acfh-V1LImfMlK5ckGaMVkxWP99GRzQ9mBAteo4oZlNh6kIsFcqmBoKHZtu72cgR1XQ/s320/evidence-emperors-new-clothes.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">It is impossible to know how much electricity hasn't been consumed unlike the <a href="http://www.andersen.sdu.dk/vaerk/hersholt/TheEmperorsNewClothes_e.html" target="_blank">emperor</a> who had to suffer the ignominy of overwhelming evidence.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
The economics is made more complicated by it being impossible to know how much electricity would have been consumed in the absence of a payment. Therefore, an amount of electricity not consumed does not necessarily equal a reduction in electricity generated. It is hardly surprising then, that when <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/Media-Centre/AEMO-and-ARENA-demand-response-trial-to-provide-200MW-of-emergency-reserves-for-extreme-peaks" target="_blank">AEMO ran a trial</a> "the funding round had well exceeded the 160 MW initially hoped for, and cost less than expected". Ultimately there is no limit to the amount of electricity that isn't consumed.<br />
<br /></div>
<h2>
Rational Economics</h2>
<br />
An alternative to selling electricity at below cost then paying consumers not to buy it is to sell it at cost plus a margin. This has the advantages that the electricity consumed can be metered and the price signals encourage consumers to use less when the price is high. It's also efficient, the consumer captures the whole economic value by paying nothing for what wasn't consumed.<br />
<br />
<h2>
Why Not Rational Economics? - One Reason</h2>
<br />
To quote from a 2015 CSIRO study titled "<a href="https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/download?pid=csiro:EP152667&dsid=DS2" target="_blank">Australian Consumers’ Likely Response to Cost Reflective Electricity Pricing</a>" demand response is not being structured this way because "Consumers are particularly resistant to real-time pricing and (especially) capacity pricing, presumably on account of their greater novelty and complexity (hence, perceived risk), and pervasive mistrust and rejection of the concept that electricity should cost more depending upon demand." Therefore a "flat rate tariff offer with money-back guarantee achieves an unparalleled level of consumer acceptance, unmatched by any other combination of tariff and risk relief."<br />
<br />
That is the same argument that was advanced when I was part of this team back in 2004. So there you have it, consumers "rejection of the concept that electricity should cost more depending upon demand", is the intellectual justification for paying people not to consume below cost electricity. Hardly surprising really, who wouldn't want to consume what they like at below cost and get paid if they don't.<br />
<br />
<h2>
Why Not Rational Economics? - Another Unspoken Reason</h2>
<br />
When I was working on this electricity was cheap reliable and intervals of extreme pricing were rare. Genuine improvements were hard. I estimated there was very roughly $100 per year of value available for a residential consumer with an air conditioner, who avoided price peaks. Capturing this value required new interval metering, new electricity plans, information systems to convey price data automatically to devices and devices able to respond to price signals. This is challenging to do for less than $100 per year and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Framing_effect_(psychology)" target="_blank">framing</a> the problem this way makes it obvious. If you can frame demand response as people getting paid for "reducing the need for supply-side infrastructure" which "delivers lower electricity prices to all consumers" and also add some mystery it is far more salable (<a href="http://cmeaustralia.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/120822-final-avoided-cost-report-for-ENERNOC.pdf" target="_blank">Reducing electricity costs through Demand Response in the National Electricity Market A report funded by EnerNOC</a>).<br />
<br />
The product companies could sell is non consumption of electricity as if it was equivalent to generated electricity. It is an excellent <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boondoggle" target="_blank">boondogle</a>. In the <a href="http://www.andersen.sdu.dk/vaerk/hersholt/TheEmperorsNewClothes_e.html" target="_blank">emperor story</a> - <i>"I'll send my honest old minister to the weavers," the Emperor decided. 'He'll be the best one to tell me how the material looks, for he's a sensible man and no one does his duty better.' </i>The minister however, fearing for his own position told the weavers - '<i>Oh, it's beautiful it's enchanting.' The old minister peered through his spectacles. 'Such a pattern, what colors!' I'll be sure to tell the Emperor how delighted I am with it." </i>Similarly the researchers would be more successful in obtaining support and in turn provide credibility for the boondogle. Over time the researchers and the demand response industry intermingled.<br />
<br />
<h2>
Another Trustworthy Official</h2>
<br />
From <a href="http://www.andersen.sdu.dk/vaerk/hersholt/TheEmperorsNewClothes_e.html" target="_blank">our story</a><i> - The Emperor presently sent another trustworthy official to see how the work progressed and how soon it would be ready...</i><i> He declared he was delighted with the beautiful colors and the exquisite pattern. To the Emperor he said, "It held me spellbound." </i>The government sent their chief scientist who concluded in Recomendation 6.7 that authorities "recommend a mechanism that facilitates demand response in the wholesale energy market" (<a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/1d6b0464-6162-4223-ac08-3395a6b1c7fa/files/electricity-market-review-final-report.pdf" target="_blank">Finkel review</a> - Independent Review into
the Future Security of the
National Electricity Market, Blueprint for the Future, June 2017).<br />
<br />
<h2>
Taking It To The Next Level</h2>
<br />
If there is success in reducing consumption it "has the potential to reduce market prices at peak times when the marginal generator is high cost. However the benefits of the reduced price are shared by all market participants and cannot be effectively captured by the DSR provider." (<a href="https://climateworks.com.au/sites/default/files/documents/publications/climateworks_industrial_demand_side_response_potential_feb2014.pdf" target="_blank">ClimateWorks Pg 16</a>). So to make sure reducing consumption doesn't reduce price, proponents want to treat reduced consumption as increased generation.<br />
<br />
Under current schemes, the savings for paying people not to consume comes from consumers being able to buy electricity at below cost. This limits the people that can be paid not to consume to small retail customers. This innovation provides a method of extending the opportunity to large consumers who don't get electricity below cost. They too, will now have an incentive to switch loads into peaks to raise prices until they too are paid to switch off. The opportunity exists because of the extraordinarily high multiple of peak to <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/wholesale-markets/wholesale-statistics/annual-volume-weighted-average-spot-prices" target="_blank">average prices</a> of approximately one hundred and fifty.<br />
<br />
Depending on the algorithm used to calculate the consumption estimate, it may even be economic to burn electricity just to create an inventory that can be switched off for a payment.<br />
<br />
<h2>
A Case Study</h2>
<div>
<br />
Intercast & Forge is one of 10 companies which have won tenders to supply up to 200 megawatts of "demand response" electricity to help keep the lights on in the eastern states of Australia this summer.<br />
<br />
Intercast & Forge have committed to deliver 10 megawatts of electricity off the grid when asked to by the Australian Energy Market Operator, for which it will receive $323,654 in funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency. (<a href="http://www.afr.com/business/energy/electricity/powershop-united-energy-metal-foundry-sign-up-for-demand-response-trial-20171010-gyydxu" target="_blank">AFR Oct 11 2017</a>)<br />
<br />
The "company had already saved $600,000 on their power bills in the past three months alone - from being on the spot market rather than a long-term contract with a retailer as well as turning their four furnaces off for a total of 39 minutes, normally for five minutes or less, during peak periods." (<a href="http://www.afr.com/business/energy/electricity/powershop-united-energy-metal-foundry-sign-up-for-demand-response-trial-20171010-gyydxu" target="_blank">AFR Oct 11 2017</a>)<br />
<br />
So here we have a large consumer that is already reducing demand during peaks by responding rationally to price signals for their own economic benefit but is now to be paid extra to maintain consumption until asked to switch off. The obligation to maintain consumption when it is already uneconomic, until asked to switch off, can only produce higher prices for other electricity consumers and creates an incentive to increase the amount available to be switched off.<br />
<br /></div>
Kenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2473504615610883562.post-51322590625184518462017-10-26T15:53:00.000+11:002017-10-27T17:53:42.814+11:00Paying People Not To Use Electricity - The Fatal FlawIn the <a href="http://blog.urremote.com/2017/10/paying-people-not-to-use-electricity.html">first article</a> of this series I identified a beautiful scam. In this article I explore the fatal flaw that makes it possible. It wasn't obvious to me at first and given the community enthusiasm for paying people not to use electricity, it mustn't be obvious to most others either.<br />
<br />
Without hearing the proponents pitch, people I've discussed this with have said that's daft I don't believe anyone would think otherwise, just as the implausibility made the <a href="http://www.andersen.sdu.dk/vaerk/hersholt/TheEmperorsNewClothes_e.html" target="_blank">emperors story</a> unappealing when I was a child. However, my colleagues thought paying people not to use electricity was inspired. For me the concept is so obviously daft<span style="background-color: #fff9ee;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif;"><span style="font-size: 15.4px;"> </span></span></span>it defies belief that it could have lasted this long and grown into <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/networks-pipelines/guidelines-schemes-models-reviews/demand-management-incentive-scheme-and-innovation-allowance-mechanism" target="_blank">government policy</a><br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixLq0gOgrRRtLl3ZZZsrFSXrSzN7IkYyoW3_ltO-aY9H7vt6hg8VIHDV33Ee-c0veTFPywoClMPoCg_aYr2SEN9lf_fRJDm8ALgQLbbcDvve9SLPD4036h3oNpq9hkGq_Nf9DOCce5ISQ/s1600/3-005.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="296" data-original-width="550" height="172" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixLq0gOgrRRtLl3ZZZsrFSXrSzN7IkYyoW3_ltO-aY9H7vt6hg8VIHDV33Ee-c0veTFPywoClMPoCg_aYr2SEN9lf_fRJDm8ALgQLbbcDvve9SLPD4036h3oNpq9hkGq_Nf9DOCce5ISQ/s320/3-005.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Once you know, it can never be seen the same way again. The genius can be admired but the wonderment is gone.<br />
<br /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
It led to this strange situation where I was trying to convince colleagues of what seemed an obvious truth and utterly failing. In retrospect I think, like <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/18/politics/sean-spicer-regret/index.html" style="text-align: center;" target="_blank">Shawn Spicer's</a><span style="text-align: center;"> claim on the inauguration crowd, the greater truth was that if paying people not to use electricity was truly daft the personal consequences would be negative. It's better to prefer <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_facts" target="_blank">alternative facts</a>. The other possibility is I was wrong and there is no fatal flaw. I've thought hard in the intervening thirteen years and I've not been able to devise nor have I heard a good counterargument. If there is no fatal flaw it would be painfully cathartic for me to learn the truth. </span><br />
<br />
<h2>
The Fatal Flaw </h2>
<br />
If you don't accept the fatal flaw as truth then everything in this series is waffle or perhaps there are multiple truths in accordance with <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Factual_relativism" target="_blank">epistemic relativism</a>.<br />
<br />
Everything hangs on this:-<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Contention: The amount of electricity that would have been consumed in the absence of payment not to consume it is unknowable.</li>
<li>Corollary 1: The volume of electricity that would have been consumed if people hadn't been paid not to consume it can only be guessed/estimated. </li>
<li>Corollary 2: In any peak some consumers will consume less than estimated for reasons unrelated to being paid.</li>
<li>Corollary 3: If you pay by volume for something that can't be measured people will sell you a lot of it.</li>
<li>Corollary 4: A consumer not paying market price should consume as high a proportion as possible of their total energy at peak times so as to maximise the amount they will receive when responding to a request to switch off.</li>
<li>Corollary 5: A consumer that can increase market price by not consuming should consume as high a proportion as possible at peak times while ever the increase in consumption cost is exceeded by payments for switching off. </li>
</ul>
<br />
It is as simple as that but a lot flows from it. The whole purpose of demand management is to reduce consumption when electricity is expensive or more often shift consumption from times of high demand to times of low demand. However, the incentive scheme incentivises exactly the opposite until a payment is offered. As well, some would have switched off anyway, perhaps they were out that day.<br />
<br />
So paying people not to use electricity means accepting their claims of how much they should be paid or at best guessing while incentivising behaviour that makes the problem you are trying to solve worse. All this when incentives could be aligned with desired behaviour by selling electricity at cost plus a retail margin.<br />
<br />Kenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2473504615610883562.post-63736462793915406422017-10-15T09:34:00.001+11:002017-10-27T17:23:12.981+11:00Paying People Not To Use Electricity - A Beautiful Scam<a href="http://www.news.com.au/finance/money/budgeting/households-will-be-paid-to-reduce-power-consumption-during-peak-periods/news-story/5ce9fc72bdf789569d8069fdbdf45e39">Paying people</a> not to use electricity is not on the scale of the <a href="https://op-talk.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/10/17/who-was-right-about-w-m-d-s-in-iraq/">WMD claim</a> that justified invading Iraq but more exciting for me because I was there when the idea was born, just after that war. It started small and I expected it to die young but it has grown in stature to the point that it gets a mention by Sarah Hanson-Young on <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/txt/s4715577.htm">QandA</a>, praise <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/891-Next-Generation.pdf">everywhere you look</a> and there is now a <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Media_Centre/2017/Media-release---AEMO-ARENA-demand-response-announcement.pdf" target="_blank">demand response trial</a>. The <a href="https://arena.gov.au/blog/the-power-of-a-simple-idea-what-is-demand-response/" target="_blank">basic idea</a> is to sell electricity below cost and then pay people not to buy it. Now that it's public policy, there's an option for the man in the street to climb on the bandwagon and win some pocket money extracted from the pockets of those that ignore the opportunity. Those that take advantage will be paid to help the wider community understand the <a href="http://blog.urremote.com/2017/10/paying-people-not-to-use-electricity_26.html" target="_blank">fatal flaw</a>, but anyone interested should do so fast as surely this one can't last long.<br />
<br />
We are a nation blessed with an abundance of sun, wind, coal and gas and back in 2004 this was reflected in Australia having close to the worlds cheapest electricity. That was when a CSIRO team started work on the idea of paying people not to consume electricity. I was part of that team and for a short while shared in the excitement. Nobody is penalised or coerced into contributing to reductions in peak electricity demand but those that make the effort benefit. People can generate value by not doing something and get paid. What could be better than that? After a light bulb moment though, I could never view the idea this way again, it was so obviously daft. I pointed out the <a href="http://blog.urremote.com/2017/10/paying-people-not-to-use-electricity_26.html" target="_blank">fatal flaw</a> to colleagues and suggested we should try other approaches to demand side response. Other approaches though were boring, incrementalist and difficult to make cost effective at the low power prices of the time. Back then, I'd never have predicted that weaknesses in electricity industry oversight would be exploited so successfully that Australia now has close to the worlds most expensive electricity.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJoUiloDJlJdVKAPiMZsM6zd5YJ0DN4rhUdhECTfDAkLI0JcmdLoTWrr78DNjbnPR_v-UGHCJGl2AVsKtJfQF3eqpRsQDGq1iJxc9wL9K7O9qDAp6A2BwwxM3Ps7-jg6d0w3z3ru0GnrU/s1600/Figure+2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="556" data-original-width="715" height="310" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJoUiloDJlJdVKAPiMZsM6zd5YJ0DN4rhUdhECTfDAkLI0JcmdLoTWrr78DNjbnPR_v-UGHCJGl2AVsKtJfQF3eqpRsQDGq1iJxc9wL9K7O9qDAp6A2BwwxM3Ps7-jg6d0w3z3ru0GnrU/s400/Figure+2.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Growth in electricity prices over 10 years. Source: Rod Sims - <span style="font-size: 12.8px;"><a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/speech/shining-a-light-australia%E2%80%99s-gas-and-electricity-affordability-problem" target="_blank">National Press Club Speech</a></span><span style="font-size: 12.8px;">, 20 September 2017. For a more complete analysis see a <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-are-australians-paying-twice-as-much-for-electricity-as-americans-69980" target="_blank">comparison of Australian and US electricity prices</a> over time.</span></td><td class="tr-caption"><br /></td><td class="tr-caption"></td><td class="tr-caption"></td><td class="tr-caption"></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
My colleagues were more prescient, the fashion for developing novel methods of extracting funds from electricity consumers was at its dawn. Electricity had been a boring industry for many years until that time. My insights got some support from my boss, who'd also been drafted into the project, but outright hostility from those in charge. They wouldn't confront the fundamental problem, and eventually I was no longer allocated to the project. I couldn't understand the hostility, I thought I was helping the team by suggesting we adjust our goals to avoid inevitable failure. In retrospect I've come to the view my colleagues were far wiser, they were pursuing a more useful truth.<br />
<br />
A truth can be harnessed to achieve useful outcomes. A truth doesn't have to be absolute, true in particular circumstances is sufficient, even if that truth becomes untrue outside the relevant domain. We may scoff today, but Ptolemy's <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geocentric_model">geocentric model</a> for planetary motion was used to prepare astrological and astronomical charts for over 1500 years. No one scoffs at <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newton%27s_law_of_universal_gravitation">Newtons law of universal gravitation</a>. It is a useful truth with continuing practical application but in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newton%27s_law_of_universal_gravitation#Einstein.27s_solution">Einstein's general relativity</a>, gravitational force is a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fictitious_force">fictitious force</a> arising from the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fictitious_force">curvature of spacetime</a>. The most favourable outcome a research team can hope for in CSIRO is to be well funded and that requires exciting novel ideas. Boring incrementalist approaches will not be funded, researchers must promise something grander than anyone else. This is a fundamental truth, but everyone's proposals are grand so it's also impossibly hard. When there are many excellent weavers how does a weaver win the contract to supply clothes for the emperor. He must promise something others can not, the finest, best suit of clothes from a fabric invisible to anyone who is either unfit for his position or hopelessly stupid should do it. As a child I hated <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Emperor%27s_New_Clothes">this story</a> because I thought it ridiculous. I couldn't understand the desirability of keeping up the pretense. As I age, I find the truth it reveals to be profound. In the circumstances of the courtiers it truly was a beautiful suit, the quality of which contributed to their good standing with the emperor and continued well being. There can be no greater success in CSIRO than a world leading project that has managed to grow for thirteen years and become a major public policy initiative. It is a truly excellent project.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRNL3ltlpbw-gTERabWBSMKnwULvDjPQZsl-nejhZF6cxeFw4hPY6cteNV4B1X5VtSw5Z5OOvbwIOOueVUQ4prSvJlA4_7UZ1oMckhXAVNAbtbU6J1CpWF7Cwb-fcj6L8iz8akqLAOsqY/s1600/weaving+friends.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="424" data-original-width="640" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRNL3ltlpbw-gTERabWBSMKnwULvDjPQZsl-nejhZF6cxeFw4hPY6cteNV4B1X5VtSw5Z5OOvbwIOOueVUQ4prSvJlA4_7UZ1oMckhXAVNAbtbU6J1CpWF7Cwb-fcj6L8iz8akqLAOsqY/s320/weaving+friends.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12.8px;">An emperors love of </span><a href="http://avalanchelooms.blogspot.com.au/2011/11/hand-weaving.html" target="_blank">beautiful weaving</a> provides for a <a href="http://www.andersen.sdu.dk/vaerk/hersholt/TheEmperorsNewClothes_e.html" style="font-size: 12.8px;" target="_blank">great yarn</a><span style="font-size: 12.8px;"> which is often interpreted in </span><a href="https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/194905696?book_show_action=true" style="font-size: 12.8px;" target="_blank">different ways</a><span style="font-size: 12.8px;">. A short and seemingly simple tale that's really quite deep.</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
The emperor looked a bit of a dill after the boy revealed a greater truth but he carried on with the parade. The weavers kept their fee and the emperor kept his throne, so no harm was done. Similarly when <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Blix" target="_blank">Hans Blix</a> was urging caution, the best insider response was to ignore the doubts and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2004/mar/20/biography.iraq">discredit him</a>. Those urging war would get to enjoy the spoils, so the existence of WMD was a useful truth even if it would eventually be mocked, much like the fate that befell Ptolemy's <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geocentric_model">geocentric model</a>. To maximise income from reducing electricity consumption in times of peak demand consumers must first shift as much of their consumption as possible to times of peak demand. This is the opposite of the purported aim. Paying people not to consume electricity will eventually lose favour but the emperor will carry on and the CSIRO heroes will keep their honors and promotions. Australians will pay a bit more for electricity but in truth, that doesn't really matter much.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Kenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2473504615610883562.post-15302485068715426502017-09-17T13:29:00.000+10:002017-10-05T11:57:27.332+11:00Electric Unicycle Batteries And The Design Flaw That Makes Wheels Dangerous<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1Ej2S1l29GCl6VvBI4cWr5aknArHOqTkuDGtq79lE48CIxw1zr0EyQx50cSU-j7UtK-kkma7siqoWZdfxzvHBFkjTJNhl6y5V-fH-PV6cptZlAZ04YOzSk22sBOvzATuPEFQSP7wSrOA/s1600/46598502-2-zoom.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="535" data-original-width="1200" height="142" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1Ej2S1l29GCl6VvBI4cWr5aknArHOqTkuDGtq79lE48CIxw1zr0EyQx50cSU-j7UtK-kkma7siqoWZdfxzvHBFkjTJNhl6y5V-fH-PV6cptZlAZ04YOzSk22sBOvzATuPEFQSP7wSrOA/s320/46598502-2-zoom.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 1 - An Airwheel X8 in action</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<h2>
</h2>
<h2>
Summary</h2>
Electric unicycles are mostly safe but an instantaneous loss of power results in rider injury. Most wheels have a design flaw that causes this dangerous situation to occur as they age. A rider is likely to experience a rare and mysterious shut down on a wheel that was for a long time safe.<br />
<br />
This study explains the problem and details investigations into two particular models, an unbranded el cheapo and an Airwheel X8. Both these wheels were flawed with the el cheapo failing quickly. It is possible to avoid shutdowns with the X8 by replacing the battery before it gets old and modifying the electronics can completely avoid low voltage shutdowns.<br />
<br />
An interesting observation arising from the study was that adding a second battery in parallel should increase range by a factor of about three.<br />
<br />
<h2>
Introduction</h2>
Wheels at low speed are generally pretty safe as you can easily step off. The foot platform striking an obstacle is difficult because the riders body continues forward without the wheel underneath. Some quick foot work is required to get the rider's feet back under their centre of gravity but as they can push off the wheel platform it usually ends well. Motor shutdown on the other hand is dangerous and I'm <a href="https://wheelive.com/blog/brands-with-without-unexpected-shutdowns-new-buyers-look-here/" target="_blank">not the first</a> to observe this. I've experienced it four times and it always hurts.<br />
<br />
<h2>
Why Is Motor Shutdown Catastrophic?</h2>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiMZHq1GwwUDg8KXuf94sQXN_HKTETLu23Ey0NjD-QQapyF0XS1zn4GAhe4AWFCPRDoGrtOlSln5bi2nhOyBOaNbICJzbCvxnCOgjvDMHcKREl0V_kwJQoaHhDAsVpwzIaCwxR_kztlxA/s1600/giphy.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="181" data-original-width="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiMZHq1GwwUDg8KXuf94sQXN_HKTETLu23Ey0NjD-QQapyF0XS1zn4GAhe4AWFCPRDoGrtOlSln5bi2nhOyBOaNbICJzbCvxnCOgjvDMHcKREl0V_kwJQoaHhDAsVpwzIaCwxR_kztlxA/s1600/giphy.gif" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 2 -A shutdown looks similar to this</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
When the motor is driving forward, the riders weight must be forward of the wheel centre so that the torque produced by the rider matches the torque produced from the horizontal ground reaction as shown in Figure 3 .<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhes579e6kEGD5eThcxxyIW7Jk5Fv0-DjJ_9MWN9I1TajRPhEVXfmg7KMFkC_FhSjrHMYZIRfbfqnJ-RFb2zP7HbmnidLr0px2XpkIGNLwGN3RKXkrk60dQf_oN6wnPVItEcFpowPhhl1U/s1600/WheelForceDiagramStable.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="320" data-original-width="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhes579e6kEGD5eThcxxyIW7Jk5Fv0-DjJ_9MWN9I1TajRPhEVXfmg7KMFkC_FhSjrHMYZIRfbfqnJ-RFb2zP7HbmnidLr0px2XpkIGNLwGN3RKXkrk60dQf_oN6wnPVItEcFpowPhhl1U/s1600/WheelForceDiagramStable.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 3 - Stable forward motion</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
If that ground reaction is lost the rider will be hanging in space without a force to oppose gravity and will therefore descend face first as shown in figure 4.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3QtkqbWAZc93cJA3rYfCutRfzMwf9UNWbMeha-3_0HAHCBrVDuqFhnml1ziFpoNYiK0SRQUO22aSVczXudXdjqKg2aQU9yinrZHPEbLN9hRpBxeM9bPxBUWJJ0lY7URcyx-UQA1PNfg0/s1600/WheelForceDiagramCrashV2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="300" data-original-width="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3QtkqbWAZc93cJA3rYfCutRfzMwf9UNWbMeha-3_0HAHCBrVDuqFhnml1ziFpoNYiK0SRQUO22aSVczXudXdjqKg2aQU9yinrZHPEbLN9hRpBxeM9bPxBUWJJ0lY7URcyx-UQA1PNfg0/s1600/WheelForceDiagramCrashV2.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 4 - What happens when the motor stops.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
It is worse than tripping over while walking as the rider can not push against anything to try and recover or reduce their rate of descent. No horizontal reaction force is possible. An exclusively vertical force through the feet, which is all that is possible, serves only to increase the riders rate of rotation about a centre of gravity which moves further forward of their feet as they approach the ground. Only hands can be used to break the fall. Hands, knees and sometimes the face will hit hard and suffer injury. The only chance is to pull the knees toward the chest faster than the rider is falling and throw the feet forward. I know its been done but I've never pulled it off. I find I'm already on the ground before I've realised what was occurring.<br />
<br />
In <a href="https://youtu.be/5_IyBkQqA3M?t=2m25s" target="_blank">this video</a> a rider dismounts gracefully from an unpowered wheel by pulling one knee upwards as he is falling, planting his foot in front of his body and relying on forward momentum to lift his centre of mass above his foot. He is undoubtedly a talented rider but his starting point is one of balance rather than hanging in space and he doesn't have to realise during the fall that he needs to do the opposite of what he would normally do when tipping forward, as is required on a powered wheel.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV6G4pQgqu8p5f-CyA4_gFapaNfrFhGyQqljhe5IA2nQt42TjvqNlFBvKgoCb_Vxt2xC2J8vAJKenSlbVOo1toJRCWwT3R3z7PXOhchsflNt9Npyvhk_lo9q0BT5Oj8bMouH1bI_cknUA/s1600/IMG_20170313_141436.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="654" data-original-width="490" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV6G4pQgqu8p5f-CyA4_gFapaNfrFhGyQqljhe5IA2nQt42TjvqNlFBvKgoCb_Vxt2xC2J8vAJKenSlbVOo1toJRCWwT3R3z7PXOhchsflNt9Npyvhk_lo9q0BT5Oj8bMouH1bI_cknUA/s320/IMG_20170313_141436.jpg" width="239" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 5 - This minor scrape was from catching the foot plate and stumbling on the dismount. The shutdown injuries were much worse.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
<h2>
My Four Shutdowns</h2>
The first was on a wheel only two weeks old that had a cell in the battery pack fail suddenly, dropping the cell voltage below the shutdown voltage. If you buy the cheapest wheel possible, it will almost certainly have low quality batteries as they are a large proportion of the sellers total expense making battery skimping the easiest way to achieve low prices. This is what led to the hover board failures that made <a href="http://bgr.com/2016/01/14/hoverboard-catches-fire-unboxing-video/" target="_blank">the news</a> a while back.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidL61bCoJP-RGjeZqy2hiy1y6Su9-gDILiL9xDQu9-fBOtEMzy_PQTMoaiNk18AOYtr4AnkqLCYpinj6l1v-5DQRoinQibbNWi-7mQ119xpjuxnqThjVUNTxkSMX9yRoiwkkHCt-XHJyA/s1600/hoverboard-fire-unboxing-video.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="782" height="204" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidL61bCoJP-RGjeZqy2hiy1y6Su9-gDILiL9xDQu9-fBOtEMzy_PQTMoaiNk18AOYtr4AnkqLCYpinj6l1v-5DQRoinQibbNWi-7mQ119xpjuxnqThjVUNTxkSMX9yRoiwkkHCt-XHJyA/s320/hoverboard-fire-unboxing-video.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 6 - Low quality batteries can fail without warning and even catch fire. </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Stupidly, I replaced the failed cell with a cell that had protection which tripped out in use and that was the second shutdown. The wheel seller sent me another battery but took the el cheapo wheel back before the battery arrived. Next I went up market with an Airwheel X8 and had 18 months of trouble free wheeling. Oh what joy! I sensed the battery was aging, removed it to test and fitted the generic pack I'd been sent previously. First time I rode with the new battery it lasted well but the ride ended with a shutdown. I put back the aging battery which had tested as worn and had another shutdown early in the ride. This exacerbated the injuries from shutdown three that hadn't yet had time to heal. Shutdowns three and four were a mystery so some investigation was required.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<h2>
How Are Wheel Batteries Managed?</h2>
The batteries are built from lithium 18650 cells connected in series and packaged with a battery management system (BMS) like that shown in figure 7 and <a href="https://www.aliexpress.com/item/16S-15A-lipo-lithium-Polymer-BMS-PCM-PCB-battery-protection-board-for-unicycle-16-Packs-18650/32809978801.html" target="_blank">listed on Aliexpress</a> with the specifications in the appendix.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmuIx6BkAC78XgKPwVMy5NPkt3hDMPboT0Er2qqKQWk9CtjLgw0LAwcg13UpqyV-SrM35VVzRQzTbmdoAKrtl37HEwapUzBgbZERQyHYxGMdRGMf4ORCSD_STyxAtHby5xL3nX1gklUW0/s1600/HTB1gIJRPpXXXXb4apXXq6xXFXXXv.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="867" data-original-width="1000" height="277" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmuIx6BkAC78XgKPwVMy5NPkt3hDMPboT0Er2qqKQWk9CtjLgw0LAwcg13UpqyV-SrM35VVzRQzTbmdoAKrtl37HEwapUzBgbZERQyHYxGMdRGMf4ORCSD_STyxAtHby5xL3nX1gklUW0/s320/HTB1gIJRPpXXXXb4apXXq6xXFXXXv.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 7 - A Battery Management System (BMS) for a wheel is packaged together with the 18650 cells. Note the 4 FET switches in the top left. Three of these are used to switch off power to the wheel when over current or under voltage is detected and the fourth switches off the charging current when the cells are fully charged.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
The BMS manages cell balancing, charging and supplies power to the wheel through switches (FETs) that are switched off in the case of over current or under voltage.<br />
<br />
On an X8 wheel there are four battery indicator lights. The number lit reduce as the battery discharges until, at the minimum acceptable voltage the wheel beeps a lot, flashes all four lights and goes into <a href="https://personalelectrictransport.co.uk/electric-unicycle-terminology/" target="_blank">tilt back</a> making it hard to ride.<br />
<br />
The battery charger is not smart. It supplies a constant voltage up to its maximum current and shows a red light to indicate charging. The light turns green when the current falls low enough to indicate a full charge. The actual charging current is controlled by the BMS, not the charger. I hadn't realised this at first and, when the wheel was disassembled, ended up damaging the original X8 battery and the generic wheel replacement battery by charging through the discharge cable. This bypassed the BMS charge control and caused overcharging.<br />
<br />
<h2>
What Went Wrong?</h2>
<div>
It is under voltage that caused all my shutdowns and most other people's as well. The primary problem is a design flaw. Sure, we want to protect batteries from under voltage that will wreck them but it shouldn't be by injuring a rider. This flaw lurks always but will not be triggered by most usage scenarios. Normally the wheel goes into tilt back and the rider dismounts before low voltage shutdown occurs, however under certain circumstances shutdown will occur without tilt back. How this can happen is investigated in the following testing.<br />
<br /></div>
<h2>
Method</h2>
<div>
The batteries were discharged at a low 0.2 amps rate and the voltage periodically measured. This data was overlaid on published test data for the <a href="http://www.candlepowerforums.com/vb/showthread.php?376719-Test-Review-of-Orbtronic-18650PD-2900mAh-(Black)" target="_blank">Panasonic NCR18650PF</a> cells, these being the type fitted to the Airwheel X8. The voltage at which each battery indicator light changed state was measured and the voltage at tilt back and shutdown was measured.<br />
<br /></div>
<h2>
Results</h2>
<div>
Figure 8 shows battery discharge data for the X8 battery before overcharging, after over charging and for the generic battery after overcharging. It also shows the per cell voltages for shutdown etc.</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiAZ3UitF6crSyB4kX6HrefU8qf3jIIybTTwmaHNkwUfBdm9Q5jDSeqoxes5UkDcv3Tap-r4NKjp-8qFrV8DVOTao861r6QL7-hADIb_oUtb5DySUPyrzYhjm29-LC6vGYhyphenhyphenYbQ1VbvdI/s1600/Wheel+Battery+Testing.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="800" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiAZ3UitF6crSyB4kX6HrefU8qf3jIIybTTwmaHNkwUfBdm9Q5jDSeqoxes5UkDcv3Tap-r4NKjp-8qFrV8DVOTao861r6QL7-hADIb_oUtb5DySUPyrzYhjm29-LC6vGYhyphenhyphenYbQ1VbvdI/s320/Wheel+Battery+Testing.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 8 - Published test data overlaid with testing data of an aging cell X (black), aging cell after overcharging X (grey) and generic cell after overcharging X (blue). The discharge rate for the X tests was 0.2 amps.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The aged X8 battery is shown to be, as suspected, of significantly reduced capacity and was made worse by a single overcharge. The generic battery after one overcharge is shown to be of much lower capacity than the X8 battery after over charging. The shutdown voltage of the generic BMS was 3.56 volts which was higher than the tilt back voltage of 3.39 volts per cell.<br />
<br /></div>
<h2>
Discussion</h2>
When the generic battery was fitted, the long first ride suggests the unbranded cells were quite reasonable. However that first ride was, from the outset, doomed to end in pain as the shutdown voltage was above the tilt back voltage. There would never be a warning before shutdown three. The generic pack had a shutdown voltage of 3.56 volts, the X8 pack was 3.22 volts and the AliExpress BMS advertises 2.1 volts which shows BMS specifications vary, so that even a pack of the correct voltage can't be safely fitted on any wheel. They must be matched. Also, the generic cells were ruined by a single overcharge.<br />
<br />
Shutdown four is more problematical because the implication is that all X8s and probably most other wheels will become dangerous as the battery ages. The immediate cause of shutdown four is the damage sustained by overcharging, leading, under heavy load, to an instantaneous voltage drop from above tilt back voltage to below shutdown voltage. While this battery was prematurely aged by overcharging, all batteries will eventually suffer similar deterioration and battery capacity is also reduced when cold e.g in winter. In use this deterioration will happen slowly so shutdowns will be rare, occurring at first when climbing a bump late in a ride on a cold day, as the battery approaches tilt back voltage and becoming more common as the battery ages further. A rider is only likely to be aware of a rare and mysterious catastrophic failure on a wheel that was for a long time safe. All wheels with this design will eventually become dangerous.<br />
<br />
<h2>
Increasing Wheel Range</h2>
Another observation from Figure 8 is how little of the available battery capacity is actually used in the X8. At a likely occasional peak of 7 amps draw the wheel goes into tilt back at 1.25 AH which is less than half of the total energy available. Adding a second battery in parallel would reduce the current draw by half and avoid tilt back until about 1.8 AH. So changing out a battery when flat would double the range, but running a second battery in parallel will increase range by nearly a factor of three. With a single battery, I've always found range insufficient but two batteries in parallel would equate to about three hours riding time, by which time the rider is likely to be fatigued anyway.<br />
<br />
<h2>
Why Are Wheel Designs Flawed?</h2>
A BMS is used in most lithium battery installations for battery protection and the same logic is ideal for nearly all scenarios, excepting wheels. A battery control chip is required for every cell and the chips to do it are abundant. Ideally a wheel wouldn't do low voltage shutdown but that is what the available chips do. I guess wheel manufacturers have just gone with a standard BMS design. What they haven't done, in the X8 at least, is try and work around this limitation in the wheel control logic and they should have.<br />
<br />
<h2>
What Can Manufacturers Do?</h2>
The goal is to try to always get tilt back before shutdown and shut down slowly enough for a rider to react and step off. If there is to be a shutdown voltage, setting it lower, at the minimum cell voltage would help as it makes tilt back more likely to occur before shutdown. This would be 2.5 volts for the <a href="http://www.candlepowerforums.com/vb/showthread.php?376719-Test-Review-of-Orbtronic-18650PD-2900mAh-(Black)" target="_blank">Panasonic NCR18650PF</a> cells in the X8 rather than the current 3.2 volts. The 2.1 volt cutoff in the AliExpress controller meets this requirement but if 2.1 volts ever occurred in use it would damage the cells. What they really should do is, not allow battery cells to reach minimum cell voltage during riding without shutting down.<br />
<br />
Avoiding minimum cell voltage can be done by reducing current sufficiently to maintain another voltage level below the tilt back voltage. For the X8 controller with the shutdown voltage already reduced to 2.5 volts, perhaps 2.9 volts would make a good minimum. This only has to occur for a second or two as tilt back will already have been triggered. What the rider will experience is a reduction in torque, probably when it is most needed climbing an obstacle, followed by tilt back. This is far better than shutting down. The wheel will go from rigid to spongy but loss of power will be gradual enough for the rider to react and they will still be able to push horizontally against the wheel, making it possible to dismount.<br />
<br />
<h2>
What Can A Rider Do?</h2>
A careful rider can stay in the safe zone. Use quality cells and test a new pack before fitting as there are a lot of dodgy lithium batteries for sale. Store the wheel inside in winter and don't stop for too long in freezing conditions.Then monitor the cells as they degrade and replace them early. Replacing a battery prematurely is wasteful but better than suffering a shutdown. Alternatively a rider could modify the BMS to bypass the FET switches so that the battery remains connected when the FETs switch off or connect the gate to the drain on the FET switches so that they can't switch off. This will eliminate shutdowns but also over current and <a href="https://hackaday.com/2017/09/18/the-science-behind-lithium-cell-characteristics-and-safety/" target="_blank">under voltage</a> protection for the batteries.<br />
<br />
For the X8 wheel the battery capacity lights can be used to measure battery aging. From figure 8 it can be seen that, when new, the 4-3 indicator light transition occurs at 0.5 AH of discharge and the 3-2 transition occurs at 1.1 AH of discharge so there should be about the same ride time between<br />
the two transitions. As the battery ages the 4-3 transition happens earlier but the next 3-2 transition remains about the same amount of time after the previous. This is what I'd observed in practice, 4-3 battery indicator transition was happening earlier in a ride as the battery aged and on the overcharged battery the 4-3 transition occurred immediately on commencing riding. Using data from the graph and the knowledge that I hadn't yet had a shutdown with the aging battery, it looks like a ratio of up to five in ride time between the 4-3 and 3-2 transitions is safe. At some point beyond that it becomes dangerous.<br />
<br />
<h2>
Buying Replacement Batteries Is Difficult</h2>
<div>
Replacement batteries are hard to locate so most people probably don't replace them. That would suggest there are a lot of old wheels around with dangerously aged batteries that will hurt their riders.<br />
<br />
I've found only one <a href="https://www.aliexpress.com/item/Electric-unicycle-lithium-battery-pack-60-v-electric-balance-car-battery-Dedicated-power-supply-import-batteries/32752349984.html" target="_blank">supplier on Aliexpress</a>. They don't specify which cells you will get which is annoying but at least they offer a low shutdown voltage of 2.75 volts per cell which improves on the 3.21 volts of the original Airwheel X8.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9zIQMu1xSFnj7cuLfTEcEpnv0LfUaDNH_l7qHa7h3tKuQGudrjOLW45jgxuu8yKhMxOWXYhaMNlrPFtClAO_4WOCJws22iginWFhSH5EhUHVUpEJ5bQFpBzMAvmXZY0CnEFZr03t6tGI/s1600/IMG_20170312_152333.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9zIQMu1xSFnj7cuLfTEcEpnv0LfUaDNH_l7qHa7h3tKuQGudrjOLW45jgxuu8yKhMxOWXYhaMNlrPFtClAO_4WOCJws22iginWFhSH5EhUHVUpEJ5bQFpBzMAvmXZY0CnEFZr03t6tGI/s320/IMG_20170312_152333.jpg" width="240" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 9 - Wheels can traverse fairly rough terrain</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br /></div>
<h2>
Appendix</h2>
<div>
Specifications of a wheel battery management system (BMS) listed on <a href="https://www.aliexpress.com/item/16S-15A-lipo-lithium-Polymer-BMS-PCM-PCB-battery-protection-board-for-unicycle-16-Packs-18650/32809978801.html" target="_blank">Aliexpress</a>.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUJUDhZIQkxkjLN7LHtTIpXYUYcDEErSMUtaLxkI53GSRTyxQplWJnEjTzMy39htC7BQsLiHbAfEP8L0jdZ-7FgmUesa59zJxXt5WWAzksRvR3Ju0dGmtHdgznLomaj6QpNmiuFAY0_MY/s1600/HTB1re.0RpXXXXXJXFXXq6xXFXXXx.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="722" data-original-width="718" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUJUDhZIQkxkjLN7LHtTIpXYUYcDEErSMUtaLxkI53GSRTyxQplWJnEjTzMy39htC7BQsLiHbAfEP8L0jdZ-7FgmUesa59zJxXt5WWAzksRvR3Ju0dGmtHdgznLomaj6QpNmiuFAY0_MY/s320/HTB1re.0RpXXXXXJXFXXq6xXFXXXx.jpg" width="318" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/5_IyBkQqA3M/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/5_IyBkQqA3M?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<br />Kenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2473504615610883562.post-89485994785811661722016-01-16T23:23:00.000+11:002017-09-17T19:02:39.628+10:00How Hot Is The Lounge?<span style="background-color: white; color: #181818; font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large; line-height: 18px;"><i>“When you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meager and unsatisfactory kind” </i></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><i><span style="background-color: white; color: #181818; font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">― </span><a href="https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/William_Thomson" style="background-color: white; color: #666600; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none;">Lord Kelvin</a></i></span><br />
<br />
Approaching Christmas it was hot, enough to keep checking the lounge room temperature obsessively. To keep the house cool without air conditioning the windows are opened at night then closed during the heat. Recently it was an extreme 37<span style="background-color: white; color: #545454; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small; line-height: 18.2px;">° </span>outside while inside was a more livable 27<span style="background-color: white; color: #545454; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small; line-height: 18.2px;">°</span>.
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/41fPoeVDkeL._SX425_.jpg" height="200" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="200" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">These digital thermometers are great but they only tell you the temperature right now.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
A couple of digital thermometers at less than <a href="http://www.ebay.com.au/sch/i.html?_sacat=0&_sop=15&_nkw=lcd+digital+thermometer+temperature&_frs=1" target="_blank">A$2 per piece</a> are used to know when it's hotter out than in and then I have to to keep observing so as to close or open the windows appropriately.<br />
<br />
Obsession though, requires better than spot observations. How cool does it stay inside compared to out, how often is it uncomfortably hot, how cool does it need to be at night to cool the house sufficiently and so on? The house has a lot of thermal mass so how much less effective is this technique when there is successive hot days? Answering these questions requires more data. No problem, I'll get a sensor that records observations and to make analysis easy it should publish the data online.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img alt="Wireless Temperature Logger - Front" src="http://wirelesstemperaturelogger.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/wtl-front2-300x300.jpg" height="200" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="200" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">This sensor from <a href="http://wirelesstemperaturelogger.com.au/" target="_blank">Wireless Loggers</a> looks good and runs on a coin battery but is a hefty A$ 77 per unit.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img alt="Ethernet Tag Manager - Front View" src="http://wirelesstemperaturelogger.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/tm-front1-300x300.jpg" height="200" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="200" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">These sensors also need a wireless ethernet base station which adds complexity and another A$164 in expense.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The closest consumer product I could find was from <a href="http://wirelesstemperaturelogger.com.au/" target="_blank">Wireless Loggers</a> . This was a more expensive solution than I'd anticipated and the data was online but only accessible through a phone app. Sometimes things don't advance as fast as you'd expect. I was putting sensors inside <a href="http://www.academia.edu/781755/Cattle_health_monitoring_using_wireless_sensor_networks" target="_blank">cow's stomachs</a> back in <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/pub?list=BRO&pid=procite:b29edc7a-8f13-430e-9d40-c4bc4d7113aa" target="_blank">2004</a> and watching temperatures remotely as they walked around eating and drinking using similar bespoke technology. Back then we were expecting this would be point and click easy and cost only a few dollars once sensor networks were commercialised, yet 12 years later it still looks difficult.<br />
<br />
A pencil and paper was looking attractive but I'd also bought a convenient to use NodeMCU version of the esp8266 12-E microcontroller with integrated WiFi as I was reading about them everywhere as being <a href="https://dzone.com/articles/its-time-develop-applications" target="_blank">functional</a> and cheap, <a href="http://www.aliexpress.com/item/New-Wireless-module-NodeMcu-Lua-WIFI-Internet-of-Things-development-board-based-ESP8266-with-pcb-Antenna/32266017059.html" target="_blank">this one</a> from Ali Express at just US$4.15 delivered.
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://img.banggood.com/images/2014/xiemeijuan/06/SKU237303/sku237303-(6).jpg" height="200" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="200" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The esp8266 12-E modules are tiny, cheap, lots of I/O and reasonably powerful.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img src="http://g02.a.alicdn.com/kf/HTB14ysnHFXXXXXVapXXq6xXFXXXD/NodeMCU-v2-Lua-based-ESP8266-development-kit-wifi.jpg" height="133" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="200" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Development is a lot more convenient when the esp8266 12-E is deployed in this NodeMCU format. It can be <span style="font-size: 12.8px;">programmed directly from a USB port on a PC, powered from a USB charger during use and</span><span style="font-size: 12.8px;"> provides easy access to all I/O pins when </span><span style="font-size: 12.8px;">plugged into a </span><span style="font-size: 12.8px;">prototyping </span><span style="font-size: 12.8px;">breadboard</span><span style="font-size: 12.8px;">. </span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Could I use this newfangled esp8266 to satisfy my curiosity? <br />
<br />
After Christmas I got to spend a few days with Chris, a smart guy I've known since high school. He is living the dream, with the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawkesbury_River" target="_blank">Hawkesbury River</a> 3 metres from the door. It would be hard to get bored with that, but just in case he has a spare house at <a href="http://www.stayz.com.au/accommodation/nsw/central-coast/chittaway-point/57342" target="_blank">Chittaway Point</a>, again with a wharf in the back yard. Between the crabbing, bush walking and watching boats pass from the balcony we had a go at learning how to use the esp8266.<br />
<br />
The esp8266 first became available as an AT command driven serial modem but now several <a href="http://robinsonia.com/wp/?p=428" target="_blank">alternative development environments</a> are available of which <a href="http://nodemcu.com/index_en.html" target="_blank">LUA</a> seems the most popular. We opted for <a href="https://www.arduino.cc/" target="_blank">Arduino</a> which needs to be configured to program the esp8266 and the easiest way to get started is to follow the "<a href="https://github.com/esp8266/Arduino#installing-with-boards-manager" target="_blank">Installing with Boards Manager</a>" instructions. With Arduino, the standard method of testing if everything is set up correctly is to compile and upload the code to blink a led on the target device. We found an <a href="https://github.com/iot-playground/Arduino/blob/master/ESP8266ArduinoIDE/Blink/Blink.ino" target="_blank">esp8266 version of blink</a> and in a few minutes were watching a blinking led. Trivial perhaps, but satisfying. A lot later there was simulated data periodically being uploaded to an online service.<br />
<br />
We'd made more progress than I expected and I hadn't sourced a temperature sensor, so that had to wait until I returned home. A <a href="https://tushev.org/articles/arduino/10" target="_blank">DS18B20 temperature sensor</a> looks ideal at <a href="http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/DS18B20-DIGITAL-TEMPERATURE-SENSOR-1-Wire-Thermometer-Arduino-AVR-PIC-Triode-/171258953026" target="_blank">5 units for A$3.88</a> and they are also available with a metre long waterproof cable <a href="http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/DS18B20-Temperature-Temp-Sensor-Thermal-Probe-Thermometer-Waterproof-For-Arduino-/400805445386?hash=item5d51ddbf0a:g:40EAAOSweW5VG4tm" target="_blank">for A$2.22</a>. The DS18B20 reads temperature resolved to <a href="https://labjack.com/support/faq/what-does-12-or-16-bit-resolution-mean" target="_blank">9 bits by default</a> and is configurable to 12 bits with an absolute accuracy of +/- 0.5 degrees. It needs only power, earth and a connection to a single <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General-purpose_input/output" target="_blank">GPIO</a> pin. Multiple sensors can also be connected to the same pin. The DS18B20 documentation says a 4.7K ohm pull up resistor is required between the power and data pins and other implementations <a href="http://iot-playground.com/2-uncategorised/41-esp8266-ds18b20-temperature-sensor-arduino-ide" target="_blank">specify this also</a> but the internal pull up in the ESP8266 12-E which is reported to <a href="http://bbs.espressif.com/viewtopic.php?t=1079" target="_blank">range between 30K - 100K</a> ohms has proved sufficient for me with two sensors connected physically close to the esp8266 12-E module. Later I came across a pedant aiming to <a href="https://wp.josh.com/2014/06/23/no-external-pull-up-needed-for-ds18b20-temp-sensor/" target="_blank">Save The Earth One Resistor At A Time</a> who analyses why a resistor is rarely required.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVXJTcTkVpOjrUpa0wDCTzyWFuOda4keHFDjCYJl24vkyDcsaw9Y5hwbPJbYd0jsjchVxxAu2WfY1cqoXy5T6-iKhRylQYTxRBFTiOG-gqXN935_2o4xlac1bnNNGtLZ2igZvIdgp-p8Q/s1600/Temperature+Sensor_bb+%25282%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="249" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVXJTcTkVpOjrUpa0wDCTzyWFuOda4keHFDjCYJl24vkyDcsaw9Y5hwbPJbYd0jsjchVxxAu2WfY1cqoXy5T6-iKhRylQYTxRBFTiOG-gqXN935_2o4xlac1bnNNGtLZ2igZvIdgp-p8Q/s320/Temperature+Sensor_bb+%25282%2529.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Connecting the DS18B20 temperature is this simple. Most documentation says a 4.7K pull up resistor is required between the data and power lines but the internal pull up resistor is good enough.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Using the sensor requires the Arduino <a href="https://github.com/milesburton/Arduino-Temperature-Control-Library" target="_blank">temperature control library</a>, which in turn requires the One Wire library for communication. It is possible to have installed a One Wire library previously so there might be two. If so the version that was installed with the other esp8266 libraries must be used.<br />
<br />
We want to capture rapid temperature changes but minimise data streamed, so the algorithm I settled on is:-<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>read the temperature every 5 seconds, </li>
<li>if it hasn't changed much go back to sleep, </li>
<li>otherwise log measured temperature to a web service. </li>
</ul>
If no data has been logged for a while usually the temperature hasn't changed but if I don't see new data I worry the logger has failed, so to provide reassurance, log at least every10 minutes.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
After <a href="https://github.com/chrism28282828/in-out-temperature" target="_blank">implementing this</a>, when I have the sensor running, we can see live data:<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="280" src="https://app.ubidots.com/ubi/getchart/zgHZeWCKXV0oS5fkseyaKihPDZc" style="background: transparent;" width="430"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" height="280" src="https://app.ubidots.com/ubi/getchart/VqVy07HIDHLuAqWHdrx5D5OICcg" style="background: transparent;" width="430"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" height="280" src="https://app.ubidots.com/ubi/getchart/IIllmzCkjuiGgcePMOOjXN13fzI" style="background: transparent;" width="430"></iframe>
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="280" src="https://app.ubidots.com/ubi/getchart/4KzfBnv72b1sL_btA_d-4Yfbvx8" style="background: transparent;" width="430"></iframe>
<br />
or we can view it in a <a href="https://app.ubidots.com/ubi/public/getdashboard/page/uMKB80r35i7S6oZV2JmUHer_Iq0/#/uMKB80r35i7S6oZV2JmUHer_Iq0" target="_blank">dashboard.</a> Feel free to try this yourself, using our <a href="https://github.com/chrism28282828/in-out-temperature" target="_blank">code.</a> Before compiling, <a href="https://github.com/chrism28282828/in-out-temperature/blob/master/sketch_logtemperature/config-sample.h" target="_blank">config-sample.h</a> needs to be renamed to config.h and all the "TODO" fields replaced with appropriate values. For example, you must enter your WiFi access point name and password.<br />
<br />
The problem was solved for only a few dollars if you put zero value on your time but this was as much a learning experience as a solution and I've seen enough for it to be already apparent why the esp8266 has generated so much interest. A couple of bucks for a tiny integrated microcontroller, with lots of I/O and inbuilt communications is what is required for the oft spoken of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wireless_sensor_network" target="_blank">sensor networks</a> to emerge on a scale proponents have envisaged. <a href="http://www.csiro.au/" target="_blank">CSIRO</a> spent many millions trying to develop something similar, marketed as a <a href="http://capsil.org/capsilwiki/index.php/Fleck" target="_blank">Fleck</a> and now relegated to the <a href="http://www.snm.ethz.ch/Projects/Fleck" target="_blank">sensor networks museum</a>. The esp8266 from <a href="http://espressif.com/en/espressif-systems/about-us/" target="_blank">Espressif Systems (Shanghai)</a> is an order of magnitude more capable. That capability has attracted a buzz, will surely attract competitors and Espressif are close to releasing an even more capable <a href="http://hackaday.com/2015/11/06/the-latest-best-wifi-module-has-been-announced/" target="_blank">esp32</a> that can additionally communicate over <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bluetooth_low_energy" target="_blank">Bluetooth Low Energy</a>. <br />
<br />
I now know how hot the lounge has been though this is not yet a quality solution and there are <a href="http://hackerspace.pbworks.com/w/page/97777530/ESP8266%20Room%20Sensor" target="_blank">others</a> including a <a href="https://github.com/eyaleb" target="_blank">Lua version</a> by <a href="http://forum.makehackvoid.com/t/esp8266-operating-voltage-range-and-sleep-current/286/32" target="_blank">Eyal Lebedinsky</a> from our local hacker space. Ideally you want a device to arrive in the mail, fit a battery, look at a web browser and see the temperature. Getting a device that works out of the box and also comes with enough information to make tinkering easy would be nice. If time has value, the <a href="http://wirelesstemperaturelogger.com.au/" target="_blank">Wireless Loggers</a> would have been much cheaper this time around but properly developed, the esp8266 could be at the core of a far superior solution and surely someone will do a commercial esp8266 based temperature logger soon.</div>
Kenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2473504615610883562.post-6921342977145233692015-12-03T13:22:00.000+11:002015-12-05T14:16:44.345+11:00Texas Hold'em Is Scary and Fun<span style="background-color: white; color: #181818; font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large; line-height: 18px;"><i>“I never put off till tomorrow what I can possibly do - the day after.” </i></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><i><span style="background-color: white; color: #181818; font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;">― </span><a href="http://www.goodreads.com/author/show/3565.Oscar_Wilde" style="background-color: white; color: #666600; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none;">Oscar Wilde</a></i></span><br />
<br />
I played <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_hold_%27em" target="_blank">Texas Hold'em</a> for a few years in the early 1990s at informal poker nights and had a lot of fun. Usually I went home a few hundred dollars up or down, mostly down to begin with.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi89_4QLVp-2ubXiP6CWKU22NIcKboJzFGK2patmvTLyFq9lLV5N1hEF_yjHAiwVQW9tWcOhULnouipiVln1CGm8IcVYuhT2-fC3uo-iS1jX6bWXWhX5Kq94D_dICGCNGidstDj5lD7GHU/s1600/texasholdem.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi89_4QLVp-2ubXiP6CWKU22NIcKboJzFGK2patmvTLyFq9lLV5N1hEF_yjHAiwVQW9tWcOhULnouipiVln1CGm8IcVYuhT2-fC3uo-iS1jX6bWXWhX5Kq94D_dICGCNGidstDj5lD7GHU/s320/texasholdem.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
Then I became a full time research student. Suddenly I had tremendous freedom in what I did each day with enough scholarship income to avoid hunger. It was a joyous time where I could pursue anything I found interesting and this gave me an opportunity to improve my game. I looked for information on strategy and odds. I found only meagre resources in the libraries I searched but consumed what I discovered. The internet was barely functional then, no web browser and no way to search but I did discover a no money online multiplayer <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_hold_%27em" target="_blank">Hold'em</a> game and it was a great resource for procrastination. Gradually I improved so that I went home from poker nights in front more often than not. Not from a thorough understanding of probabilities and strategy but from an intuition developed through practice.<br />
<br />
There is a lot of luck in <a href="http://poker.about.com/od/advancedstrategy/tp/cashgametips.htm" target="_blank">no limit</a> Holdem so winning or losing over a short period is not a good indication of skill but as I got better I formed the view I was second to one other player who, like me, turned up for every match. A poker night would last for hours but nearly all the money would be won in a few hands and the evening's outcome was determined in a few crucial seconds. I had worked with my nemesis when we were hired as contractors for a complex technical project. I considered he had insufficient humility to abandon a priori beliefs when evidence required it and an unwillingness to persevere when a problem became difficult which led too often to failing to solve the problems we were working on. We remained friends though, and he went on to a series of sales roles in high profile technology companies, excelled and became wealthy. I could often build up my pile during the grind but too often he took me on the big hands. I'd sit there quietly, drinking little and focusing on the game while he drank heavily, kept up a banter that included what was in his hand, his strategy and what we should all do. He was a great raconteur and sometimes played hands without bothering to look at his cards. He seemed easy to beat. He would tell you, who had the best hand then raise against them and as he predicted lose. As far as I could tell he never lied. There were several times he had nothing, told me so, raised against me and lost. I could trust him, would follow his advice and win. Yet too often on those few crucial hands, he took the pot. I don't think he bothered too much with theory or probability, he just got inside your head. The most painful experiences were when, confident I had the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nut_hand" target="_blank">nuts</a>, I'd put all my effort into <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aggression_(poker)" target="_blank">aggressively</a> building the pot. I'd be pleased at my success only to discover my error at the <a href="http://www.pokernews.com/strategy/the-showdown-rules-procedures-and-etiquette-19237.htm" target="_blank">showdown</a>. The sense of being played by a drunk was emotionally devastating, I could never be sure if it was luck and that uncertainty further reduced my self belief. I no longer trusted my judgement and played too <a href="https://www.cardschat.com/f11/being-passive-84741/" target="_blank">passively</a>. Leaving money on the table is easier emotionally but over time is as expensive as overconfidence. My drunken nemesis would advise me to be more <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aggression_(poker)" target="_blank">aggressive</a> and while the advice was good it would unnerve me even more. Just occasionally he would be drunk enough to barely function and then I'd have a chance.<br />
<br />
High volatility made outcomes for a particular evening difficult to predict but over time all players would form a view of their relative ranking and persuading those who ranked lowly to keep turning up is difficult. Some low ranking players, like me, would try harder and improve but most would give up. The best new players were those suffering the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect" target="_blank">Dunning Krueger</a> effect and volatility could hide this from them for quite a while. Even then though, a constant stream of new players was needed. Eventually we ran out and poker nights came to an end.<br />
<br />
I find casinos entertaining. I don't delude myself I can win, but observing my own emotions and my success or otherwise in remaining objective and particularly watching the emotions in others is fascinating and fun.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkvnvIl5syL62dBywnQYQ5nhBYfd6O2yEf0GuUxijnVTxOXhO-XVhs3RNNVEQUTwU78QSysx0ZJfMM8TNnwFYMw1OQOQc8grtMEJtnTIvmH69od2nzlPfbrYnav2rbJ0_dgWgCSeYZJEU/s1600/1501-Melb-Casino-CasinoGames-Roulette-Players-974x676-03.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="222" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkvnvIl5syL62dBywnQYQ5nhBYfd6O2yEf0GuUxijnVTxOXhO-XVhs3RNNVEQUTwU78QSysx0ZJfMM8TNnwFYMw1OQOQc8grtMEJtnTIvmH69od2nzlPfbrYnav2rbJ0_dgWgCSeYZJEU/s320/1501-Melb-Casino-CasinoGames-Roulette-Players-974x676-03.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
With a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roulette#House_edge" target="_blank">2.7% house edge</a> and no skill required, roulette can provide a lot of fun as you interact with the dealer and other players, especially friends. If you turn over $1,000 you can expect to lose less than $30. So it is, on average, a cheap night out where you can go home with a wipe out or thousands up. Enough either way to generate an emotional response. Poker machines on the other hand I can't understand the attraction of. There is no fun in cold interactions with a machine that you know can't lose. The worst for me are those that provide choice. I know that if I hold reels optimally I will lose but if I get it wrong I'll lose more and yet the optimum strategy is unknowable. For one US machine optimum strategy has been <a href="http://wizardofodds.com/games/lock-and-roll/" target="_blank">documented</a> but mostly you don't know how many symbols are on a reel, how many of the ones you want are there or even if the simulated reels are random. How do you deal with that? The impossibility of rational choice I find paralysing and distressing. I'm unusual though because:-<br />
<blockquote cite="http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2005/12/sit-and-spin/304392/">
<span style="line-height: 20.0001px;"><i>As much as 70 percent of the $48 billion in gaming revenues raked in by the casinos comes from slots. (Texas Hold'em poker and other table games may be the latest gambling fad ..., but for the casinos it's all about machines, machines, machines.) - <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2005/12/sit-and-spin/304392/" target="_blank">The Atlanic 2005</a></i></span></blockquote>
With roulette, there is human interaction and thinking doesn't help, so you can ignore the game and have fun observing others and playing with your emotions and theirs. Elaborate pseudo strategies will impress friends when you win. You can wax lyrical on almost any topic and be taken seriously but you lose all respect when you wipe out. How weird is that when it's not your wisdom or lack thereof but down to variance? To maximise variance and therefore respect or contempt, bet on single numbers and walk away after a win.<br />
<br />
In the Canberra Casino there is a <a href="http://www.casinocanberra.com.au/poker" target="_blank">Hold'em game</a>. There are no women there and the players are mostly unkempt but these guys are the elite, the gods of the casino. I look over from the roulette table jealously, want to sit with them and recapture the fun of those poker nights of yore. Unlike roulette though, it is a game of skill. That table is no place for <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_superiority" target="_blank">illusory superiority</a> and the stakes are high enough to inflict serious injury. The internet resources available now are awesome though, so with sufficient effort it should be possible to develop the necessary skills. <a href="http://www.pokernews.com/poker-tools/poker-odds-calculator.htm?nw=1" target="_blank">Odds calculators</a>, play analysis software and realms of strategy advice. Of course the resources are available to everyone so the standard of play must be <a href="https://www.quora.com/What-is-it-like-to-earn-a-living-through-poker">much higher</a> than back in the day. No longer could <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Moneymaker" target="_blank">Chris Moneymaker</a> arise from obscurity and turn $40 into $2.5 million. Online practice is now a basic requirement rather than an opportunity to develop an edge. I'm not sure I could be bothered to put in the required effort but perhaps working at it with a friend would be fun. I believe I could have matched my nemesis in online play but face to face is a different, superior skill. I tried for a poker face but strong emotion is hard to conceal. Only face to face do you feel the depths of despair when you are owned or experience sheer joy if you successfully throw off the yoke. Only then are you happy when your opponent consumes another drink.<br />
<br />
Could I do it?Kenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2473504615610883562.post-16554581001942911912015-09-04T11:15:00.003+10:002015-09-14T01:23:01.868+10:00How To Get Free Land In Canberra and Develop It How You Like<i><span style="font-size: large;">Thou shalt not covet thy neighbours oval. </span></i><br />
<i><span style="font-size: large;">Or maybe thou should ...</span></i><br />
<br />
Clubs can make a great free office with lunch and coffee only a few steps away. Select an out of the way table, connect to the WiFi, a mobile phone and your virtual office is complete. It is comfortable, it's free and I can practice my billiard skills for a break. I'm not unique and I often see others beavering away. Clubs lack privacy though which made for a fascinating spectacle when a real estate adviser took the next table. Their team runs seminars, mentoring workshops and personalised advice sessions taking about an hour per client, which I was witnessing. The adviser, based in the Gold Coast was in town to service Canberra clients. Clients bare their souls, are given life coaching and it is all very pleasant and aspirational. At some point it usually becomes apparent achieving the client's life goals will need more wealth than they are likely to accumulate from a salary and the coach shows them how the problem can be overcome through leveraged real estate investment. The first client was living the dream. Single, young with an exciting job that paid an eye wateringly large salary. He was planning his first purchase and I could see the merits in the consultants arguments. Land just sits there and others give you money to make use of it. You might have to put a building on it before they will but most of what they pay is for the use of land that was just there. How wonderful is that, far better than working for a living. The only difficulty is getting control of it in the first place and the consultant can help with that. The next couple worked seasonally on the ski fields, baby sat their grandchildren overseas in the off season and had $25K outstanding on their credit cards. I'm thinking, stop wasting her time, but they got as much coaching attention as the dream guy. Get permanent work and pay down the credit card, then come back, was the gently delivered take home message. The next guy had two properties already, had paid a deposit on a third and had been refused finance so couldn't settle. It seemed like disaster but he was confident his life coach would sort it out and while she seemed more concerned than the client, she promised she would.<br />
<br />
I too was working on real estate and my project was to try and save our local open space. Our government is considering giving some of it away for free to the shareholders of a public company and I could barely believe it was even being considered.<br />
<br />
I'd assumed when this eyesore car park took over part of the local oval a few years ago it was built on land that the neighboring company had always owned.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEji_7Nu594Ru5-HQ2QteoceOR67pp8m5zE8Sjmgv8fwGvT9Ap10-DMw3Jfy2l_P8cIMKWNrg_Z-dcr7BbRbmNipTnB_i-KyXSVpPWvjSJ1zsMBGaPbFHg_QKI5Xg5VnsW69lqqr38hYnYo/s1600/IMG_20150813_110230.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEji_7Nu594Ru5-HQ2QteoceOR67pp8m5zE8Sjmgv8fwGvT9Ap10-DMw3Jfy2l_P8cIMKWNrg_Z-dcr7BbRbmNipTnB_i-KyXSVpPWvjSJ1zsMBGaPbFHg_QKI5Xg5VnsW69lqqr38hYnYo/s320/IMG_20150813_110230.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Car park usage on Thursday 13 August, a normal school day. It gets a lot more vehicles through it at pick up and drop off times as a large proportion of the school community is not local.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
I had heard they hadn't had to go through any planning permission because it was paid for from <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Building_the_Education_Revolution" target="_blank">building the education revolution</a> (BER) funds and so that these could be spent fast the government had exempted BER projects from normal planning requirements. In my view they had taken advantage of the exemption to build something so cheap and ugly that it would surely not have been accepted through any planning process. When dry it is dusty and pot holed and when raining becomes muddy enough that walking there will leave shoes caked. The picture above shows the level of usage on a normal school day and because it is not nice, the nearby government car park is used preferentially as shown in the picture below, taken at the same time.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs1iK4K6WiwZ8bkDQ3d5QfwnrQj0mInnLbbxr3O60xkqvjzVERorWWu1iwKiFjXaBULYACuMs7KfS1bW7OYLmpkIevfcUViHMitiExJWZYMRqJI-mRYppqRI1ywrfX1N9jcZfmj4BHrDM/s1600/IMG_20150813_110226.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs1iK4K6WiwZ8bkDQ3d5QfwnrQj0mInnLbbxr3O60xkqvjzVERorWWu1iwKiFjXaBULYACuMs7KfS1bW7OYLmpkIevfcUViHMitiExJWZYMRqJI-mRYppqRI1ywrfX1N9jcZfmj4BHrDM/s320/IMG_20150813_110226.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">This image taken at the same time as the previous image shows that the nearby government car park fills preferentially. Even though it is a little further to walk, it is bitumen, properly maintained and nicer.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
All we saw was graders turn up one day and spread gravel across our oval to build the eyesore dust bowl. I was pissed.<br />
<br />
Just recently I learned that not only did they beat the planning system to build the dust bowl but it wasn't even their land. They had been given a chunk of our open space for free. Based on nearby property values this huge area of 7760 m2 would be worth about $8 million if used for single dwellings and a multiple of that for a unit development. It was a common view at the time that it was their land as attested by the first comment on an "<span style="background-color: white; color: #282828; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><a href="http://the-riotact.com/anyone-else-angry-about-the-lyneham-oval/13050" target="_blank">Anyone else angry about the Lyneham Oval?</a>"</span> (<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3RMBzgiNpwGQVBPX1JVM0EzU00/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank">archive</a>) discussion in 2009. Technically it might already have been as they may have been given the land a few years earlier. The <a href="http://www.bcc.act.edu.au/Default.aspx?PageID=5872248&Page=2&A=PhotoGallery&PID=30551&Items=12" target="_blank">explanation</a> (<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3RMBzgiNpwGWFlWUXV3a3dESDA/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank">archive</a>) from Brindabella Christian Education (BCE), trading as Brindabella Christian College, is that "<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">When the two storey Senior College building was developed a few years ago this was only made possible by the ACT Government entering into a 20-year Sub-Lease with Brindabella for the adjacent oval precinct land allowing for the necessary parking the College required to then be able to build to the extremity of the existing College site boundary." </span>That might also explain why the car park is so much bigger than would be required to meet school parking needs. After all when you are getting valuable land for free you might as well grab as much as you can get. How they ever got a large chunk of oval in the first place, why they got so much and how they did it without the neighbours finding out deserves further explanation in my view.<br />
<br />
I'd thought that sort of thing just couldn't happen here, Canberra is famous for restrictive building rules. I was shocked that our leaders had given away a valuable community asset for nil consideration.<br />
<br />
There was a time when some of the facilities, for example the basketball courts owned by BCE, were easily accessible to the rest of the community but fences around schools have become fashionable so BCE joined the fad and the community lost access.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYriOaTSKH46ypyZeaKfq8SFOlKyyKCdirxfJCDkHacbfqG93sNS5Wr9KygynTs_PGvkuU4akoWwWX4Dg2F6TNzziWFVlkWJj5bvBE-DJviFRz2X8q-FoW5_t9Lt_Cr-PhWG8JIVn38gk/s1600/IMG_20150810_093004.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYriOaTSKH46ypyZeaKfq8SFOlKyyKCdirxfJCDkHacbfqG93sNS5Wr9KygynTs_PGvkuU4akoWwWX4Dg2F6TNzziWFVlkWJj5bvBE-DJviFRz2X8q-FoW5_t9Lt_Cr-PhWG8JIVn38gk/s320/IMG_20150810_093004.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The basketball court behind this fence was previously available for community access.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The BCE fence creates a clear delineation between what the Lyneham community can access and what is for the exclusive use of Brindabella Education's School community. It emphasises the them and us of Brindabella Christian School. In the general community accessible area is the BCE rubbish facility, an open drainage channel for BCE storm water runoff and the eyesore car park. Behind the fence are the facilities available to the school community.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjt_GyrE5d8CGzLSN4g-ex1HA5s-ZZP55Yd857Frpo29MVPOtnsEdJeskHJXtQdOU661Da4xmYyVENhbaCB7eOOzMiNviGDA9zsI-ihP17IaGrmdo4R2XSLWW8wWu57XK3RTXJPYuOFfOU/s1600/IMG_20150814_113154-PANO.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="131" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjt_GyrE5d8CGzLSN4g-ex1HA5s-ZZP55Yd857Frpo29MVPOtnsEdJeskHJXtQdOU661Da4xmYyVENhbaCB7eOOzMiNviGDA9zsI-ihP17IaGrmdo4R2XSLWW8wWu57XK3RTXJPYuOFfOU/s320/IMG_20150814_113154-PANO.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Brindabella locates their waste facility outside the fence, on community land.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyjjMcMkUjG0a-B_RIF1RepeIlWnb2LQxX5v9Onw9rchAlxmR3wnIE2KWLeYzybYpej415Pp-2AjXUQ6WY3ZCpN2sw_xVWqyxxePy83KpuuIUIm8N-SvcoVYGg7Y2mG_11Fxhr0CnQK-A/s1600/IMG_20150814_113258.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyjjMcMkUjG0a-B_RIF1RepeIlWnb2LQxX5v9Onw9rchAlxmR3wnIE2KWLeYzybYpej415Pp-2AjXUQ6WY3ZCpN2sw_xVWqyxxePy83KpuuIUIm8N-SvcoVYGg7Y2mG_11Fxhr0CnQK-A/s320/IMG_20150814_113258.jpg" width="240" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">An open drainage canal runs along the outside of the Brindabella Christian Education fence.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Outside the fence Brindabella share the public land along with everyone else which is nice to see. Though perhaps it is surprising that they do when they <a href="http://www.bcc.act.edu.au/Default.aspx?PageID=5872248&Page=2&A=PhotoGallery&PID=30551&Items=12"><span id="goog_1187885863"></span>call it<span id="goog_1187885864"></span></a> (<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3RMBzgiNpwGWFlWUXV3a3dESDA/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank">archive</a>) a "<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">bindi laden dust-bowl".</span><br />
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWwjCiJCsYBDnpacAA8OYdc06yKy8aFOGY9yI9mu5Z4jV_O6AJ8YX872npKTXnHFS-KKhTNlnQAqJtQUlh16H6py2KQFyZw1yDFz3SXV34bREjRaxotBq3BSl7HqYds7RkgSx2X-1iJuE/s1600/IMG_20150902_101817_picmonkeyed.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="156" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWwjCiJCsYBDnpacAA8OYdc06yKy8aFOGY9yI9mu5Z4jV_O6AJ8YX872npKTXnHFS-KKhTNlnQAqJtQUlh16H6py2KQFyZw1yDFz3SXV34bREjRaxotBq3BSl7HqYds7RkgSx2X-1iJuE/s640/IMG_20150902_101817_picmonkeyed.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Bindababella Christian College students using the oval.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The dust bowl, or mud bowl when it rains, is however an appropriate description of the little used car park where once the oval extended.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicXMMgZK2ZHl8j1MWIaKAmelXSmSvyKvVSApZWC7jRA_m2CmBQvbPdQa8PfjYzdYNgLF6yC_HaBUkqfPYgjC8DPue5kjZWcTEBMOu5fYgsthR82CAlQeFjaWaE5lpnYsX6Z3D3UregBZc/s1600/IMG_20150902_102053.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicXMMgZK2ZHl8j1MWIaKAmelXSmSvyKvVSApZWC7jRA_m2CmBQvbPdQa8PfjYzdYNgLF6yC_HaBUkqfPYgjC8DPue5kjZWcTEBMOu5fYgsthR82CAlQeFjaWaE5lpnYsX6Z3D3UregBZc/s320/IMG_20150902_102053.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Children play sport beyond the dust/mud bowl car park, which is too big for the number of cars using it and was once part of Lyneham Oval.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
We have now suffered the dust/mud bowl for six years which was not only going to be sealed but <a href="http://the-riotact.com/anyone-else-angry-about-the-lyneham-oval/13050" target="_blank">according to a contemporaneous</a> (<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3RMBzgiNpwGQVBPX1JVM0EzU00/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank">archive</a>) claim was to have "<span style="background-color: white; color: #282828; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 20px;">some sporting facilities (eg a basketball court)" </span>as well. None of that happened and BCE are <a href="http://www.bcc.act.edu.au/Default.aspx?PageID=5872248&Page=2&A=PhotoGallery&PID=30551&Items=12">now saying</a> (<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3RMBzgiNpwGWFlWUXV3a3dESDA/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank">archive</a>):-<br />
<br />
<strong style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In a further development what is now unclear for our College Community is the future of a sealed car-park in any form regardless of the current Sports Pavilion proposal !!</strong><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;"> as we have been unable to get clarity as to whether Minister Rattenbury will support the permanent tar/concrete-sealing of the current car-park under the existing 20-year lease as a fallback position should there simply be too much opposition to what we are now proposing</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></div>
So it is quite clear that whatever they promise when getting public land for free, it all changes once they get it. This matters because, now that they want more free land, the government on the developers behalf is advocating for them when <a href="http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/new-sports-facilities-for-private-college-set-for-lyneham-oval-20141109-11idf9.html" target="_blank">Ms Priest from Sport and Recreation said</a> <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12.1599998474121px; line-height: 17.0240001678467px;">"This proposed new facility will be a great asset not only for the three schools in the area but also for the local community, and will come at no cost to the territory." </span><br />
<br />
Their student population is mostly not local so the drop offs and pick ups create a lot of vehicular traffic. That is not to claim, other than the dust bowl, they are a terrible neighbour. All activity inconveniences neighbours to some extent and educating children is important. The school's rapid growth suggests they are providing an education that is appealing to students and their families but whether it is responsible to grow rapidly if you don't have enough land leaves me wondering. Some of their own community is <a href="http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/brindabella-christian-college-slates-review-as-parents-raise-governance-concerns-20150805-gis83m#ixzz3kj6dGS4x">wondering too so</a> "<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12.1599998474121px; line-height: 17.0240001678467px;">the board of Brindabella Christian College has announced a review of the school's operations amid rising tensions with some parents over a perceived lack of transparency and consultation in key decisions</span><br />
<div>
<br />
There is a lot of doubt what those of us outside the school community would ever get from the current proposal. The minister explains "there is certainly an intent to have a written memorandum of understanding"<br />
<br />
<audio controls="" id="myAudio2">
<source src="http://www.static.urremote.com/2015-08-20-ABC666.mp3
" type="audio/mpeg"></source>
Your browser does not support the audio element.
</audio> 2015-08-20 <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/canberra/programs/">ABC 666</a><br />
<script>
myAudio2.oncanplay = function() {
myAudio2.currentTime="231";
};
</script>
which is <a href="http://haveyoursay.planning.act.gov.au/lyneham-neighbourhood-oval?tool=survey_tool&tool_id=LNOSurvey&ts=1441258419#tool_tab">further explained</a> (<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3RMBzgiNpwGcWo3R2ZqUWNrM00/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank">archive</a>) as "<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px;">an arrangement that will be formalised under a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)". </span>An MOU is usually entered into early in a negotiation phase because MOU's create expectations but are unenforceable. In this case there isn't an MOU but an intention to create an MOU, so the Minister is happy to give away public land with an intention to create unenforceable expectations despite the past failure to perform. If the new building is built on BCE land there is no suggestion of public access. At the first public meeting we were told the likely alternative on BCE land is at the front of the school and at the second next to the Motor Inn where some existing buildings were old and due for demolition. From BCE's point of view this is a hard nosed trade off, public land in exchange for public access. Yet somehow the minister thinks an intention to create unenforceable expectations is sufficient to protect the public interest in exchange for millions of dollars worth of public land.<br />
<br />
The minister continues "and then the ACT government remains the lease holder with Brindabella Christian College as a sub lessee and so if there are any changes that the government didn't agree with the government of course always has the right to withdraw the lease." Pull the other one! Sport and Recreation couldn't get them to seal the car park, they will never take back the land once there is a building on it.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Land Tenure In The ACT</h3>
Nominally all land in the ACT is leased from the state, though land is effectively freehold. No one looks at the lease terms when they buy a home and that makes sense, a state government that tried to take back people's homes would be voted out in an instant. It makes less sense in other situations though and can lead to perverse outcomes which present great opportunities for developers.<br />
<br />
The heart of any community is volunteer, community and sporting groups. These groups provide important services to their members, need space to operate and couldn't exist if they had to rent that space from Westfields or some similarly profit motivated landlord. To support these groups the government frequently leases them land and charges concessional or nil rent. Lease and zoning restrictions restrict land use to the particular activity envisaged. Community groups come and go, sports grow and decline in popularity and in theory the land will be returned to the state when the lease ends. In practise though a lease of any kind over land in the ACT is forever. Sporting/Community groups frequently have the use of land that is worth many millions of dollars if it could be used for residential or commercial purposes. These groups can have various formal structures and this includes being a public company where the company share holders ultimately own the land. These groups like everyone else in the ACT with leased land regard it as their own and eventually lessees want to generate income from the land they control and become property developers. It is generally accepted that a prime lease is equivalent to freehold but sometimes land is subleased, where the prime lessee is the Sport and Recreation Department. Sport and Recreation claim when I have asked them at public meetings that land subject to this type of lease is different and will eventually be returned to the state. Mark from the Sport and Recreation, in a meeting on Friday August 20, to explain the plans for Lyneham oval said there were occasions where sub leased land hand been recovered from lessees but conceded it was not common. Sport and Recreation's views are not even shared by BCE who are using the argument that land previously leased to them for free to be used for car parking, belongs to them. In the BCE <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1JGFkRU20LJrv8TBSs8_xDKkGa-8StItlnD497rtKc5g/edit?usp=sharing" target="_blank">brochure</a> distributed via letter box drop, they mount the argument:- "The much quoted 1550 people strong petition against the project alludes to the "future" sub-leasing and development of the Lyneham Oval by private interests, ignoring that the Sports Pavilion would be 80% substantively built on land already leased to Brindabella Christian College by the ACT government until 2029 with lease roll over provisions." Sport and Recreation are asking us to believe something patently false where even the developers are arguing that once you get land under any terms it is yours forever. Why is that? Even if Sport and Recreation thought a car park was desirable, there was no need to give the land away. They could have allowed it to be built on our oval using BCE funds but because they leased the land to BCE, it is now in BCE's view, their land.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
It is impossible to know when a group initially seeks land what they will eventually do with it. Even those seeking the land often don't know as the group changes over time but it is highly likely when ACT leases are in practice equivalent to freehold that eventually the land will be privatised. A current example is "<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12.1599998474121px; line-height: 17.0240001678467px;"><a href="http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/builders-and-elderly-get-rare-chance-at-private-belconnen-land-20150826-gj89gh.html#ixzz3kIOedgjE" target="_blank">holes 19 to 27 of the Woodhaven Green club</a>" </span>which are being developed as town houses, another is Canberra City Bowling Club which was <a href="http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/canberra-life/braddon-developer-nik-bulum-buys-canberra-city-bowling-club-site-to-create-a-vibrant-community-hub-20150625-ghxsf1.html" target="_blank">sold to a developer</a> planning to "<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14.5920000076294px; line-height: 20.4288005828857px;">create a 'village-within-a-suburb'"</span> and in Lyneham at the moment the whole process is on show in three different developments. These being, Next Gen, a recently completed sports facility, a childcare development on the Hockey Centre site currently wending it's way through an approval process and of course the land acquisition phase on Lyneham oval.<br />
<br />
<h4>
Next Gen</h4>
<a href="http://www.tennis.com.au/act/" target="_blank">Tennis ACT</a> got some land years ago and recently partnered with <a href="http://abr.business.gov.au/SearchByAbn.aspx?abn=56079495944" target="_blank">Next Generation Health Clubs Australia Limited</a>, an Australian Private Company. From the <a href="http://www.nextgenclubs.com.au/home/canberra.aspx" target="_blank">Next Gen website</a> you could get the impression that it was a club in the sense of a community group but their advertisement for a General Manager leaves no doubt where it <a href="https://nextgenclubs.expr3ss.com/jobDetails?selectJob=139&ppt=9f9bab17" target="_blank">says</a> (<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3RMBzgiNpwGYUVxZUdwVy1tWXc/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank">archive</a>) "<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.8); font-family: 'Roboto Slab', 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Reporting to the COO, you will be responsible for providing leadership and overall direction of all operations along with: Evolving and directing the business strategy to enable the Club to continue with its long term growth, aligned with strong profitability and cash generation</span>".<br />
<br />
I visited Next Gen to see what the public gets. From the outside it looks nice but only members can get in. The public are kept out by the gate pictured below.</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhokXJ0EtJFjIZ1Rgymq6iigzJFXk5XuDhAvm1owosyP8Rttx96jb6xjCjbc4X95ia61ontrZasgRC2edOptdxpq7AY_ITbL26c1tGz5B6jxfA9f3YstESkl-v905cHLxYOzwuWG57FLOM/s1600/IMG_20150826_100631.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhokXJ0EtJFjIZ1Rgymq6iigzJFXk5XuDhAvm1owosyP8Rttx96jb6xjCjbc4X95ia61ontrZasgRC2edOptdxpq7AY_ITbL26c1tGz5B6jxfA9f3YstESkl-v905cHLxYOzwuWG57FLOM/s400/IMG_20150826_100631.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Entry to the Next Gen sports facility. The receptionist told me only members can enter. Even the coffee shop which can be seen beyond the gates is inaccessible. This seems quite extreme for a facility on public land. Some of the facility is tennis courts which are presumably accessible without joining Next Gen but to the casual observer it looks like the whole facility is Next Gen. I could have booked a tour aimed at signing up new members to see more but didn't.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
I don't know the terms under which Next Gen get to use the land but casual observation suggests it has been privatised as effectively as the land our homes are built on.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Daycare At The Hockey Centre</h3>
A daycare facility to be built at the Hockey Centre is a proposal currently wending it's way through the approval process. Next Gen and the Lyneham oval proposal requires wading through and interpreting marketing material, and most of the interesting stuff is not accessible. Hockey is up front and provides an informative <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3rQNPoFzlTeUXo1RFlpamZnX1U/view" target="_blank">power point presentation</a> and <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3rQNPoFzlTeTDUxbmtpMXNKT1JoNk1aaDFlM254WHJqZTd3/view" target="_blank">project narrative</a> which cuts to the chase. Their goal is to maximise their revenue. At a poorly attended public presentation they said their first idea was a sports medicine facility but they felt the zoning change would take too long and a child care facility could be developed faster. For the Hockey Centre, the child care facility is a virtual development which removes obfuscation and makes it simple to understand. They get the necessary permissions from the ACT government and flip the land to <a href="http://www.kidsclubchildcare.com.au/about-us/who-we-are/" target="_blank">Kids Club</a>, a commercial daycare provider on a 20 year lease with a 9 year option (slide 11) who builds the facility and pays for the privilege. I'm a little confused on the exact amount they pay and the payment schedule but the slide pack (slide 10) says "$2m capital works @ NHC, $3m childcare" and my notes from the presentation say "$2.7m pitch replacement and $3m sinking fund" so for discussion purposes lets use $5m. The slides also explain that this is the first development with more to follow, including another gym.<br />
<br />
Gifts from government in the form of public land is off the books in that it doesn't have to appear in a budget or be considered for value against alternative uses of government funds. In this case there will be even be documentation to show the recipients paid market value. The profit emerges by magic. Government doesn't have to justify the expenditure and the recipient doesn't have to account for how they spend the money. While the developers are generous in explaining their plans, almost no one actually turned up for the presentation or knows anything about it. I wouldn't either if my awareness hadn't been raised by the Lyneham oval give away as I'd normally rely on our bureaucrats and elected representatives to protect our interests. The Hockey Centre proposal explicitly states their "desire to remove ongoing reliance on ACT government funding" (slide 4) but this is only achieved by getting much bigger government funding in the form of a capital transfer. Of course, once you get the windfall what you end up doing with it is up to you. The mechanism in this case is described briefly in the slide pack and some further information was provided at the public presentation. The full hockey site of 41,000 m2 is currently held under a concessional lease until 2099 (slide 6) and the land is valued at $520K (verbally at presentation). The valuation must be on the basis that the land can only be used for hockey as nearby building blocks of 500 m2 sell for about $500K and this land is 80 times bigger. This suggests the land is worth about $41 million if it could be used for detached housing and would be a multiple of that if it could be used for higher density housing. It was explained at the meeting that to build a day care centre they must deconcessionalise the land on which it will sit for which they must pay market value. On the face of it the requirement to pay market value would kill the proposal as the Hockey Centre are merely land flipping and if you pay market value one day and flip the next at market value there is no profit. Market value is what Kid's Club is paying the Hockey Centre but to generate the magic $5 million when the land is flipped, the market value that the Hockey Centre pays the ACT government must be on a different basis.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Planning Issues</h3>
Not only do land beneficiaries get their land for free but the planning process is subverted. At one level there is a Territory Plan for housing here, retail space there, industrial activity somewhere else etc. but when land is acquired for free none of this matters and allowable land use is changed to suit the land beneficiaries. While to me the Hockey Centre looks a great place for a child care centre as it is on a commuter route with good off street parking, it certainly promotes car use and the motivation for siting one there is profit maximisation for the existing lessee rather than better child care or what would be the best use of that public land. Under these circumstances developers can get public land for free with more freedom on how they use it than if they purchased commercial land.<br />
<br />
<h3>
The Role Of Government</h3>
The first public meeting in Lyneham, I've heard of despite living here for about 17 years took place at Brindabella Christian School. During the architects presentation they said, among many provocations, that if BCE didn't get the oval they would build their new building next to the road where it would be ugly and there was nothing anyone could do because schools do not require development approvals. At that stage it was the Department of Sport and Recreation's Development Proposal, endorsed by BCE and the department was there. The proposal presented didn't pass the sniff test, there were several hundred people that thought so and the mood was vicious. BCE describes <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1JGFkRU20LJrv8TBSs8_xDKkGa-8StItlnD497rtKc5g/edit" target="_blank">this mood</a> as <span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.8); font-family: 'Roboto Slab', 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19px; white-space: pre-wrap;">"people simply resorted to shouting and personal attacks, drowning out any form of civil conversation on the issue." </span>I didn't think it was that bad but I did think that would be the end of it.<br />
<br />
Months later there was a second public meeting at Lyneham High School where some variations were presented. This time there was only about a hundred people and the mood, while less confrontational was similarly opposed. The Sports Minister, Shane Rattenbury, spoke and said he saw merit in the proposal but was mainly seeking to gauge public opinion. He expressed concern that the audience may not be representational of the wider community. <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1JGFkRU20LJrv8TBSs8_xDKkGa-8StItlnD497rtKc5g/edit" target="_blank">BCE argues</a> "<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.8); font-family: 'Roboto Slab', 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19px; white-space: pre-wrap;">the information session was attended and hijacked by vocal opponents stifling any possible genuine discussion."</span> and that <span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.8); font-family: 'Roboto Slab', 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19px; white-space: pre-wrap;">"The generators of the petition have resorted to strategically attending and disrupting any community discussion" </span>but until this public meeting there was no organised opposition, the anger was spontaneous. I was shocked that despite what the minister was saying the proposal was being presented as a fait accompli. The minister was pointing out the positives - there is a need for more community facilities of this type, this land (in his view) was neglected and the ACT's budget position meant that the $1 mill. capital required to irrigate the oval would never become available. One audience member said the sprinkler system, which hasn't been used for years, had been tested a few months earlier and only two sprinklers failed to operate. It seemed unlikely that BCE would be tipping in $1 mill. into oval irrigation so when I got the opportunity later on I quizzed the minister on this and he said he was merely quoting from figures provided by the department of what it would cost them. I pointed out the improbability of BCE spending $1 mill. and he was unconcerned whether the figure he quoted was unrelated to what BCE intended to spend. I was later told by Mark from Sport and Recreation, in a meeting on Friday August 20, that there was an intention to use bore water rather than potable water to reduce watering costs but there was no commitment for any particular spend or specific design from BCE. Perhaps all that BCE will do is connect up a bore and pump to the existing piping, who knows. Later on the minister doesn't mention the figure but Sport and Recreation <a href="http://haveyoursay.planning.act.gov.au/lyneham-neighbourhood-oval?tool=survey_tool&tool_id=LNOSurvey&ts=1441258419#tool_tab">still maintains</a> (<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3RMBzgiNpwGcWo3R2ZqUWNrM00/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank">archive</a>) BCE's "<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px;">recommissioning of the irrigation system"</span> is a principal feature of BCE's proposal. Also featured again are basketball courts, referred to as <span style="background-color: white; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px;"> "</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px;">outdoor sport courts"</span> on the <a href="http://haveyoursay.planning.act.gov.au/lyneham-neighbourhood-oval?tool=survey_tool&tool_id=LNOSurvey&ts=1441258419#tool_tab" target="_blank">Sport and Recreation web site</a>.<br />
<br />
One audience member sensing the danger said straight up, how do we stop it and got no clear answer. That person later approached the minister suggesting, if there was doubt as to the extent of community opposition the government should survey the community and the minister dismissed the suggestion. This person took up the challenge and initiated a petition which read "<span style="background-color: white; color: #1f1f1f; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 16.25px;">The following residents of the Australian Capital Territory draw to the attention of the Assembly the potential loss of Urban Open Space (PRZ1) in Lyneham through sub-leasing and development, in particular by the current proposal to sub-lease and develop Lyneham Neighbourhood Oval.</span><br />
<i class="defanged8-" style="color: #1f1f1f; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 16.25px;"><span class="defanged8-" lang="EN-US" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);"> </span></i><span style="background-color: white; color: #1f1f1f; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 16.25px;">Your petitioners, therefore, request the Assembly to prevent further loss of Lyneham’s Urban Open Space by (1) not entering into further sub-leases of Urban Open Space to any business enterprise, (2) not allowing further development on Urban Open Space by any business enterprise, and (3) not rezoning any land currently zoned Urban Open Space for the benefit of any business enterprise.</span>"<br />
<br />
With help from a few other people he collected 1550 signatures, perhaps the biggest petition ever in the ACT. The text seems pretty straight forward but Minister Rattenbury didn't think so when he said "I do take some issue with the petition that was out there. I've seen it, I probably would have signed it because it says do you object to a private enterprise being able to develop on an oval, and when you put it like that, yeah I'd probably sign it too. Ah but I think it is a more nuanced discussion than that and I think it is worth trying to have a more nuanced discussion."<br />
<audio controls="" id="myAudio5">
<source src="http://www.static.urremote.com/2015-08-20-ABC666.mp3
" type="audio/mpeg"></source>
Your browser does not support the audio element.
</audio> 2015-08-20 <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/canberra/programs/">ABC 666</a><br />
<script>
myAudio5.oncanplay = function() {
myAudio5.currentTime="775";
};
</script>
Of course Minister Rattenbury had seen it, he tabled it in parliament, and by inaccurately quoting from it he was subtly suggesting the signatories have been hoodwinked. Minister Rattenbury says "I don't particularly want to put a view we are just starting a public consultation process today to try and gauge the community view."<br />
<audio controls="" id="myAudio">
<source src="http://www.static.urremote.com/2015-08-20-ABC666.mp3
" type="audio/mpeg"></source>
Your browser does not support the audio element.
</audio> 2015-08-20 <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/canberra/programs/">ABC 666</a><br />
<br />
<script>
myAudio.oncanplay = function() {
myAudio.currentTime="122";
};
</script>
So after two public meetings and a huge petition we are just starting the public consultation process. Really? How will public opinion be gauged?<br />
<br />
According to Minister Rattenbury "To try and help the government get a clear sense of where the community is at on this proposal we are trying to be very open in putting this out to a community survey and so all residents of Lyneham down to Macarthur Avenue and even though some of that's O'Connor it is really part of the community ahh and all the parents of the three schools are being sent a survey to ask them their opinion and this will, I guess, give us a really objective and measurable ahh. Because one of the questions I was asked at a recent public meeting was how does the government decide what is a meausure of community sentiment. That is a really good question and one I've given a bit of thought to and a public meeting where 100 people turn up, is that a full measure of the community sentiment or is it just the really motivated people that turn up to a public meeting but the rest of the community has a different view so we are trying to get that broad community sense."<br />
<br />
<audio controls="" id="myAudio4">
<source src="http://www.static.urremote.com/2015-08-20-ABC666.mp3
" type="audio/mpeg"></source>
Your browser does not support the audio element.
</audio> 2015-08-20 <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/canberra/programs/">ABC 666</a><br />
<script>
myAudio4.oncanplay = function() {
myAudio4.currentTime="356";
};
</script>
<br />
<br />
The minister issued a similarly worded press release <a href="http://www.cmd.act.gov.au/open_government/inform/act_government_media_releases/rattenbury/2015/lyneham-community-encouraged-to-provide-feedback-on-oval">press release</a> (<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3RMBzgiNpwGenFRa3dnWmhaVjg/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank">archive</a>) where again he says "<span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, 'Segoe UI', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.8000001907349px; line-height: 20.4799995422363px;">The survey is open to residents within the Lyneham area, and parents/carers of children who attend any of three schools." </span><br />
<br />
This survey turns out to be online using a <a href="http://engagementhq.com/features/surveys/">commercial tool</a> which is totally inadequate for surveying opinions on anything controversial. Registration requires only an email address, multiple registrations are possible and even with the same registration it appears to accept multiple votes. There is no way to restrict voting in the way the minister claims. Perhaps his claim relies on the <span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px;">Do you live in: </span>check box on the voting form. Survey integrity was questioned at the Sport and Recreation meeting on Friday August 20 at Lyneham Primary School. Ms Jenny Priest, Director Sport & Recreation Services and Mark said they would use voter IP addresses to ensure integrity. Questions asked included; is it to be one vote per IP address, does that mean more than one person can't vote from one house, does it mean votes when people are outside their home are invalid? They couldn't answer. IP address is a notoriously poor method of geolocating someone and a contract issued on <a href="https://www.mturk.com/mturk/welcome">Mechanical Turk</a> could get as many votes as you wanted for your favourite case from unique IP addresses.<br />
<br />
As a tool for seeking feedback on controversial issues it is a joke. It requires a lot of effort to find and participate in while allowing voting from anyone, multiple voting, voting from anywhere and has propaganda for the yes case only, on the voting site. For example <a href="http://haveyoursay.planning.act.gov.au/lyneham-neighbourhood-oval?tool=survey_tool&tool_id=LNOSurvey&ts=1441258419#tool_tab">it says</a> (<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3RMBzgiNpwGcWo3R2ZqUWNrM00/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank">archive</a>) "<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px;">Given that the proposal is wholly funded by BCC, it will only proceed in its entirety" </span>but at community meetings we were told the building would be built regardless.<br />
<br />
Compare this to the electoral commission which maintains electoral rolls, makes sure people are entitled to vote, there is only one vote per person and which doesn't run propaganda material from one side of a debate. Minister Rattenbury said "I do take some issue with the petition that was out there." and then followed up with a consultation process which is farcical. The petitioners list their name and address and this offers huge opportunities for checking and analysis. If you doubt the validity you could even ask some if they really did sign. An interested government could also ask some petitioners why they signed. Analysis by address would be really useful. I collected about 100 of the signatures going door to door and my experience was that a lot of people weren't home. Of those that were, more than half didn't know anything about the proposal. After some background explanation most of those signed and of the people that were already aware, well over 90% signed. Objections to signing, though few, were varied, often vague and sometimes seemed based on an unwillingness to engage with door knockers. I came across two people who said they had children at Brindabella School and one was keen on the development and the other opposed on the grounds that their children would be there only a few years but the oval would be gone forever.<br />
<br />
While Minister Rattenbury in his public utterances claim he is mainly seeking community feedback BCE have advised he is far more committed than that where <a href="http://www.bcc.act.edu.au/Default.aspx?PageID=5872248&amp;Page=2&amp;A=PhotoGallery&amp;PID=30551&amp;Items=12" target="_blank">they say</a> (<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3RMBzgiNpwGWFlWUXV3a3dESDA/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank">archive</a>) "<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">Due to concerns of the Minister Brindabella agreed to withdraw the previous DA to engage in further public consultation on an offer by Minister Rattenbury to then fund our resubmission following further consultation" </span>Actually BCE come across as annoyed that what they saw as a firm commitment from government has become less so where <a href="http://www.bcc.act.edu.au/Default.aspx?PageID=5872248&amp;Page=2&amp;A=PhotoGallery&amp;PID=30551&amp;Items=12" target="_blank">they argue</a> (<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3RMBzgiNpwGWFlWUXV3a3dESDA/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank">archive</a>) "<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">Originally our Sports Pavilion proposal had the then support of Minister Andrew Barr as Minister for Sport & Recreation and Minister Joy Burch as Minister for Education. In the more recent portfolio moves the proposal has now fallen to Minister Shane Rattenbury as the Minister for Sport & Recreation. </span>Ultimately though it is the Greens that matter as Minister Rattenbury holds the balance of power in the single chamber ACT parliament. Nothing can happen in Canberra without Greens support and in this case, according to the developer, Minister Rattenbury is so committed that the developers reported he agreed to "fund our resubmission following further consultation". Minister Rattenbury's constituents can only deploy their own resources to try and save our public open space from being given away for free and Minister Rattenbury is trying hard to ignore them.<br />
<br />
This begs the question as to what our politicians are up to. First they think giving away public land for free is acceptable, then in the case of the car park land they do it without telling their affected constituents and when people object they remain resolute. They are also doing it all over Canberra. They have just been <a href="http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/tennis-anyone-jubilant-telopea-park-at-land-swap-backdown-20150812-gixj99.html#ixzz3kekOWdZ7">beaten in a developer give away in Telopea Park</a> where "<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12.1599998474121px; line-height: 17.0240001678467px;">Telopea Park School's Parents and Community Association president Paul Haesler said that in this latest battle he had always been confident the Government could be pushed back because its decision was "so manifestly and obviously flawed and unfair." </span>In this development Canberra Services Club were planning to generate cash from turning leased land into housing and the politicians fought hard against the community on the developers behalf.<br />
<br />
<br />
<h3>
The Business Opportunity</h3>
The underlying opportunity is that, with a plausible story, prime land can be acquired in the centre of Canberra for free. In most of Australia property developers can make money by purchasing land and then <a href="https://theconversation.com/four-ways-we-can-clean-up-corruption-in-land-rezoning-42557" target="_blank">waiting or lobbying for rezoning</a> so that it can later be resold at a higher price. Developing under these conditions requires substantial capital and a risk that you won't get a favourable rezoning. If that happens you are stuck with holding costs and will probably lose money. The ACT is much better. As the land can be acquired for free, resale is all profit. This also means no interest expense, resulting in negligible holding costs and therefore negligible risk of loss. In the acquisition phase you will have to accept restrictions that limit profitability but any promises you make will eventually be forgotten. The politicians can be persuaded to support your acquisition and in the face of community opposition, government departments will help promote your development. Then after waiting a while and some more lobbying the land use can be changed and you get to control the distribution of the profits. Spend them on a community project you care about or pocket them, the choice is yours. Our government promotes these activities as public/private partnerships. Capitalism doesn't get any better than that and the <a href="http://www.actgreens.org.au/" target="_blank">Greens</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #505054; font-family: proxima-nova, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21px;"> </span>can even be persuaded to spruik for you. Who'd have thought?<br />
<br />
<h3>
Opportunity Specifics</h3>
There are several ways I can immediately think of to exploit the underlying opportunity. At the community meeting with Sport and Recreation on Friday August 20 one idea suggested was to seek the support of the neighbours in return for storage rights, to build a garage on public land near the proponents house. This would require establishing an organisation to undertake the endeavour and seems too blatant to pass the plausible story test. It also lacks ambition, a bit of isolated land could only generate modest profit. Better to think bigger. Buying shares in Brindabella Christian Education Limited (BCE) is a great opportunity. According to the 2014 Annual report there are only <a href="http://www.bcc.act.edu.au/2014-Annual-Report/index.html#56-57/z" target="_blank">6 company members</a> (Note 18). BCE is a non profit public company which I'm told is a requirement for running a school and this presents both opportunities and difficulties. The opportunity is that shares ought to be cheap to acquire. Shares would normally be valued as a multiple of dividends so shares that can not pay a dividend by this valuation method are worthless. Of course the shares have no value to the acquirer either if there is no way to extract the company's capital but I feel confident this can be overcome. Non profits can't pay dividends but are notorious for paying out profits in other forms. I note from the <a href="http://www.bcc.act.edu.au/2014-Annual-Report/index.html#56-57/z" target="_blank">2014 annual report</a>, "No other directors received any compensation during the year" (Note 19) but that can be changed so one technique that would work is to acquire sufficient shares to get a directorship then extract cash via directors fees. Another would be to engage a for profit management company to manage the asset. You also have to generate the cash to extract. The land is worth millions but only if you can sell it. The school is already quite profitable with $1.7 million profit on a revenue of $10.5 million <a href="http://www.bcc.act.edu.au/2014-Annual-Report/index.html#38-39/z" target="_blank">(pg 39) in 2014 </a>but extracting revenue from the school community through fees just doesn't seem reasonable. I pondered over this problem for a while and then found inspiration on the BCE website <a href="http://www.bcc.act.edu.au/Default.aspx?PageID=5872248&Page=2&A=PhotoGallery&PID=30551&Items=12" target="_blank">where they mention</a> (<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3RMBzgiNpwGWFlWUXV3a3dESDA/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank">archive</a>) the next door "<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px;">newly proposed development of the Lyneham Motor Inn which is to incorporate some 300+ apartments in twin 8-storey towers. A separate fight for the College to have as and when this proposal develops." </span>There is a great way to win this fight, liquidate enough of the BCE land to generate a lot of cash, make it look like a new school/community asset has been created and therefore provide a good argument for the required zoning change over the BCE land. Plot ratios will limit the number of units that can be built on the Motor Inn site so expanding the land area allows more units without necessarily building on the particular piece of additional land. A joint facility using BCE land would do it. A pool and spa facility would look good in the school prospectus and would help sell the unit development or perhaps an outdoor entertainment/sport area. Continued access to this land for school purposes can be guaranteed with a memorandum of understanding. Memorandum's of understanding are ideal. The seller gets full value from the land sale because the purchaser promises are unenforceable and the ACT government regards memorandum's of understanding as sufficient for giving it's blessing to development proposals and even land grants.<br />
<br />
Buying shares in BCE is much better than the garage proposal as it is less blatant and can generate more profit, but I'm aware of an even better opportunity. I know of another community group operating on public land that is smaller than the BCE or the Hockey Centre plots but is even better located. It would be ideal for unit development which seems to generate the most profit. The community group organisers are all voluntary, driven by altruism and like most community groups that provide valuable services at less than cost, they suffer from lack of funds and free riders. A few hundred high rise units on their land to fund new facilities for the community group and fund paid staff would really get the group humming. Surely the offer from the property consultants on the next table could be improved on. Free land in the centre of Canberra has got to be better than negative geared apartments on the Gold Coast.<br />
<br />
To capitalise on this opportunity you also need to join the party while it is in full swing. Eventually the government will run out of land to give away and while a lot of the good stuff is already gone, so far, there is still good land remaining. The site I have in mind is prime land for high rise residential development, close to shops and amenities and with water views. Just like <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/arts/television/utopia-rob-sitch-parks-his-brand-of-humour-perfectly/story-fn9d34el-1227508180383">Garden Island, Sydney</a> as depicted in Utopia, it is a developers dream and best of all it is not in my back yard. <br />
<br />
Perhaps I can partner with the guys on the next table. They have the marketing muscle, then we need some partners who know how to win over the politicians. Someone from the Hockey Club, Canberra Services Club or BCE would be good. I'm sure these organisations are driven by altruism so I don't know if they can be persuaded to join an endeavour as mercenary as I have in mind but they have the necessary skills. There is even one person on the boards of both BCE and the Canberra Services Club. We can form a team and party hard!Kenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2473504615610883562.post-89522183308056335742014-02-16T17:58:00.000+11:002014-02-17T08:27:49.662+11:00Making It Easier For Heavy People To Pedal Up HillsIn bicycle racing, big guys win the sprints on the flat because they have more power and the slight increase in rolling resistance from the extra weight doesn't use much power. The climbers however, are always tiny because human power output doesn't increase proportionally with weight even when the extra weight is all muscle. For many non racers that extra weight is mainly fat which is always a hindrance. They may be able stay with their colleagues on the flat but on a hill they'll be dropped. The usual (and best) strategy is to lose the fat but another solution is to use some assist to carry the extra load up the hill. People sometimes spend thousands of dollars to carry just one or two kilos <a href="http://weightweenies.starbike.com/forum/">less bicycle weight</a> up hills and a little assist would be a cheaper alternative.<br />
<br />
The goal is to make hills as easy to climb for heavy people as light people or alternatively to make hills less steep even to the point of requiring the same effort as riding on the flat. Say you weigh 90 kg but your riding colleagues way 70 kg and have expensive bikes that are 3 kg lighter. You want enough extra power to carry 23 kg up the hill so you can keep up with them. If you add enough power to carry your weight plus the bike weight, perhaps 12 kg, equating to 102 kg in the example case, then riding up a hill will feel the same as riding on the flat.<br />
<br />
The extra power to achieve this is supplied by a motor and to know how much power to request from the motor requires knowing the weight of the rider, the weight of the bike, the speed of the bike and the grade of the hill. Three of these parameters are easily determined but the grade is more difficult.<br />
<br />
Barometers can measure height change without calibration using the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypsometric_equation">hypsometric equation</a>. Constant temperature can be assumed to remove the need for a temperature sensor. This increases error but eliminates error due to inaccurate temperature sensing. Air temperature sensing is difficult because the sun can heat the sensor housing. A change in sunlight levels from cloud or sun direction as the bike changes direction can cause the housing to change temperature while external air temperature remains the same.<br />
<br />
Measuring grade requires the change in pressure to measure the height change plus the distance travelled between pressure measurements to get the grade. This is how the <a href="http://www.iforpowell.com/cms/index.php?page=ipbike">IpBike app</a> estimates grade. Normally distance is measured using wheel revolutions but I think it will use GPS distance in the absence of wheel sensors. So a barometer would do the job except that you need a reasonable height change which takes a while on a grade. This would mean no help from the motor at the start of the hill and extra motor power after the hill had already passed.<br />
<br />
Alternatively an accelerometer can measure the grade with a fast response. This overcomes the problems of the barometer but introduces more. An accelerometer will respond to changes in speed as well as grade. Braking will look like descending and reduce assist and accelerating will increase assist which is good because the motor will also compensate for the heavier rider during acceleration. Longitudinal vibration will be sensed and may require a little low pass filtering. A single axis accelerometer has to be aligned with the direction of motion and be perpendicular to gravity but this is not practical to do. The readings from a three axis accelerometer can be rotated to match this alignment:-<br />
<br />
\(\begin{equation}
Acceleration_T = a(A_x- K_a)+b(A_y- K_b)+c(A_z- K_z)
\end{equation}\)
where
\(\begin{equation}
\text{$Acceleration_T$}\\
\end{equation}\) is acceleration in the direction of travel,
\(\begin{equation}
\text{$K_a, K_b$ and $K_z$}\\
\end{equation}\)are accelerations due to gravity in the particular axis direction,
\(\begin{equation}
\text{$A_x, A_y$ and $A_z$}\\
\end{equation}\) are measured accelerations and
\(\begin{equation}
\text{$a, b$ and $c$}\\
\end{equation}\) are the components of a unit vector in the direction of travel in the coordinate system of the accelerometer.
<br />
\(\begin{equation}
\text{$K_a, K_b$ and $K_z$}\\
\end{equation}\)
are calculated as the average of a three axis accelerometer over a long enough period while riding. They can be calculated as a moving average over a period of minutes while travelling faster than 10 km/h but will gradually rotate when climbing a hill to match the grade.<br />
<br />
Lifting the front of the bike while stationary so that it rotates through about 30-45 degrees and sampling the accelerometers will give a second vector. Taking the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross_product" target="_blank">cross product</a> of this and the gravity vector defines an axis about which the bicycle rotates when it climbs a hill. This measurement and calculation should only need to be done once as a slight change in sensor rotation about the bike's vertical axis will produce only a small error in the final result. Taking the cross product of the rotation axis with the gravitational vector gives a third vector normal to the other two and therefore in the direction of travel. The scaler components of this vector after normalising provides the values \(\begin{equation}
\text{$a, b$ and $c$.}\\
\end{equation}\) Using <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newton%27s_laws_of_motion" target="_blank">Newtons second law</a>, the force required to counteract this acceleration along the grade produced by gravity is:-<br />
\(\begin{equation}
F= m \times Acceleration_T
\end{equation}\) where \(\begin{equation}
\text{m}\\
\end{equation}\) is the mass we wish the motor to carry up the hill and the power required to do it is calculated as
\(\begin{equation}
Power = F \times Speed
\end{equation}\) Motor power controlled with this sensor would give immediate help at the start of a grade but in a long hill the power would fade over time.<br />
<br />
The barometer is slow to respond but more accurate over time and the accelerometer that self calibrates is responsive but inaccurate over time. Fusing the two sensor outputs gives the best result and this can be done with a simple <a href="https://sites.google.com/site/mypathtoaquadcopterdrone/project/sensor-fusion-using-an-extended-kalman-filter" target="_blank">complementary filter</a> or <a href="http://robottini.altervista.org/kalman-filter-vs-complementary-filter" target="_blank">kalman filter</a> . The assumption that the measurements are corrupted by stationary white noise produces a stationary kalman filter that is identical in form to the complementary filter according to a <a href="http://scholar.google.com.au/scholar_url?hl=en&q=https://proyectos.ciii.frc.utn.edu.ar/cuadricoptero/export/9ed95816c90cc7d83e32fd2e13b032dc515c0d7a/documentacion/articulo_case_filtro_comp/referencias/A%2520comparison%2520of%2520complementary%2520and%2520kalman%2520filtering.pdf&sa=X&scisig=AAGBfm1HTyYQ6heKIZCsZL8sVEAl3L1xvA&oi=scholarr&ei=J8IAU_e2I8KrkQXD14Bg&ved=0CCsQgAMoADAA" target="_blank">comparison of complementary and kalman filtering</a> for combining measurements of vertical acceleration and barometric vertical velocity to obtain an estimate of vertical velocity.<br />
<br />
In inertial measurement units gyroscopes are often used for sensing rotation but for this case do not add useful grade information.Kenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2473504615610883562.post-90871225146134906292014-02-11T22:22:00.000+11:002014-02-13T17:49:53.973+11:00What Killed Noelene and Yvana Bischoff?<i>Surely not food poisoning.</i><br />
<br />
Following <a href="http://tvnz.co.nz/world-news/australian-mother-and-daughter-die-in-bali-5791424">reports</a> that an Australian woman Noelene Bischoff and her 14 year old daughter Yvana died in Bali after falling ill only hours after checking in to room 7 at the Padang Bai Resort, I was curious.<br />
<br />
Food poisoning was suspected but I've frequently been ill after eating in Bali and couldn't imagine, not just one, but two people dying from food poisoning within seven hours of becoming unwell? So I visited the Padang Bai Resort.<br />
<br />
After first seeming to know nothing of the incident, as she'd been off that day, the lady on reception advised she was unaware which room they had become sick in. When asked specifically for room 7 she advised it was unavailable but we could have room 6. I'd already seen 7 was unoccupied but she said it was booked.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="375" mozallowfullscreen="" msallowfullscreen="" oallowfullscreen="" src="https://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/12337401293/player/0349a1712d" webkitallowfullscreen="" width="500"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
Padang Bai is a small harbour in Bali from which boats leave to neighbouring Lombok and which features diving, snorkeling and a modest coral reef.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="180" mozallowfullscreen="" msallowfullscreen="" oallowfullscreen="" src="https://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/12337714034/player/2aef896a18" webkitallowfullscreen="" width="240"></iframe>
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="180" mozallowfullscreen="" msallowfullscreen="" oallowfullscreen="" src="https://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/12337409313/player/af5943fc74" webkitallowfullscreen="" width="240"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
Traders along the waterfront were confident that nothing bad had occurred in Padang Bai, suggesting the Bischoffs had become ill elsewhere and merely arrived in Padang Bai before the effects became severe. They were also sure the fish served in Padang Bai was healthy as it was caught locally. In <a href="http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/a-careful-analysis-of-the-movements-of-yvanna-and-noelene-bischoff-in-the-days-before-their-deaths-offers-little-clue-to-the-cause/story-fnizu68q-1226799168397">press reports</a> the resort manager Mr Bareato had also said the resort buys fresh fish from local fishermen each day. The enthusiasm of locals to maintain the reputation of their community I've found common in Bali, as well as a tendency to blame Javanese when there is trouble. This attitude minimises robbery and violence, as mostly people are looking out for visitors which may in part, stem from recollections of economic devastation in the wake of the <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/sets/1101100/">bombings</a>. A terrible time for locals, but a period of heavily discounted abundance for visitors that weren't discouraged.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/noelene-and-yvana-bischoff-were-happy-and-smiling-before-bali-deaths/story-fnizu68q-1226795918506">Twelve hours before their deaths</a>, Sunshine Coast mum and daughter Noelene and Yvana Bischoff laughed and joked with waitstaff over a seafood lunch in Ubud and this meal was thought unlikely to have been related to their demise.<br />
<br />
Just metres from room 7 is the Buddha Restaurant which the lady on reception had advised was a separate business to the hotel. It was here they ate dinner around 7 pm. So we tried it for lunch.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="374" mozallowfullscreen="" msallowfullscreen="" oallowfullscreen="" src="https://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/12337343843/player/bd0d1e768e" webkitallowfullscreen="" width="500"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
We asked the waiter about the Bischoffs but he knew nothing about the incident. The <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/did-a-toxic-fish-dinner-kill-australian-mum-and-daughter-noelene-and-yvana-bischoff-in-bali/story-fnii5s3x-1226795447410">press reported</a> the Bischoff's had ordered mahi mahi fish, chicken curry and vegetarian pizza. Just six and a half hours after the meal, Noelene was dead. It was the mahi mahi fish <a href="http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/noelene-and-yvana-bischoffs-family-reject-bali-autopsy/story-fnizu68q-1226796077275">which doctors say</a> is the main suspect.<br />
<br />
A day later another Australian, Heath Barclay, fell ill five hours after eating a ham pizza. <a href="http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/2014/01/16/06/26/aussie-fell-ill-at-restaurant-linked-to-bali-deaths">A Facebook friend</a> mentioned the Bischoffs, "I then check the net and to my horror I had eaten at the same place and had fallen violently ill," Mr Barclay said. "With the police [crime scene] tape in full view of my room at the hotel it was a living hell – I thought I could be next." The 34-year-old plasterer rushed himself to a Denpasar hospital where he was put on an intravenous drip for nine hours. "I was blood tested and told I had severe dehydration and a bacterial infection from food," he said. "I don't really know what would have happened if I didn't go to hospital. If it was the same thing, I can't imagine how terrible it would have been for a 14-year-old girl." However, I can imagine his colleagues on the building site having fun comparing his reaction to that of a 14-year-old girl. Of course it wasn't "the same thing", just the usual unpleasantness of food poisoning combined with the uncertainty of where it originated when he, as I usually have done, ate in more than one place over the previous couple of days. However, it raised suspicions of the pizza and the cleanliness of the kitchen. I glanced in the kitchen and it looked spotless and better equipped than most Bali restaurants. I asked the chef about the Bischoffs but she said she knew nothing and had been rostered off that night. Most staff in Bali work punishing 10 - 12 hour shifts, six days a week so you can be pretty confident of meeting someone that works in a business by turning up at any random time. Padang Bai Resort seems far more generous with leave provisions than most or perhaps we were unlucky. Like Heath Barclay, so far we'd learned nothing more than what had been in the papers.<br />
<br />
At lunch Jarrod, in the foreground, couldn't be persuaded from his perennial favourite, sweet and sour pork. Jenny, on the right ordered the vegetarian pizza, but it was only available after 6 pm. Not desiring chicken curry, she settled on leek and potato soup. I requested the mahi mahi (pictured below).<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="478" mozallowfullscreen="" msallowfullscreen="" oallowfullscreen="" src="https://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/12337161685/player/72de41e55c" webkitallowfullscreen="" width="640"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
Jenny reported the soup tasted as good as it looked.
<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="239" mozallowfullscreen="" msallowfullscreen="" oallowfullscreen="" src="https://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/12450354415/player/c76e151bf5" webkitallowfullscreen="" width="320"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
The mahi mahi was served with chips and a side salad. It too was lovely. Following a pleasant lunch we went snorkelling and sightseeing. There were no ill effects.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="180" mozallowfullscreen="" msallowfullscreen="" oallowfullscreen="" src="https://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/12337667414/player/0e1c4eab6a" webkitallowfullscreen="" width="240"></iframe>
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="179" mozallowfullscreen="" msallowfullscreen="" oallowfullscreen="" src="https://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/12337286623/player/853cff53dc" webkitallowfullscreen="" width="240"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
The sudden and mysterious death of two family members was undoubtedly distressing. ‘‘We want the truth,’’ <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/bali-deaths-queensland-coroner-will-perform-autopsies-on-bischoffs-20140106-30dgy.html#ixzz2sWB02pMH" target="_blank">the family spokesperson said</a>. ‘‘We want to know if it was an accident, or if it wasn't an accident. Were they poisoned, or was it something else? ... "We’re worried that there will be a cover-up if the autopsy is done in Bali." Indonesian authorities <a href="http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/family-needs-answers-to-deaths-of-noelene-and-yvana-bischoff/story-fnizu68q-1226799290547" target="_blank">respected</a> the Bischoff family's request and allowed the bodies to be returned home for autopsy.<br />
<br />
A colleague suggested it was probably medication administered in response to initial symptoms that was the culprit but we'd left Bali, none the wiser. Eventually the <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/bali-deaths-noelene-and-yvana-bischoff-likely-died-of-food-poisoning-20140204-31zod.html#ixzz2sWDvEVYs" target="_blank">preliminary autopsy</a> finding was that they died from a combination of food poisoning and existing medical conditions after they ate fish". It <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/bali-deaths-noelene-and-yvana-bischoff-likely-died-of-food-poisoning-20140204-31zod.html#ixzz2sWDvEVYs" target="_blank">was reported</a> that "Malcolm Bischoff, Noelene's brother, said it appeared they both suffered from scombroid food poisoning that, coupled with their asthma and, in Noelene's case, migraine medication had formed a fatal cocktail." My colleague hadn't got it quite right but it was a prescient observation.<br />
<br />
Malcolm Bischoff <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/bali-deaths-noelene-and-yvana-bischoff-likely-died-of-food-poisoning-20140204-31zod.html#ixzz2sWDvEVYs" target="_blank">stated</a> "I'm sure we wouldn't have got that answer if the autopsies had been held over there [in Bali]" I'm not so sure, but the Indonesian authorities were wise because Malcolm would likely have been sceptical of the same findings from them. Having accepted the results, <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/bali-deaths-noelene-and-yvana-bischoff-likely-died-of-food-poisoning-20140204-31zod.html#ixzz2sWDvEVYs" target="_blank">Malcolm said</a> "scombroid food poisoning can result from eating spoiled fish, meaning the restaurant's preparation could have made no difference". This defence of the restaurant might be helpful as there was only one other patron having lunch when we were there. He hadn't heard of the Bischoffs and, better informed, some of my party would have preferred to eat elsewhere.<br />
<br />
According to the <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/bali-deaths-of-noelene-and-yvana-bischoff-from-scromboid-poisoning-could-have-been-prevented-by-colder-storage-of-fish/story-fnihsrf2-1226818954378" target="_blank">Courier Mail</a>, "scombroid food poisoning occurs when fish like tuna, mackerel, sardines and mahi mahi, is left in temperatures over 5 degrees. After the fish has died, naturally-occurring bacteria can then convert the amino acid histidine into the toxic histamine which can cause severe, allergy-like symptoms." Histamine is <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scombroid_food_poisoning" target="_blank">not destroyed</a> by normal cooking temperatures, so even properly cooked fish can be affected. <br />
<div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
While the autopsy is not yet finalised it seems that the Bischoffs were unlucky. The other people that ate the same fish included the resort manager <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/travel/travel-news/tourist-claims-he-also-fell-ill-at-bali-restaurant-where-noelene-and-yvana-bischoff-ate-before-deaths/story-fni0bieo-1226802716327" target="_blank">Giovanni Bareato</a>. They probably didn't have the complicating factors and scombroid <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/bali-deaths-of-noelene-and-yvana-bischoff-from-scromboid-poisoning-could-have-been-prevented-by-colder-storage-of-fish/story-fnihsrf2-1226818954378" target="_blank">concentration varies</a> in different parts of the flesh. None reported ill effect.<br />
<br />
Despite the confidence of the traders that no one from Padang Bai was involved, it does implicate the fisherman who supplied the fish. Had the fish been refrigerated there would not have been scombroid and I'm surprised I've not seen this angle pursued. I don't know the practises in Padang Bai but I've seen fisherman elsewhere in Indonesia selling their daily catch straight from the boat without ice or refrigeration. Convincing fishermen of a need to change this practice is probably a difficult task but, as with Heath Barclay and the Bali <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/sets/1101100/">bombings</a>, human reaction to tragedy is rarely nuanced, tending to indifference or panic. I'm sure the traders of Padang Bai want to avoid the latter and another scombroid death might provoke it, even though motorbikes is the more common source of <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/how-one-aussie-tourist-dies-every-nine-days-on-paradise-island-of-bali/story-e6freuy9-1226448671303">tragedy</a>.</div>
</div>
Kenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2473504615610883562.post-56208270078344750872014-02-06T01:33:00.001+11:002014-04-19T14:30:11.670+10:00Vernelli Road, NSW - A Secret Public Road<i>Well it would be a secret if not for Google maps suggesting it as a route from Queanbeyan to Araluen. </i><br />
<i><br /></i>
Not far from Canberra in NSW, Australia is an intersection of Gumms road and Vernelli road. Gumms road is a through road but from Vernelli road it is disguised as a gated farm entrance. It is a region where it seems easy to imagine that <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/secluded-hills-hid-a-familys-darkest-secret-20131206-2ywps.html"><span id="goog_1240454376"></span>intergenerational incest<span id="goog_1240454377"></span></a> could remain hidden among the "smaller farms, used increasingly as hobby farms or boltholes for those on the fringes of society".<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="350" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="https://maps.google.com.au/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=vernelli+road+nsw&aq=&sll=-32.010396,135.119128&sspn=108.35516,202.148437&t=h&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=Vernelli+Rd,+New+South+Wales+2622&ll=-35.554993,149.587913&spn=0.01222,0.018239&z=15&iwloc=A&output=embed" width="425"></iframe><br />
<small><a href="https://maps.google.com.au/maps?f=q&source=embed&hl=en&geocode=&q=vernelli+road+nsw&aq=&sll=-32.010396,135.119128&sspn=108.35516,202.148437&t=h&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=Vernelli+Rd,+New+South+Wales+2622&ll=-35.554993,149.587913&spn=0.01222,0.018239&z=15&iwloc=A" style="color: blue; text-align: left;">View Larger Map</a></small>
<br />
<br />
Coming from Gumms road, turning right on Vernelli road takes you to Harold's Cross road but turning left is more interesting, the route of a songline. A <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Songline" target="_blank">songline</a> is a path across the land originating from the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dreamtime" target="_blank">dreamtime</a> known only to insiders, usually <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indigenous_Australians" target="_blank">Indigenous Australians</a> of past generations. To outsiders they are invisible and in my youth I'd found the concept difficult to grasp. What I couldn't see, didn't seem real but nowadays I find it fascinating that what people see is hugely influenced by their frame of reference. Traditional songlines are recorded in song and markings, noticeable only by the group, but modern day songlines, also known only by insiders are recorded in apps like <a href="http://www.strava.com/" target="_blank">Strava</a> and <a href="http://maps.google.com.au/" target="_blank">Google maps</a>. They exist only within a context, can be overlapping and may have no physical indicators.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="252" mozallowfullscreen="" msallowfullscreen="" oallowfullscreen="" src="https://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/12317073855/player/f3d7020747" webkitallowfullscreen="" width="800"></iframe>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>A GPS track along the almost secret 7 km section of Vernelli road. There are two wadable water crossings, numerous gates and some steep sections.</i></div>
<br />
Turning left, the dirt road with many gates services only three houses. Vernelli road becomes impassable to normal vehicles as it approaches the third house, 1.1 km from Gumms road. It is a lovely house, off the grid and secluded by trees just above Bourkes creek. It's as hidden as it is possible for a house to be and was only visible looking backward from the creek. Beyond the creek there is only some wheel ruts and after a while they fade as well. I was here on a bicycle, fortunately mountain style, because Google maps had suggested it as a route from <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queanbeyan" target="_blank">Queanbeyan</a> to <a href="http://www.argylecounty.com.au/towns/araluen.html" target="_blank">Araluen</a>.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowtransparency="true" frameborder="0" height="405" scrolling="no" src="http://www.strava.com/activities/102049951/embed/78660e72bcc0275c3d5195fcc72c9246ce493520" width="590"></iframe>
However, without the GPS tracking live on a map as I rode I wouldn't have believed it was a road or been able to follow it. On the ground there is sometimes no indication which way to travel, though in places there is cuttings and grade smoothing, indicating it has been a substantial road in the past and in others there is a few metres of trees separating the road from surrounding paddocks. These are the physical evidence confirming this <a href="http://goo.gl/BnePUo" target="_blank">songline</a>, recorded in cyberspace.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="375" mozallowfullscreen="" msallowfullscreen="" oallowfullscreen="" src="https://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/12298987766/player/1a384e8cf7" webkitallowfullscreen="" width="500"></iframe>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>A view down Vernelli road which passes between the trees in the centre of the image. It is taken from the location indicated in the GPS track image above. Grass growing in the wheel tracks indicates the absence of regular traffic.</i></div>
<br />
There are two Strava sections labelled Vernelli (Road/Rd) Climb. The most popular <a href="http://www.strava.com/segments/1244785" target="_blank">with 20 riders</a> starts in Gumms road, turns right into Vernelli Road and provides a route to Cooma road that is more substantial but longer than the route I followed which Strava records <a href="http://www.strava.com/segments/6076214" target="_blank">just 3 riders</a> traversing. Without any physical evidence, an observer without Strava would have no idea this songline exists, yet the creator (not me) and a few insiders know I'm the <a href="https://strava.zendesk.com/entries/21299622-Achievement-Awards-Glossary" target="_blank">king of this mountain</a>, probably the only one I'll ever rule. These insiders can form a <a href="http://www.outsideonline.com/fitness/biking/How-Strava-Is-Changing-the-Way-We-Ride.html" target="_blank">whole community</a> that is invisible to non members. Another cyclist is recorded coming this way, travelling from <a href="http://ridewithgps.com/routes/1777499" target="_blank">Wollongong to Melbourne</a> in another instantiation of modern songlines; <a href="http://raceshape.com/heatmap/" target="_blank">cycling routes</a>. Perhaps Vernelli road also follows an Aboriginal songline as; being a short route meandering along ridge lines to the Shoalhaven river, it fits many of <a href="http://www.jimpoulter.com/article13.html" target="_blank">the criteria</a>.<br />
<br />
If you're passing through then Vernelli road, down to Cooma road, is an interesting path which you would never find without becoming an <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insider" target="_blank">insider</a> but for those on their own, don't get injured as it might be weeks before another insider comes by.Kenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2473504615610883562.post-79765668880127220912013-01-03T14:34:00.005+11:002020-02-21T18:51:01.958+11:00A Stealthy Motor To Cycle FastMy suggestion that low power assist is <a href="http://blog.urremote.com/2012/12/what-would-it-take-to-cycle-fast-when.html" target="_blank">all you want</a> received support and scepticism in a <a href="http://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=46371" target="_blank">discussion at Endless Sphere</a>. Having formed the view you don't need much help to cycle fast I'm wondering how it can best be done and wish to select a motor and model some scenarios.<br />
<br />
<h4>
What's Out There?</h4>
The <a href="http://www.electricbike.com/gruber-assist/" target="_blank">Gruber Assist</a>, shown in Figure 1, provides a high cost, low power solution that is visually stealthy enough for <a href="http://cozybeehive.blogspot.com.au/2010/05/did-cancellara-use-illegal-motor-power.html" target="_blank">Fabian Cancellara</a> to be accused of using it during <a href="http://cozybeehive.blogspot.com.au/2010/05/did-cancellara-use-illegal-motor-power.html" target="_blank">Paris Roubaix and the Tour of Flanders</a> but too <a href="http://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=28&t=37785#p587951" target="_blank">noisy</a> for it to be true. Detailed performance information is unavailable but <a href="http://dvice.com/archives/2009/05/gruber-assist-e.php" target="_blank">reviews</a> are generally <a href="http://www.bikeradar.com/gear/category/bikes/electric/product/review-gruber-assist-conversion-kit-42720" target="_blank">enthusiastic</a>. Negatives reported are <a href="http://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=28&t=37785#p587951" target="_blank">50% efficiency</a> and simple on/off control.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4kkFTDCbdoZh7oZS7hhSyZ5ZZUbNRae0OD4s_zyoBVfcVknG8Gehu0_k0ks0AaqUZmKgBR1ueytOlQD_5ogpMahhmAQW4J9sHmD_H3k6Hs-85wj_joXZOPeMLh8WVxwbn-_t5UdCjK60/s1600/gruber-crank.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="417" data-original-width="476" height="280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4kkFTDCbdoZh7oZS7hhSyZ5ZZUbNRae0OD4s_zyoBVfcVknG8Gehu0_k0ks0AaqUZmKgBR1ueytOlQD_5ogpMahhmAQW4J9sHmD_H3k6Hs-85wj_joXZOPeMLh8WVxwbn-_t5UdCjK60/s320/gruber-crank.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12.8px;">Figure 1: The Gruber Assist is a stealthy 100W output motor that resides in the seat tube.</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<a href="http://www.electricbike.com/bosch-cannondale/">Bosch mid drive</a> motors have integrated <a href="http://media.cannondale.com/media/manuals/e-series/DriveUnit_0275007X00_201101.pdf">control and display</a>, use pedal torque sensors and offer several operation modes. They appear close to ideal but I'd prefer a mobile phone as the display device, at <a href="http://www.bosch-ebike.de/media/ebike/dokumente/englisch/Flyer_Bosch_eBike_System_eng_final.pdf">4 kg</a> they are heavier than some alternatives, they need a frame designed to fit, and the control algorithms are not published and can't be altered or integrated into <a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.urremote.bridge&hl=en">cycling tracking</a> applications. Some other mid drive e-bikes are available, like the low cost <a href="http://www.aseakoelectricbike.com.au/" target="_blank">Aseako</a>/<a href="http://zocoelectricbike.com.au/zoco-rossa-electric-bicycle/" target="_blank">Zoco Rossa</a>.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.commuterbooster.com/home" target="_blank">Friction drive</a>, shown in Figure 2, provides an alternative using small, high speed RC motors but the transmission losses driving the tyre are probably high.<br />
<div>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjP1IRMH9CX28mGlYeUH3qT83VqnI52sNZtgPMR14T0noIJKBFE-_LSvzfsc-k-0S-8egj9FObhob9mU3xQMZsBjWkvNCEPSHF56sow0rYaXSkuWtMCTflYAOGOtLDWJwpA5JtzEbo9UM0/s1600/CB_Installed.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjP1IRMH9CX28mGlYeUH3qT83VqnI52sNZtgPMR14T0noIJKBFE-_LSvzfsc-k-0S-8egj9FObhob9mU3xQMZsBjWkvNCEPSHF56sow0rYaXSkuWtMCTflYAOGOtLDWJwpA5JtzEbo9UM0/s1600/CB_Installed.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 2: A lightweight friction drive.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Other alternatives are hub drives which are either direct drive or the lighter less powerful geared motors.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://endless-sphere.com/forums/search.php?author_id=17482&sr=posts" target="_blank">Albert van Dalen</a> has done an investigation of bike motors that focuses on efficiency and compares them on <a href="http://www.avdweb.nl/solar-bike/hub-motor/ebike-hub-motor-selection.html#h0-1-2-hub-motor-weight" target="_blank">weight vs rated power</a>.<br />
<br />
<h4>
Silence Is Beautiful</h4>
<div>
Modern bicycle motors are brushless DC with <a href="http://www.innovatia.com/Design_Center/Electronic_Design_for_Motor_Control_3.htm" target="_blank">six step trapezoidal</a> control explained in <a href="http://youtu.be/oFI7VW6WGR4" target="_blank">this video</a>. <a href="http://www.avdweb.nl/solar-bike/electronics/ku63-motor-controller.html" target="_blank">Controllers</a> are <a href="http://www.bmsbattery.com/controller/188-hall-sensorsensorless-250watts-brushless-hub-motor-controller.html" target="_blank">cheap</a>, from about US$18, but produce motor <a href="http://www.ecnmag.com/articles/2009/10/comparing-motor-control-techniques" target="_blank">torque ripple</a> that is often audible. For little additional expense, controllers could use better algorithms to eliminate noise. Figure 3 shows an example of noise reduction in a direct drive hub motor using sinusoidal control.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/yFecre8dacY?feature=player_embedded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>
<br /></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 3: An example of noise reduction achieved in a direct drive hub motor with sinusoidal control.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
There seems to be a <a href="http://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=22919&start=720#p675072" target="_blank">gap in the market</a> as only trapezoidal controllers are commercially available.<br />
<br />
Torque ripple is avoided by rotating the magnetic flux vector so that it is always perpendicular the magnetic flux vector of the spinning magnets which can be achieved with field oriented control. In contrast to applications like washing machines, torque loads on e-bike motors vary slowly and typical <a href="http://www.control.com/thread/1026172925" target="_blank">e-bike motors</a> produce <a href="http://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=30&t=44910#p654407" target="_blank">sinusoidal back EMF</a>s<sup>1</sup>. Under these <a href="http://e2e.ti.com/support/microcontrollers/tms320c2000_32-bit_real-time_mcus/f/171/t/144810.aspx">circumstances</a> the simpler sinusoidal control generates the same output as field oriented control.<br />
<br />
Field oriented control is often suggested as a means of <a href="http://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=30&t=44910" target="_blank">increasing motor efficiency</a>. In a simulation <a href="http://webfiles.portal.chalmers.se/et/PhD/JohanAstrom.pdf">Johan Astrom</a><sup>2</sup> found only a marginal efficiency improvement with an optimal control scheme over trapezoidal control for a 375 W motor because a non perpendicular magnetic vector mostly acts to store and release energy in different parts of the cycle.<br />
<br />
Geared motors can also produce gear noise. The lightweight <a href="http://www.tongxin.net.cn/en/parameter.htm" target="_blank">Tongxin</a>/<a href="http://www.keyde.com/?do=product&lang=en&event=view&ids=07" target="_blank">Keyde</a> hub motor uses rollers rather than gears which is <a href="http://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=46371&start=30#p679945" target="_blank">reported as effective</a> for motor silencing but may increase gearbox friction losses.<br />
<br />
<h4>
Regulation</h4>
<div>
Previously, unregistered electric bikes in Australia were <a href="http://www.bicycleinfo.nsw.gov.au/downloads/vsi_27_july_2008.pdf">required to</a> "be able to prove that the motor output is not more than 200 watts" but there were no restrictions on how that power could be used. Recently the <a href="http://www.vae-enov.com/fiches_2010/norme_en_15194.pdf">European standard EN 15194:2009</a> was introduced as <a href="http://www.minister.infrastructure.gov.au/ck/releases/2012/may/ck013_2012.aspx">an alternative</a> which allows motors rated up to 250 watts continuous while requiring riders to pedal at speeds above 6 km/h (clause 4.2.4.3.1) to receive assistance and restricting assistance to speeds below 25 km/h. With the usual controllers, a 200 W maximum means much lower power over most of the operating range, so most Australian electric bikes probably exceeded the previous requirement. For those bikes that didn't, the change from "not more than" to "continuous" means motors are potentially a lot more powerful than a 50 W increase would imply. The continuous motor rating power is only loosely related to instantaneous power as shown in figure 4.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYDpLBKa6RCDn3wQU8-UR_EGuBeAELqnjVK34BHlSXzbAvhp_gB-LU6onm2Ebs-kphy6cuhe9ongKUiKcEcapeq2n2jUX3gLRQs70LW092lW6YUvgcjLz0IO_-pi9ua2t1achfIU54DhA/s1600/image001.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYDpLBKa6RCDn3wQU8-UR_EGuBeAELqnjVK34BHlSXzbAvhp_gB-LU6onm2Ebs-kphy6cuhe9ongKUiKcEcapeq2n2jUX3gLRQs70LW092lW6YUvgcjLz0IO_-pi9ua2t1achfIU54DhA/s1600/image001.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 4: The rated power is at the intersection of the rated speed and rated torque lines. The position of the sloping line is determined by the rated voltage. The rated values are nominated rather than physical properties of the motor.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The continuous motor rating is a value assigned by the manufacturer at which the motor is guaranteed not to exceed temperature specifications as defined in IEC <a href="http://www.ruiying-motor.com/userfiles/IEC%2060034-1Rotating%20electrical%20machines%20part1Rating%20and%20performance(3).pdf">60034-1 clause 8.10</a> - Limits of temperature and of temperature rise. As an example, Bosch <a href="http://www.electricbike.com/bosch-cannondale/">mid drive</a> motors, rated at 250 W, have input power measured in figure 5, above 600 W for considerable periods while climbing a 5.5% grade pedalling at speeds around 23 km/h prompting reviewers to <a href="http://www.electricbike.com/interbike-mid-drive/">conclude</a> the "Bosch mid drive feels as zippy and fast as 750-watt hub motor bikes."</div>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<object class="BLOGGER-youtube-video" classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0" data-thumbnail-src="http://2.gvt0.com/vi/JXPyEw6_WE4/0.jpg" height="266" width="320"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/JXPyEw6_WE4&fs=1&source=uds" /><param name="bgcolor" value="#FFFFFF" /><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /><embed width="320" height="266" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/JXPyEw6_WE4&fs=1&source=uds" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true"></embed></object></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 5: Bosch mid drive input power while climbing a 5.5% grade pedalling at speeds around 23 km/h. Output power is probably about 75% of input power. <span style="font-size: small; text-align: start;"> </span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
<a href="http://blog.urremote.com/2012/12/what-would-it-take-to-cycle-fast-when.html">Fast cyclists</a> exceed speeds of 25 km/h, so incapable riders seeking to keep up will need assist at speeds above 25 km/h. <a href="http://www.vae-enov.com/fiches_2010/norme_en_15194.pdf">EN 15194:2009</a> clause 4.2.6.2.2 c) specifies that the maximum speed test should be conducted at 1.25 times the rated speed, therefore some assist can actually be provided up to 31 km/h and still comply. This is above the speeds the average rider can maintain on flat ground but far short of the 41.6 km/h <a href="http://blog.urremote.com/2012/12/what-would-it-take-to-cycle-fast-when.html">Chris Horner</a> maintained over 172 km in the sample ride. Bosch overcome this limitation by also selling a "<a href="http://www.bosch-ebike.de/en/elemente/drive_unit/drive_unit_.html">Drive Unit 45</a>" version which lifts the rated cut off speed to 45 km/h.</div>
<br />
<h4>
Motor Selection</h4>
The <a href="https://www.bmsbattery.com/attachment.php?id_attachment=45" target="_blank">Cute Q-85SX</a>/<a href="http://www.greenbikekit.com/index.php/electric-motor/front-hub-motor/85f.html" target="_blank">GBK-85F</a>, detailed in this <a href="https://www.bmsbattery.com/attachment.php?id_attachment=45" target="_blank">drawing</a> was suggested by <a href="http://endless-sphere.com/forums/search.php?author_id=17482&sr=posts" target="_blank">Albert van Dalen</a>. It is nominally 1.6 kg but was <a href="http://www.avdweb.nl/solar-bike/hub-motor/cute-q-85sx-motor-test.html#h0-1-2-weight" target="_blank">tested</a> as 1.84 kg including electrical cable. He doesn't consider a lighter, nominally 1.2 kg motor in the Cute <a href="https://www.bmsbattery.com/attachment.php?id_attachment=45" target="_blank">drawing</a>, which may not be purchasable, and he chose the Cute over the <a href="http://www.tongxin.net.cn/en/parameter.htm" target="_blank">Tongxin</a>/<a href="http://www.keyde.com/?do=product&lang=en&event=view&ids=07" target="_blank">Keyde</a> which is nominally 200 gm lighter at 1.4 kg as the Cute was more easily acquired<sup>3</sup>. Accepting his motor recommendation, Albert's motor testing data can be used to model e-bike scenarios.<br />
<br />
<h4>
Motor Model</h4>
Albert conducted a carefully documented motor investigation and <a href="http://www.avdweb.nl/solar-bike/hub-motor/cute-q-85sx-motor-test.html#h0-1-8-motor-load-test-with-the-test-bench">dynamometer test</a> from which he constructed a motor <a href="http://www.avdweb.nl/Article_files/Solarbike/Files/Motor%20calculation.xls" target="_blank">model</a>. The dynamometer data, in figure 6, shows evidence of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saturation_(magnetic)" target="_blank">saturation</a> beyond torques of 20 Nm, corresponding to a motor current of 12.9 amps, so a model is only valid for torques <20 Nm. Saturation could be avoided with <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copper_in_energy_efficient_motors#Electrical_conductivity_in_motor_coils">more iron</a>, but space is limited so that would necessitate less copper, increasing electrical resistance and reducing motor efficiency at torques <20 Nm. To avoid rapidly increasing inefficiency and overheating, this motor should be operated at currents less than 12.9 amps, though higher currents are sometimes <a href="http://www.endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=43420&p=651586#p651586">used</a>. This matches the <a href="http://www.bmsbattery.com/controller/188-hall-sensorsensorless-250watts-brushless-hub-motor-controller.html" target="_blank">Ku63 controller</a> which limits current to <a href="http://www.avdweb.nl/solar-bike/electronics/ku63-motor-controller.html#h0-1-2-ku63-motor-controller-facts">12</a> to <a href="http://www.endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=44784&p=667218#p667053">12.85 amps</a>.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbDlI1zFswVO1hMKGnhamrqV1CRFzE_Uhyphenhyphen2OQzllvKet1w1u-lMCVUHw8qy0DfIEDBMlpnBdBcZiiLmWTnQ3TOawgLvA8gLPzDkZwHrZiwy8QEqV8VKX5JM5pf7kcsZ7dx6ZZXtbCEgeU/s1600/CuteMotorSaturation.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbDlI1zFswVO1hMKGnhamrqV1CRFzE_Uhyphenhyphen2OQzllvKet1w1u-lMCVUHw8qy0DfIEDBMlpnBdBcZiiLmWTnQ3TOawgLvA8gLPzDkZwHrZiwy8QEqV8VKX5JM5pf7kcsZ7dx6ZZXtbCEgeU/s400/CuteMotorSaturation.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 6: Dynamometer test data</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Albert <a href="http://www.avdweb.nl/solar-bike/hub-motor/measuring-motor-parameters.html#h0-1-2-motor-winding-resistance-r" target="_blank">measured</a> motor winding resistance as <span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">R </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small; line-height: 16px;"> ≈</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;"> </span><strong style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">0.307 Ω </strong>(stated as <strong style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">mΩ</strong> but intended as <strong style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">Ω</strong><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">)</span><strong style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;"> </strong>but elsewhere he <a href="http://www.avdweb.nl/solar-bike/hub-motor/get-motor-parameters-from-graph.html#h0-1-4-calculate-k-and-r" target="_blank">calculated</a> <span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 23px;">R =<b> 0.77</b> </span><strong style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">Ω</strong><strong style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 23px;"> </strong>which is a substantial difference.<strong style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 23px;"> </strong> He accounts for the difference as gearbox friction and uses the measured value in his <a href="http://www.avdweb.nl/Article_files/Solarbike/Files/Motor%20calculation.xls" target="_blank">model</a>, however the <a href="http://www.micromo.com/motor-calculations.aspx" target="_blank">relationship</a>:- Vo = (I * R) + (ω * Ke) which is expressed in <a href="http://www.avdweb.nl/solar-bike/formulas-for-power-calculations-on-ebikes-and-hub-motors.html" target="_blank">Albert's notation</a> as U = (I * R) + (ω * k) is independent of gearbox friction losses. Rearranging to k = (U - I * R)/ω, the motor constant (k) can then be plotted against rotational speed (ω) of the wheel using the dynamometer <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnRMBzgiNpwGdEtnU2RpcV9vYjhwN3BHR3ZtTWxRZFE">test data</a> as shown in Figure 7.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><script src="//ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/static/modules/gviz/1.0/chart.js" type="text/javascript"> {"dataSourceUrl":"//docs.google.com/spreadsheet/tq?key=0AnRMBzgiNpwGdEtnU2RpcV9vYjhwN3BHR3ZtTWxRZFE&transpose=0&headers=1&merge=COLS&range=D1%3AD128%2CU1%3AU128&gid=0&pub=1","options":{"vAxes":[{"title":"Motor Constant (k)","useFormatFromData":true,"minValue":null,"viewWindow":{"min":null,"max":null},"maxValue":null},{"useFormatFromData":true,"minValue":null,"viewWindow":{"min":null,"max":null},"maxValue":null}],"series":{"0":{"pointSize":2}},"booleanRole":"certainty","animation":{"duration":500},"pointSize":7,"legend":"none","lineWidth":0,"useFirstColumnAsDomain":1,"is3D":false,"hAxis":{"title":"Motor Speed (rpm)","useFormatFromData":true,"minValue":null,"viewWindow":{"min":null,"max":null},"maxValue":null},"tooltip":{},"width":341,"height":108},"state":{},"view":{},"chartType":"ScatterChart"} </script></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 7: Motor constant k versus <span style="font-size: small; text-align: start;">ω</span> with R = 0.307 <strong style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; text-align: start;">Ω</strong>. Slope should be zero.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Adjusting to R = 0.75 so that the slope of a linear estimate of k = 0 gives the <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnRMBzgiNpwGdG1ZLXdFc1FQcXFvcGc4aklSX2tWdXc">result</a> in Figure 8.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><script src="//ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/static/modules/gviz/1.0/chart.js" type="text/javascript"> {"dataSourceUrl":"//docs.google.com/spreadsheet/tq?key=0AnRMBzgiNpwGdG1ZLXdFc1FQcXFvcGc4aklSX2tWdXc&transpose=0&headers=1&merge=COLS&range=D1%3AD128%2CU1%3AU128&gid=0&pub=1","options":{"vAxes":[{"title":"Motor Constant (k)","useFormatFromData":true,"minValue":null,"viewWindow":{"min":null,"max":null},"maxValue":null},{"useFormatFromData":true,"minValue":null,"viewWindow":{"min":null,"max":null},"maxValue":null}],"series":{"0":{"pointSize":2}},"booleanRole":"certainty","animation":{"duration":500},"pointSize":7,"legend":{"position":"none"},"lineWidth":0,"is3D":false,"useFirstColumnAsDomain":1,"hAxis":{"title":"Motor Speed (rpm)","useFormatFromData":true,"minValue":null,"viewWindow":{"min":null,"max":null},"maxValue":null},"tooltip":{},"width":348,"height":108},"state":{},"view":{},"chartType":"ScatterChart"} </script></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 8: Motor constant k versus <span style="font-size: small; text-align: start;">ω</span> with R = 0.754 <strong style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; text-align: start;">Ω</strong>. Mean value of k = 1.55. Note: The y axis scale is different to figure 7. </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The inconsistency of the estimated resistance with the measured resistance is a mystery which would be good to resolve. The estimated resistance is used for the motor model.<br />
<br />
Torque is measured after the gearbox and is reduced by friction losses as shown in figure 9. <br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT_2-fsaMwBnx2QskijFqjJ2KFjRdnD8zNbssn41REeDCt8S-SlaeIaZP4hYMQluapfY2Z9ouMOCRz3m58zmNGZjv5s94OezWAoIIcd732t6UbIh5izwyhW9BUt5-KUu1Ow6QKGdYiRQ0/s1600/ActHydFigure+5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT_2-fsaMwBnx2QskijFqjJ2KFjRdnD8zNbssn41REeDCt8S-SlaeIaZP4hYMQluapfY2Z9ouMOCRz3m58zmNGZjv5s94OezWAoIIcd732t6UbIh5izwyhW9BUt5-KUu1Ow6QKGdYiRQ0/s400/ActHydFigure+5.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 9: Different types of friction losses sum to the total friction loss. Friction at velocities near zero are ignored as very low speed behaviour is not modelled. </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The losses in torque due to viscous and coulomb friction in the gearbox and motor can be modelled as:-<br />
T = (Ts - Cv * ωs - Cc* Ts) * GR<br />
where:-<br />
T = wheel torque (Nm)<br />
Ts = torque before the gearbox (Nm)<br />
ωs = motor speed before gear box (rad/sec)<br />
Cv = viscous friction coefficient<br />
Cc = coulomb friction coefficient<br />
GR = gearbox gear ratio<br />
<br />
Combining with the motor <a href="http://www.avdweb.nl/solar-bike/formulas-for-power-calculations-on-ebikes-and-hub-motors.html#h0-1-7-the-two-linear-relationships-ofnan-pm-motor">equation</a>:-<br />
Ts = ks * i <br />
where ks = motor constant before gear box (Nm/A)<br />
and:-<br />
k = GR * ks<br />
where k = motor constant at the wheel (Nm/A)<br />
and rearranging gives:-<br />
k = (T + Cv * ω) / (i * (1 - Cc))<br />
<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><script src="//ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/static/modules/gviz/1.0/chart.js" type="text/javascript"> {"dataSourceUrl":"//docs.google.com/spreadsheet/tq?key=0AnRMBzgiNpwGdFF1LVI5TzRGTTd1OFpJWEJET1lCNkE&transpose=0&headers=1&merge=COLS&range=D1%3AD128%2CU1%3AU128%2CV1%3AV128&gid=0&pub=1","options":{"vAxes":[{"useFormatFromData":true,"title":"Motor Constant (k)","minValue":null,"viewWindow":{"min":null,"max":null},"maxValue":null},{"useFormatFromData":true,"minValue":null,"viewWindow":{"min":null,"max":null},"maxValue":null}],"series":{"0":{"pointSize":2},"1":{"pointSize":2}},"booleanRole":"certainty","animation":{"duration":500},"pointSize":7,"legend":{"position":"right"},"lineWidth":0,"useFirstColumnAsDomain":1,"is3D":false,"hAxis":{"useFormatFromData":true,"title":"Motor Speed (rpm)","minValue":null,"viewWindow":{"min":null,"max":null},"maxValue":null},"tooltip":{},"width":536,"height":238},"state":{},"view":{},"chartType":"ScatterChart"} </script></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 10: Motor constant k versus motor speed <span style="font-size: small; text-align: start;">ω</span> with R = 0.754 <strong style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; text-align: start;">Ω</strong>. Mean value of k = 1.55.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Values for Cv and Cc can be found numerically to best match k to the previously determined value while minimising the slope of a linear estimate of k as shown in figure 10.<br />
<a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnRMBzgiNpwGdFF1LVI5TzRGTTd1OFpJWEJET1lCNkE">Resulting in</a>:-<br />
Cv = 0.033<br />
Cc = 0 which means Cc can be ignored in the motor model.<br />
<br />
The patterns evident in figure 10 suggest the <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnRMBzgiNpwGdFF1LVI5TzRGTTd1OFpJWEJET1lCNkE">model</a> is not fully representative of the motors behaviour but the resultant errors are acceptable and being determined from large numbers of independent measurements should be considerably less than the <a href="http://www.avdweb.nl/solar-bike/hub-motor/motor-test-bench.html#h0-1-6-test-bench-accuracy">estimated 5% error</a> for individual measurements.<br />
<br />
The parameters R = 0.754, k = 1.55 and Cv = 0.033 can be used to construct the motor model which can then be combined with the previous <a href="http://blog.urremote.com/2012/12/what-would-it-take-to-cycle-fast-when.html">bike model</a> and used for simulations of electric bike scenarios in a future post.<br />
<br />
<h4>
References</h4>
<ol>
<li>Renesas <a href="http://www.endless-sphere.com/forums/download/file.php?id=94710" target="_blank">Application Note</a>: 180 Degree Sinusoidal Motor Control Based on this document; pg 3; " As many brushless motors have sinusoidal BEMF ..., it is possible to match these motors with a sinusoidal driving voltage."</li>
<li><a href="http://webfiles.portal.chalmers.se/et/PhD/JohanAstrom.pdf">Johan Astrom</a>; Investigation of Issues Related to Electrical Efficiency Improvements of Pump and Fan Drives in Buildings; PhD Thesis; Department of Energy and Environment, Chalmers University Of Technology, G¨oteborg, Sweden 2011; Figure 6.23 pg 97; The graph shows marginal improvement, about 3% maximum in part of the efficiency/load curve with an optimal control scheme over standard BLDC motor control for a 375W motor. </li>
<li>Personal correspondence.</li>
</ol>
</div>
Kenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2473504615610883562.post-6936294124618669072012-12-16T23:31:00.001+11:002012-12-25T17:22:01.401+11:00What Would It Take To Cycle Fast When You Can't?Working with <a href="http://blog.urremote.com/2012/02/adventures-tracking-bicycle-racing-why.html" target="_blank">pro cyclists</a> has inspired me to cycle more. However, I'd like it to be easier when I'm weary or climbing a hill and I'd like to keep up with the guy in front. Less body weight and increased aerobic fitness would help but no amount of training could get me up with the young guys. I don't want a motorbike but some stealthy assistance would be nice.<br />
<br />
I've trialled electric bikes from <a href="http://switchedoncycles.com.au/" target="_blank">Switched On Cycles</a> for a couple of weeks and the experience is good but not ideal.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/5150192679/" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" title="Electric Bike BLDC Hub Motor by ken2004, on Flickr"><img alt="Electric Bike BLDC Hub Motor" height="240" src="http://farm2.staticflickr.com/1197/5150192679_440c2ea1b8_n.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Figure 1 - A bike trialled with a rear hub motor. A front wheel drive bicycle was also trialled that had a <a href="http://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=43106" target="_blank">Bafang</a>, nominally 250 watt motor powered from a 36 volt battery.</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The bikes work well for a commuter seeking to journey with minimal effort but are non optimal for my ambitions. The motor was quiet but audible, I'd like quieter if possible. I tried using the throttle modestly but its hard to sense the level of assist and power at these levels is as addictive as heroin. A little bit feels good so you want more and taking it away causes pain. On the flat, the motor can get the bike along at a reasonable speed without pedalling so the temptation to slack is as hard to resist as a good snack. Exerting the willpower to ride hard causes the power to fade as the speed increases so that I still can't catch the guy in front. Pedalling up a modest hill though is much easier and climbing <a href="http://app.strava.com/segments/624448" target="_blank">Black Mountain</a> at average grades of 9% I can pass the young guys. Surprisingly though, I have to pedal hard and at the top I notice the motor is sizzling.<br />
<br />
I want a bike as close to a normal road bike as possible, that is silent, has a motor battery combination that is as light and unobtrusive as possible and doesn't run out of puff until I complete the ride. It's also apparent that whatever well planned strategies I might have for power management I behave like a junkie. My addiction, once I'm gasping for breath and the heart is pounding will cause me to abandon good intentions and seek immediate relief if all it requires is to twist the throttle.<br />
<br />
<h2>
Estimating Power Needs</h2>
Using a <a href="http://www.recumbents.com/wisil/MartinDocs/Validation%20of%20a%20mathematical%20model%20for%20road%20cycling.pdf" target="_blank">standard</a> bicycle power <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnRMBzgiNpwGdDVwOFhiT2tyMlFKWDFaMFhyczhVQVE" target="_blank">model</a> for a flat road and with my <a href="http://www.cyclingpowerlab.com/PowerComponents.aspx" target="_blank">parameters</a> estimated as:-<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 276px;"><tbody>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td class="xl63" colspan="3" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; mso-ignore: colspan;">Rolling
resistance Cr</td>
<td class="xl64"></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.004</td>
<td class="xl64"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td class="xl63" colspan="3" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; mso-ignore: colspan;">Air
density ρ </td>
<td class="xl64"></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">1.225</td>
<td class="xl67">[kg/m<span class="font5">²</span><span class="font0">]</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td class="xl63" colspan="4" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; mso-ignore: colspan;">Drag
coefficient </td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">1</td>
<td class="xl64"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td class="xl63" colspan="3" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; mso-ignore: colspan;">Reference
area</td>
<td class="xl64"></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.5</td><td class="xl64">[m<span class="font5">²</span><span class="font0">]</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td class="xl63" colspan="3" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; mso-ignore: colspan;">Transmission
eff.</td>
<td class="xl64"></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">97</td>
<td class="xl64">[%]</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
gives me the result in Figure 2.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><script src="//ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/static/modules/gviz/1.0/chart.js" type="text/javascript"> {"dataSourceUrl":"//docs.google.com/spreadsheet/tq?key=0AnRMBzgiNpwGdDVwOFhiT2tyMlFKWDFaMFhyczhVQVE&transpose=0&headers=1&merge=COLS&range=A11%3AA46%2CC11%3AC46%2CE11%3AE46%2CF11%3AF46&gid=0&pub=1","options":{"vAxes":[{"title":"Watt","useFormatFromData":true,"minValue":null,"viewWindow":{"min":null,"max":null},"maxValue":null},{"useFormatFromData":true,"minValue":null,"viewWindow":{"min":null,"max":null},"maxValue":null}],"title":"Power vs Bike Speed","curveType":"","booleanRole":"certainty","animation":{"duration":500},"legend":{"position":"right"},"lineWidth":2,"is3D":false,"useFirstColumnAsDomain":true,"hAxis":{"title":"km/h","useFormatFromData":true,"minValue":null,"viewWindow":{"min":null,"max":null},"maxValue":null},"tooltip":{},"width":341,"height":214},"state":{},"view":{},"chartType":"LineChart"} </script></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Figure 2 - My power vs speed model for a flat road and a windless day.</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
Above 15 km/h it can be seen most power (Pdrag) is consumed pushing air out of the way and air drag increases with velocity cubed so that it quickly becomes dominant. A person weighing 82 kg produces about 95 watts to walk at a brisk 4.8 km/h and 57 watts at a more leisurely 3.2 km/h, according to table 1 of "<a href="http://www.idlex.freeserve.co.uk/idle/evolution/human/early/walking.html" target="_blank">The Energy Cost of Walking</a>" after applying the suggested thermal efficiency of 30%. From Figure 2 this will get a bike along at 18 km/h on level ground.<br />
<br />
From Table 1 I can average 24 km/h on a good day over a <a href="http://www.strava.com/segments/the-east-end-1536511" target="_blank">fairly flat 5.2 km section</a> of a 36 km ride around <a href="http://www.strava.com/runs/32594459#548184602" target="_blank">Lake Burley Griffin</a> which, from Figure 2 equates to about 120 watts. The estimate of reference area and drag coefficient is crude so it is probably +/- 15 watts of the true value but its close enough for some comparisons.<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; text-align: center; width: 233px;">
<colgroup><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 3510; mso-width-source: userset; width: 72pt;" width="96"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2669; mso-width-source: userset; width: 55pt;" width="73"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="41" style="height: 30.75pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="41" style="height: 30.75pt; width: 48pt;" width="64"><div>
Rank</div>
</td>
<td class="xl66" style="width: 72pt;" width="96">Date</td>
<td class="xl66" style="width: 55pt;" width="73">Speed (km/h)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="25" style="height: 18.75pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td class="xl67" height="25" style="height: 18.75pt; width: 48pt;" width="64">1</td>
<td><span style="color: black;">Nov 25, 2012</span></td>
<td class="xl68" style="width: 55pt;" width="73">25.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="25" style="background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; height: 18.75pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td class="xl67" height="25" style="height: 18.75pt; width: 48pt;" width="64">2</td>
<td><span style="color: black;">Dec 2, 2012</span></td>
<td class="xl68" style="width: 55pt;" width="73">24.8</td>
</tr>
<tr height="25" style="height: 18.75pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td class="xl67" height="25" style="height: 18.75pt; width: 48pt;" width="64">3</td>
<td><span style="color: black;">Nov 29, 2012</span></td>
<td class="xl68" style="width: 55pt;" width="73">23.9</td>
</tr>
<tr height="25" style="background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; height: 18.75pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td class="xl67" height="25" style="height: 18.75pt; width: 48pt;" width="64">4</td>
<td><span style="color: black;">Dec 16, 2012</span></td>
<td class="xl68" style="width: 55pt;" width="73">23.8</td>
</tr>
<tr height="25" style="height: 18.75pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td class="xl67" height="25" style="height: 18.75pt; width: 48pt;" width="64">5</td>
<td><span style="color: black;">Nov 18, 2012</span></td>
<td class="xl68" style="width: 55pt;" width="73">23.5</td>
</tr>
<tr height="25" style="background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; height: 18.75pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td class="xl67" height="25" style="height: 18.75pt; width: 48pt;" width="64">6</td>
<td><span style="color: black;">Nov 24, 2012</span></td>
<td class="xl68" style="width: 55pt;" width="73">23.2</td>
</tr>
<tr height="25" style="height: 18.75pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td class="xl67" height="25" style="height: 18.75pt; width: 48pt;" width="64">7</td>
<td><span style="color: black;">Nov 30, 2012</span></td>
<td class="xl68" style="width: 55pt;" width="73">23</td>
</tr>
<tr height="25" style="background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; height: 18.75pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td class="xl67" height="25" style="height: 18.75pt; width: 48pt;" width="64">8</td>
<td><span style="color: black;">Dec 3, 2012</span></td>
<td class="xl68" style="width: 55pt;" width="73">22.9</td>
</tr>
<tr height="25" style="height: 18.75pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td class="xl67" height="25" style="height: 18.75pt; width: 48pt;" width="64">9</td>
<td><span style="color: black;">Nov 26, 2012</span></td>
<td class="xl68" style="width: 55pt;" width="73">22.3</td>
</tr>
<tr height="25" style="background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; height: 18.75pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td class="xl67" height="25" style="height: 18.75pt; width: 48pt;" width="64">10</td>
<td><span style="color: black;">Nov 23, 2012</span></td>
<td class="xl68" style="width: 55pt;" width="73">22.3</td>
</tr>
<tr height="25" style="height: 18.75pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td class="xl67" height="25" style="height: 18.75pt; width: 48pt;" width="64">11</td>
<td><span style="color: black;">Nov 14, 2012</span></td>
<td class="xl68" style="width: 55pt;" width="73">21.8</td>
</tr>
<tr height="25" style="background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; height: 18.75pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td class="xl67" height="25" style="height: 18.75pt; width: 48pt;" width="64">12</td>
<td><span style="color: black;">Nov 13, 2012</span></td>
<td class="xl68" style="width: 55pt;" width="73">19.6</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<i>Table 1 - Speeds over the same fairly flat section. </i><br />
<i>The fastest rides might have benefited from a favourable breeze.</i><br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
With a 500 watt motor the bike could get to 41 km/h but adding in my best average effort, would get a barely noticeable 3 km/h more. I doubt I could raise the motivation to do it. So at 500 watts I would already be riding a motorbike, albeit a dissatisfying one. It requires something like the <a href="http://www.stealthelectricbikes.com.au/bomber.html" target="_blank">Stealth Bomber</a> at 4.5 kW to satisfy the power craving and by then the pedals are just for decoration. As for our reaction to artificial humans, it seems the level of satisfaction from extra power suffers an <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncanny_valley#Hypothesis" target="_blank">uncanny valley</a>.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Chris Horner's 172 km ride in stage 4 of the 2011 Tour De France has been <a href="http://www.srm.de/index.php/es/srm-blog/tour-de-france/644-tdf-2011-3-etappen-analyse-srm-daten-horner-soerensen-roy" target="_blank">published</a> and <a href="http://www.sportsscientists.com/2011/07/tour-de-france-stage-4-power-output.html" target="_blank">analysed</a>.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjV8umN5Cw7ee7IvG-Wt7xmiZw2TX-LcVqj8uAG7SBLOTGxClxScbLnACHALfS5wAP-kC6h7go3JWly0nGH0xRgtux87mfHm5rEZGT3930Z3QlYg21HLlgwxC9XLWhN9d9t9cmBbflsdf4/s1600/Horner+on+Stage+4.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjV8umN5Cw7ee7IvG-Wt7xmiZw2TX-LcVqj8uAG7SBLOTGxClxScbLnACHALfS5wAP-kC6h7go3JWly0nGH0xRgtux87mfHm5rEZGT3930Z3QlYg21HLlgwxC9XLWhN9d9t9cmBbflsdf4/s400/Horner+on+Stage+4.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Figure 3 - Chris Horner's ride data from stage 4 of the 2011 Tour de France</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2473504615610883562" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
He averaged 215 watts for the whole stage, so a mere 95 watts of assist could put me in the peloton with Chris. For the final 25 km he managed 318 watts so I'd need 200 watts of assist to stick with him there but its still not much. He also managed 502 watts for 2 minutes and peaked at 710 watts. I could up the power a bit for 2 minutes too but I'd need some significant extra assist to match Chris and a 10 second sprint finish, which Chris didn't do in stage 4, would crush me. Chris also used his power more efficiently than the model for me predicts, averaging 41.6 km/h. He does this by riding most of the race on the wheel of other riders to reduce air drag and may (or may not) have had a tailwind. He also has a small cross sectional area maintained by a good pose and the small volume needed for his weight of just 64 kg, including the bike. Low weight helps hugely on the hills as well.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
I'm not aiming to match Chris in all circumstances but an extra 100 - 150 watts peaking at 250 - 350 watts of silent, light weight electric power, strategically provided by an algorithm I can't abuse would put me in the ball park. Much more than that would put me well ahead of the Tour de France field but leave me dissatisfied in the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncanny_valley#Hypothesis" target="_blank">uncanny valley</a> on a gutless motorbike.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br />
<h3>
Update</h3>
I sought feedback on this article at Endless-Sphere and there was a substantial <a href="http://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=46371" target="_blank">debate</a>, which I've summarised here.<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px;"> NeilP spoke for many:-</span><br style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><blockquote style="background-color: #ebeadd; background-image: url(http://endless-sphere.com/forums/styles/prosilver/theme/images/quote.gif); background-position: 6px 8px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border: 1px solid rgb(219, 219, 206); color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 0.95em; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0.5em 1px 0px 25px; overflow: hidden; padding: 5px;">
<div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
<cite style="display: block; font-size: 0.9em; font-style: normal; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px;">NeilP wrote:</cite><blockquote style="background-color: #efeed9; background-image: url(http://endless-sphere.com/forums/styles/prosilver/theme/images/quote.gif); background-position: 6px 8px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border: 1px solid rgb(219, 219, 206); font-size: 1em; margin: 0.5em 1px 0px 15px; overflow: hidden; padding: 5px;">
<div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
<cite style="display: block; font-size: 0.9em; font-style: normal; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px;">Ken Taylor wrote:</cite>Do experienced ebike riders always get more satisfaction from more power?</div>
</blockquote>
<br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><img alt=":P" src="http://endless-sphere.com/forums/images/smilies/icon_razz.gif" style="border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" title="Razz" /> <span style="font-size: 19px; line-height: 22px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">YES YES YES YES YES!!!</span> <img alt=":D" src="http://endless-sphere.com/forums/images/smilies/icon_biggrin.gif" style="border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" title="Very Happy" /></div>
</blockquote>
<br style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><span style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px;">and some like:-</span><br style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><blockquote style="background-color: #ebeadd; background-image: url(http://endless-sphere.com/forums/styles/prosilver/theme/images/quote.gif); background-position: 6px 8px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border: 1px solid rgb(219, 219, 206); color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 0.95em; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0.5em 1px 0px 25px; overflow: hidden; padding: 5px;">
<div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
<cite style="display: block; font-size: 0.9em; font-style: normal; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px;">maydaverave wrote:</cite>I have a low power 1000 watt bike. Its a great commuter for my small town and as time goes by I find myself going slower on it.</div>
</blockquote>
<br style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><span style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px;">had a different definition of low power than I'd intended.</span><br style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><br style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><span style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px;">Kraeuterbutter at </span><a class="postlink-local" href="http://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=28&t=37785#p587951" style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #105289; direction: ltr; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: initial; unicode-bidi: embed;">viewtopic.php?f=28&t=37785#p587951</a><span style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px;"> is somewhat sceptical of the power requirements of Endless Sphere aficionados. </span><br style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><br style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><span style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px;">However, there was some with plenty of experience of high power bikes who saw merit in low power bikes which I'd define as not more than 2-3 times more power than pedalling. For example:-</span><br style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><br style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><blockquote style="background-color: #ebeadd; background-image: url(http://endless-sphere.com/forums/styles/prosilver/theme/images/quote.gif); background-position: 6px 8px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border: 1px solid rgb(219, 219, 206); color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 0.95em; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0.5em 1px 0px 25px; overflow: hidden; padding: 5px;">
<div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
<cite style="display: block; font-size: 0.9em; font-style: normal; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px;">chvidgov.bc.ca wrote:</cite>I've experienced this when I recently put a "Cute" motor on a nice light aluminum framed roadbike.... I've been very happy with the very bikelike experience</div>
</blockquote>
<br style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><br style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><blockquote style="background-color: #ebeadd; background-image: url(http://endless-sphere.com/forums/styles/prosilver/theme/images/quote.gif); background-position: 6px 8px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border: 1px solid rgb(219, 219, 206); color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 0.95em; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0.5em 1px 0px 25px; overflow: hidden; padding: 5px;">
<div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
<cite style="display: block; font-size: 0.9em; font-style: normal; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px;">Jeremy Harris wrote:</cite>I started out with a fair bit of power, but find that the ebike I like best, and ride most, is the light one with the low power motor. The reasons aren't that straightforward, I think. </div>
</blockquote>
<br style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><br style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><blockquote style="background-color: #ebeadd; background-image: url(http://endless-sphere.com/forums/styles/prosilver/theme/images/quote.gif); background-position: 6px 8px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border: 1px solid rgb(219, 219, 206); color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 0.95em; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0.5em 1px 0px 25px; overflow: hidden; padding: 5px;">
<div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
<cite style="display: block; font-size: 0.9em; font-style: normal; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px;">melodious wrote:</cite>....That article does have merit. A bike w/motor takes the physicality of the experience away. I'm really hesitant to taint my last true bike into a motorized vehicle. <img alt=":|" src="http://endless-sphere.com/forums/images/smilies/icon_neutral.gif" style="border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" title="Neutral" /></div>
</blockquote>
<br style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><br style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><span style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px;">Some commented on the psychology of power:- </span><br style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><br style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><blockquote style="background-color: #ebeadd; background-image: url(http://endless-sphere.com/forums/styles/prosilver/theme/images/quote.gif); background-position: 6px 8px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border: 1px solid rgb(219, 219, 206); color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 0.95em; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0.5em 1px 0px 25px; overflow: hidden; padding: 5px;">
<div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
<cite style="display: block; font-size: 0.9em; font-style: normal; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px;">dogman wrote:</cite>A great deal depends on the goals of your ride. As goals change, the mental attitude changes.</div>
</blockquote>
<br style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><br style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><span style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px;">rocwandrer having never ridden an e-bike felt unqualified to add to the discussion but pointed out that:-</span><br style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><br style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><blockquote style="background-color: #ebeadd; background-image: url(http://endless-sphere.com/forums/styles/prosilver/theme/images/quote.gif); background-position: 6px 8px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border: 1px solid rgb(219, 219, 206); color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 0.95em; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0.5em 1px 0px 25px; overflow: hidden; padding: 5px;">
<div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
<cite style="display: block; font-size: 0.9em; font-style: normal; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px;">rocwandrer wrote:</cite>The vast majority of my riding time is purely recreational, with the destination being the departure point.</div>
</blockquote>
<br style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><br style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><span style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px;">which is probably pretty common and my favourite version of cycling. After presenting the reasons he claims:-</span><br style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><br style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><blockquote style="background-color: #ebeadd; background-image: url(http://endless-sphere.com/forums/styles/prosilver/theme/images/quote.gif); background-position: 6px 8px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border: 1px solid rgb(219, 219, 206); color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 0.95em; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0.5em 1px 0px 25px; overflow: hidden; padding: 5px;">
<div style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
<cite style="display: block; font-size: 0.9em; font-style: normal; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px;">rocwandrer wrote:</cite>If the benefit from adding pedal power does not FEEL proportionate to the effort, it is much harder to put in that effort....That all matches with Ken's hypothesis that if there is enough power on tap with the electric assist to make the human contribution feel less critical, or to make the return for extra effort feel too small, it is will psychologically difficult to even acknowledge that there is more in reserve in the human power side's controller.</div>
</blockquote>
<br style="background-color: #e1ebf2; color: #333333; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Trebuchet MS', Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.200000762939453px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /></div>
Kenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2473504615610883562.post-59431015004794042352012-11-01T12:39:00.001+11:002012-12-18T14:54:21.669+11:00Innovative Value Transfer Systems For GovernmentThere is potential to improve government transfer payments through innovative payment systems that make it easier to issue funds, spend the benefit and automatically capture the accounting information. Such a system could be used for government transfer payments for a wide variety of purposes.<br />
Advantages include:-<br />
<ul>
<li>Recipients would use a common method of receiving and spending many different payment types.</li>
<li>A recipient would be immediately aware of having received the benefit and the value of the benefit.</li>
<li>A controlled market could be created to capture the advantages of market economies while restricting products and services to the types intended.</li>
<li>The funds associated with the benefit are not spent until the service provider claims from the government.</li>
<li>Transfer payments not consumed by the recipient will automatically evaporate. </li>
</ul>
<h3>
Government Transfer Payments</h3>
<div>
A <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Transfer_payment&oldid=515567696">transfer payment</a> is made without any exchange of goods or services. Examples of transfer payments include welfare (financial aid), social security and government making subsidies for certain businesses. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The <a href="http://taxreview.treasury.gov.au/content/FinalReport.aspx?doc=html/publications/papers/Final_Report_Part_1/chapter_9.htm">Henry Tax Review</a> [<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2473504615610883562#Ref 1">1</a>] considered transfer payments and concluded "A coordinated approach should extend to the consideration of housing assistance, access to aged care and transfers that are tied to expenditure on other goods and services. A coordinated approach would support greater equity between transfer recipients, reduce the inherent disincentives to work created by taxes and transfers and underpin a better client experience of the tax and transfer system." The <a href="http://taxreview.treasury.gov.au/content/FinalReport.aspx?doc=html/publications/papers/Final_Report_Part_1/chapter_9.htm">tax review</a> describes several classes of transfer payments:-
<br />
<ul>
<li>family-related payments </li>
<li>child care, housing assistance</li>
<li>transfers tied to goods and services</li>
<li>aged care</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
Transfer payments are intended to achieve a social purpose. Those tied most narrowly are where "governments also provide other transfers in the form of concessions or payments that are linked to the purchase, or supply, of a particular good or service"[<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2473504615610883562#Ref 1">1</a>] but others including childcare, housing assistance and some aged care services are also intended for quite narrow purposes. Governments currently employ a variety of methods to ensure payments are directed towards the desired purpose.</div>
<div>
<br />
<div>
<h3>
Innovative Value Transfer Systems</h3>
</div>
<div>
Innovative value transfer systems have been slow to develop in the information age and many have failed. "While <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Electronic_money&oldid=518917589">electronic money</a> has been an interesting problem for cryptography .., to date, the use of e-money has been relatively low-scale." Probably the most widely used information age payment system, <a href="https://www.paypal-australia.com.au/">Paypal</a> is grafted on to previously existing card payment networks and provides barely distinguishable services.</div>
<br />
<div>
<h3>
Strategic Review of Innovation in the Payments System - RBA</h3>
<div>
The Australian Reserve Bank has an interest in fostering innovation in Australian payment systems and government transfer payments should be part of that innovation. The recently completed Strategic Review of Innovation in the Payments System had "the objective of identifying areas in which innovation in the Australian payments system could be fostered through more effective cooperation between stakeholders and regulators."[<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2473504615610883562#Ref 2">2</a>]</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
The review sees "the potential to unlock significant future innovation, resulting in ongoing improvements to the efficiency of the payments system.... the Board intends to be more proactive in setting out strategic objectives for the payments system, that is, its expectations for the services that the payments system should be able to offer in the future." </div>
<div>
<div>
The review considers the key attributes of payment systems to be:-</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Timeliness</li>
<li>Accessibility</li>
<li>Ease of use</li>
<li>Ease of integration with other processes</li>
<li>Safety and reliability</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<div>
As government transfer payments represent an important component of the payment system there is an opportunity to influence the direction of innovation in partnership with commercial partners.</div>
</div>
</div>
<br />
<h3>
Fungible Value</h3>
<div>
In standard payment systems value is fungible, meaning it is transferable for any purpose, but many government transfer payments are intended for a particular purpose and it is in this area that innovative payment systems can contribute. An innovative payment system could be used to create a closed economy where a payment can only be made to approved suppliers for intended purposes. Within that closed economy normal trading can occur. This is ideal for government transfers in the form of concessions or payments that are intended for the purchase, or supply, of a particular class of good or service e.g. laptops for school aged children.</div>
<br />
<h3>
An Innovative Example - Bitcoin</h3>
<div>
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin">Bitcoin</a> is a new payment system that is often though of as <a href="http://evoorhees.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/bitcoin-libertarian-introduction.html">libertarian</a> but it has characteristics that could be utilised for government transfer payments. Variants of Bitcoin, known as <a href="https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=67.0">alt-coins</a> could be used for transfer payments or aspects copied in alternative value transfer mechanisms. Most importantly, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin">Bitcoin</a> has been shown to work, is in active use and has a suite of tools and services under development. A level of granularity in transaction data and payment flows down to individual items or services is achievable and separate <a href="https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=67.0">alt-coin</a> currencies can be generated for each class of transfer payment. It is at least useful for exploring what is possible and the desirable characteristics of value transfer systems.</div>
<br />
<h3>
Characteristics Of Bitcoin</h3>
<h4>
Simple To Use</h4>
<div>
The underlying mechanism is invisible to users making it simple to understand and use. It usually requires an internet connection and <a href="http://bitcoin.org/clients.html">payment device</a> which can be a PC application, a web browser app or smart phone app. However, <a href="http://printcoins.com/">paper based</a> transactions are also possible.<br />
<br />
A person is presented with a bill, can use their smart phone camera to read the bill and can authorise the transaction with a key press. In the future it is likely that, using <a href="https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=92055.0;wap2">OpenPay</a>, a consumer will be able to spend bitcoins at any merchant that is able to accept Visa or Mastercard.</div>
<div>
<br />
<h4>
Preserves Privacy</h4>
<div>
Because transactions are broadcast to the entire network, they are inherently public. Privacy is maintained through anonymous account numbers.</div>
</div>
<br />
<h4>
Simple Accounting</h4>
<div>
Transaction data is captured as part of the transaction without requiring additional reporting. If the mapping is known, transactions can be traced from account numbers to individuals. In a government transfer system the government issuer would create that mapping.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Others</h3>
<div>
Bitcoin is an innovative payment system gaining traction but there are many others as described in the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_currency">Electronic Money</a> Wikipedia article and the RBA's Strategic Review[<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2473504615610883562#Ref 2">2</a>] provides a model for real-time retail payment and settlement hubs which includes a list of desirable characteristics.</div>
<br />
<h3>
Current Mechanisms For Transfer Payments</h3>
</div>
<h4>
Direct Payments</h4>
<div>
Most direct payments are not linked to the purchase, or supply, of a particular good or service and work well with current payment systems.</div>
<div>
<br />
<h4>
The BasicsCard</h4>
</div>
<div>
The <a href="http://www.humanservices.gov.au/corporate/publications-and-resources/annual-report/resources/1112/chapter-04/helping-customers-manage-their-money">BasicsCard</a> is a stored value <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EFTPOS">EFTPOS</a> card provided by the <a href="http://www.humanservices.gov.au/">Department of Human Services</a> that allows purchases for authorised items from authorised merchants.
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhp6Ozv1nm97FD-J5Wcf7GXSEiUP8gJsKndxh0wBvGL8kACA_X-_42Fytda1Poi6J8SiCunnR_P8H5qciHS74vhSuGmbgpkV7hCgU3q3trqMIU-SsRiYjwgrqRsC5eymKXojrekMJvPnls/s1600/BasicsCard.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhp6Ozv1nm97FD-J5Wcf7GXSEiUP8gJsKndxh0wBvGL8kACA_X-_42Fytda1Poi6J8SiCunnR_P8H5qciHS74vhSuGmbgpkV7hCgU3q3trqMIU-SsRiYjwgrqRsC5eymKXojrekMJvPnls/s400/BasicsCard.png" width="320" /></a></div>
The merchant enforces the restriction to authorised items and the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EFTPOS">EFTPOS</a> system can't create an audit trail to verify this restriction. It has attracted some <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/today-tonight/money/article/-/14171644/centrelink-new-basics-cardhttps/">controversy</a> but Jenny Macklin, the Minister for Families, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-18951205">advises</a> "We've had it now operating for a few years; we know that it's helpful. The individual stories are very positive." It's proven there is a desire for government transfer payments to be directed to particular areas but the <a href="http://www.humanservices.gov.au/corporate/publications-and-resources/annual-report/resources/1112/chapter-04/helping-customers-manage-their-money">BasicsCard</a> is limited to the options provided by the existing <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EFTPOS">EFTPOS</a> system and is not suitable for many forms of transfer payment, for example <a href="http://ret.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/certificates">Renewable Energy Certificates</a>. Innovative value transfer technologies can extend the <a href="http://www.humanservices.gov.au/corporate/publications-and-resources/annual-report/resources/1112/chapter-04/helping-customers-manage-their-money">BasicsCard</a> concept.</div>
<br />
<h4>
Tax Benefits</h4>
<div>
Some transfer payments are claimed through the tax return. This method is cumbersome, creates a delay between incurring the expense and claiming the benefit and puts a substantial administrative burden on claimants. An example is the <a href="http://www.educationtaxrefund.gov.au/">Schoolkids Bonus</a> formerly known as the Education Tax Refund. It is intended for expenses such as uniforms, books, school excursions, stationery and other costs like music lessons and sports registration fees. Previously, proof of expenditure was required by claimants but to reduce the administrative burden the requirement was removed so that the benefit is only notionally provided for the intended purpose. Innovative value transfer technologies could restore the original concept of directing the payment to the intended purpose and make the benefit available in an attractive form that can be spent rather than received as a refund.</div>
<br />
<h4>
Direct Provision of Goods and Services</h4>
Sometimes governments directly provide goods and services when a superior outcome could be achieved by a transfer payment combined with market mechanisms. An excellent example is the <a href="http://www.futuregov.asia/articles/2009/feb/05/australian-govt-funds-141000-laptops-schools/">laptops for schools</a> program. Some students never got a machine. The machines supplied required tendering and administrative processes that introduced <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/labors-school-laptops-cost-a-packet/story-e6freomx-1226065981922">massive delays</a>.
There was a transfer from parents to government of the burden of ensuring responsible use and the $1,000 per machine supplied by the federal government proved insufficient to cover the machine and program costs so that in <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/technology-old/you-pay-for-free-laptops/story-e6frep1o-1226177767730">extreme cases</a> parents were asked to contribute more per machine than the cost of a similar machine from a retailer. Use of the existing supply chain with an innovative transfer payment solution would have achieved a better result.
<br />
<br />
<h4>
Voucher Systems</h4>
<a href="http://ret.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/certificates">Renewable Energy Certificates</a> (RECs) are a tradeable voucher for encouraging investment in green energy initiatives.
"<a href="http://ret.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/certificates">Eligible renewable energy sources</a> are entitled to create certificates based on the amount of electricity they produce or displace. These certificates can be created in the REC Registry and sold to buyers."
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://ret.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/Images/UserUploadedImages/149/STC_img.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="476" src="http://ret.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/Images/UserUploadedImages/149/STC_img.png" width="574" /></a></div>
These vouchers are quite different to payment systems like the <a href="http://www.humanservices.gov.au/corporate/publications-and-resources/annual-report/resources/1112/chapter-04/helping-customers-manage-their-money">BasicsCard</a> but to an innovative value transfer system RECs would appear as just another value type and be traded in the same way a beneficiary trades their <a href="http://www.futuregov.asia/articles/2009/feb/05/australian-govt-funds-141000-laptops-schools/">laptops for schools</a> benefit. The trading system would automatically perform the function of the <a href="https://www.rec-registry.gov.au/home.shtml">REC registry.</a>
<br />
<br />
<h3>
References</h3>
<a href="" id="Ref 1">1.</a> Australia's Future Tax System Review; <a href="http://taxreview.treasury.gov.au/content/FinalReport.aspx?doc=html/publications/papers/Final_Report_Part_1/chapter_9.htm">Chapter 9: The transfer system</a>; Australian Government; May 2010.<br />
<a href="" id="Ref 2">2.</a> <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/payments-system/reforms/strategic-review-innovation/conclusions/">Strategic Review</a> of Innovation in the Payments System: Conclusions<br />
June 2012; Reserve Bank of AustraliaKenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2473504615610883562.post-87497693913962149862012-08-07T01:42:00.002+10:002013-01-10T11:10:54.260+11:00Climbing Gunung Batur While Avoiding TroubleI'm fond of ascending peaks. In 1980 my first peak outside Australia and first live volcano was Gunung (meaning mountain) Batur, Kintamani, Bali. Unlike nearby Gunung Agung, which is <a href="http://www.urremote.com/social-activities/climbing-gunung-agung">tough</a>, it is a modest peak with a five kilometre ascent that takes two to three hours. That makes it great for a
<a href="http://www.urremote.com/the-team">group</a> looking for some adventure bonding in which everyone can participate. Strenuous enough to be memorable but not too difficult. This easy access is not ideal for the guiding profession so, on Batur, they counter with a hard sell. Locals don't use guides and while foreign visitors often like to be guided, many would prefer to climb on their own. Guideless climbers still need directions, particularly as Batur is usually climbed at night with the aim of being on the summit for the sunrise.<br />
<br />
<h3>
The Route</h3>
There are multiple routes up the cone. The most used originates from a car park and from there proceeds up through the village, ascending the mountain by one route and descending by another. 3.00am to 4.00am is a good starting time to view the dawn from the summit.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" frameborder="0" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/eAlieEFCMDI" width="560"></iframe></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Animation of the most common route up Batur and some attractions along the way.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The guiding office is near the car park and anyone starting from here without a guide will be accosted by the guiding enforcers. Climbers starting from elsewhere may be able to avoid this confrontation.<br />
<br />
If you are climbing at night without a guide you will need a route map as you will cross many paths leading elsewhere and sometimes the correct path is the least obvious.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="350" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="https://maps.google.com.au/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=217254200565511704118.0004c513003cb189aafbc&hl=en&ie=UTF8&t=h&ll=-8.246828,115.389061&spn=0.02973,0.036478&z=14&output=embed" width="425"></iframe>
<small>View <a href="https://maps.google.com.au/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=217254200565511704118.0004c513003cb189aafbc&hl=en&ie=UTF8&t=h&ll=-8.246828,115.389061&spn=0.02973,0.036478&z=14&source=embed" style="color: blue; text-align: left;">Climbing Gunung Batur</a> in a larger map with icon legends and route notes. The second icon is the carpark at the start of the climb and the first is at hotel Volcano III where we commenced</small><span style="text-align: -webkit-auto;">.</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
I recorded the route with <a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.google.android.maps.mytracks&hl=en">My Tracks</a> and it <a href="https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B3RMBzgiNpwGZnFPTVBVczdkUkE">is available</a> as a GPX file for import into your mapping app. Most people walk around the rim but some of our party didn't want to go further after reaching the summit.<br />
<br />
Alternatively, you could follow the torch light of another guided group but that may lead to trouble and is poor form if you have refused guiding services.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Then and Now</h3>
Despite being a modest climb, my first ascent in 1980 seemed quite an adventure. I had no idea Batur was there until I arrived on a trail bike after traversing roads impassable to cars.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8423/7654545960_4489fc4601_b.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8423/7654545960_4489fc4601_b.jpg" width="281" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The road close to Toya Bungkah in 1980 with the village in the background.<br />
<i>Image: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/sets/72157630770473716/with/7654545960/">Around Gunung Batur - in the past</a> set.</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3139/2987209068_f014bf7847_b.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="216" src="http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3139/2987209068_f014bf7847_b.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 13px;">Heading towards Toya Bungkah probably close to Kedisan, the village at the bottom of the descent into the caldera in 1983.<br />
<i>Image: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/galleries/72157630774316164/">Batur - Change From 1967 Until Now</a> gallery.</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7131/7725661922_0e8870b0fe_b.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7131/7725661922_0e8870b0fe_b.jpg" width="240" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The road near Toya Bungkah in 2009, still nothing special, but much improved. Nearby roads are built to a much lower standard and are still frequently impassable.<br />
<i>Image: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/sets/72157630770473716/with/7654545960/">Batur and Trunyan in 2009</a> set.</i> </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
The village was recent. In 1967 it had <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/galleries/72157630774316164/#photo_2075906640">not existed</a> and in 1980 a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warung">warung</a> was the sole commercial establishment.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8423/7654540146_04aa8bc7bb_b.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="245" src="http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8423/7654540146_04aa8bc7bb_b.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 13px;">This warung, typical of the style in Bali at that time, was the only commercial establishment in Toya Bungkah in 1980. I slept in this guys home.<br />
<i>Image: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/sets/72157630770473716/with/7654545960/">Around Gunung Batur - in the past</a> set.</i>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
It was an obviously poor village with the children spending their days tending to cows that aren't kept there any more.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8163/7654538434_6d94872058_b.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="247" src="http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8163/7654538434_6d94872058_b.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">These kids spent their days cutting grass for the cows and didn't attend school. I don't know if all the kids go to school today but there are plenty of people here in their twenties who didn't and weren't taught to read.<br />
<i>Image: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/sets/72157630770473716/with/7654545960/">Around Gunung Batur - in the past</a> set.</i>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Today Toya Bungkah looks reasonably affluent but the surrounding area remains poorer than you will see elsewhere in Bali.
<br />
<br />
Apart from the climb, the principal attraction of Toya Bungkah is the hot springs which the locals use as a communal bath. The public facility was pretty good in 1983 but has been developed and privatised so that there are now several facilities exclusively for tourists, some quite expensive. There is one new facility next to the car park that is free for Toya Bungkah residents and Rp50K for all visitors including Balinese.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3275/2987210834_8d8a61efba_b.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3275/2987210834_8d8a61efba_b.jpg" width="215" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The hot springs were a well constructed public facility in 1983.<br />
<i>Image: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/galleries/72157630774316164/">Batur - Change From 1967 Until Now</a> gallery.</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7243/7238723200_97a9df26bc_b.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="214" src="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7243/7238723200_97a9df26bc_b.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The privatised facility on the site of the previous public facility, US$16 for foreigners and Rp40K for Indonesians. Toya Bungkah residents don't go here.<br />
<i>Image: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/galleries/72157630774316164/">Batur - Change From 1967 Until Now</a> gallery.</i>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3312/3216218371_c6a12f2ffb_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="150" src="http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3312/3216218371_c6a12f2ffb_n.jpg" width="200" /></a><a href="http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3529/3216217197_f01c109cde_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="150" src="http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3529/3216217197_f01c109cde_n.jpg" width="200" /></a></td>
</tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The <a href="http://www.indo.com/hotels/theayu_kintamani/">Ayu</a> hot springs facility, with accommodation and Bali's only <a href="http://www.toyadevasya.com/">camping</a> ground. Upmarket and exclusively for tourists and the wealthy.<br />
<i>Image: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/galleries/72157630774316164/">Batur - Change From 1967 Until Now</a> gallery.</i>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7257/7665495784_cbc52a3913_b.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="180" src="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7257/7665495784_cbc52a3913_b.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">With the climbing team at the facility near the car park. Free for Toya Bungkah residents and Rp50K for everyone else with a welcome drink.<br />
<i>Image: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/sets/72157630796263646/">Climbing Gunung Batur</a> set.</i>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
In 1980, I climbed from around 3.00am to view the sunset from the summit which I've repeated several times since, on most occasions without a camera.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8023/7654539768_ee53013f46_b.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="196" src="http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8023/7654539768_ee53013f46_b.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Ascending Batur in 1980<br />
<i>Image: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/sets/72157630770473716/with/7654545960/">Around Gunung Batur - in the past</a> set.</i>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://farm7.staticflickr.com/6197/6145673111_3528a01fb3_o.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="http://farm7.staticflickr.com/6197/6145673111_3528a01fb3_o.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Batur in 2005<br />
<i>Image: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/sets/72157627666417218/">Gunung Batur Climb</a> set.</i>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8154/7665588748_98839630c3_b.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="180" src="http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8154/7665588748_98839630c3_b.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Near the summit in 2012 with children not much younger than I was on that first climb.<br />
<i>Image: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/sets/72157630796263646/">Climbing Gunung Batur</a> set.</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
There was no warung at the summit in 1980 but there was in 2004.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://farm7.staticflickr.com/6198/6145674691_5d7985de23_o.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="150" src="http://farm7.staticflickr.com/6198/6145674691_5d7985de23_o.jpg" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Climbers resting at the summit warung in 2004.<br />
<i>Image: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/sets/72157627666417218/">Gunung Batur Climb</a> set.</i>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7250/7665529622_fd91c8bc37_b.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="180" src="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7250/7665529622_fd91c8bc37_b.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Our party at the summit warung in 2012.<br />
<i>Image: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/sets/72157630796263646/">Climbing Gunung Batur</a> set.</i>
<br />
<br /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Across the lake is <a href="http://www.indo.com/featured_article/trunyan.html">Trunyan</a>.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8162/7654540502_ba0bcfd0d0_b.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="207" src="http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8162/7654540502_ba0bcfd0d0_b.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">It is a long way to the shore and I found this hollowed out log unstable and scary. Operating the camera while expecting to be in the water at any moment was tricky. You can drive on a rough track to Trunyan now but still need a boat to get the last few hundred metres to the cemetery.<br />
<i>Image: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/sets/72157630770473716/with/7654545960/">Around Gunung Batur - in the past</a> set.</i>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
In 1980 it's bizarre cemetery had seemed exotic, though a bit unsavoury. Most climbers don't go there but lots of tour groups do from the wharf in Kedisan. I went back recently, to see what's changed and it's not a lot. Even in 1980, charging visitors to ogle grandmas remains was an income source for Trunyan.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7257/7654545424_6a3a4d0c6a_b.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="201" src="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7257/7654545424_6a3a4d0c6a_b.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Sky burial at Trunyan cemetery in 1980<br />
<i>Image: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/sets/72157630770473716/with/7654545960/">Around Gunung Batur - in the past</a> set.</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8427/7725031710_e62d6126e6_b.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8427/7725031710_e62d6126e6_b.jpg" width="240" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">It hadn't changed much in 2009<br />
<i>Image: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/sets/72157630770473716/with/7654545960/">Batur and Trunyan in 2009</a> set.</i>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
<h3>
Avoiding Trouble</h3>
It's easiest to pay up. Most climbers are brought directly from Ubud with the 40km drive being traversed in well under an hour when travelled in the early hours of the morning. A guide will be included in the package. You climb, swim and return with only pleasant experiences but are a little divorced from the locals. If you sleep nearby, particularly if you stay a few days, you will get a more grounded experience. This can be confronting as there is poverty and hassling, but you will see a different side of Bali with many people I've spoken to around the caldera claiming never to have been as far as Denpasar.<br />
<br />
For the climb you will be strongly encouraged to hire a guide. It may seem compulsory but it isn't and lots don't. We checked in at the police station in Penelokan before descending into the caldera and checked back out on departure which my local colleague said was the norm though I'd never done this previously or heard of anyone anyone else doing it either. Keen for reassurance from the police, we were also advised we couldn't be forced to hire a guide even when climbing with <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bule">bule</a>.<br />
<br />
<h4>
The Problem Is Widely Known</h4>
<div>
Batur rates as Number 4 on a <a href="http://www.backpackmojo.com/blog/top-5-worst-tourist-rip-offs-1">list</a> of the Top 5 worst tourist rip - offs around Asia which states "Mount Organized-tourist-extortion is a good name for it." The <a href="http://www.en.indonesia.nl/content/view/1018/186/">Jakarta Post</a> reports "Anecdotal evidence says episodes such as these have been occurring around Kintamani and Lake Batur for some time, shaking the foundations of an important economic stream – tourism – for the region." and Trip Advisor documents <a href="http://www.tripadvisor.com/ShowUserReviews-g303952-d676508-r130624862-Mt_Batur-Kintamani_Bangli_Bali.html#REVIEWS">some confrontations</a>. <br />
<br /></div>
<h4>
It's Been That Way For A Long Time</h4>
While I found Toya Bungkah pleasant in 1980 the guy that took me across to Trunyan kept telling me he feared extortion at Trunyan. This is is consistent with a quote from pg 19 of <a href="http://www.uhpress.hawaii.edu/books/reuter-intro.pdf">Custodians of the Sacred Mountain</a>; Thomas A. Reuter; University of Hawai‘i <a href="https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:AwiWCN8kAZUJ:www.uhpress.hawaii.edu/books/reuter-intro.pdf+&hl=en&gl=au&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESjmVKx0b0MWvHhOBbcxJZxXzLbT0sKgw7YHWJqcsdtVF0vgV0_8pIz2NqbodujCO4OGXszBc3aPbvaT63RbubBvp1obUeq6f2Zyak8eKznpBoYA6Sh5nofby_nwGqQNbHlloAYL&sig=AHIEtbT_vhTVhC9qTWB5cBTsx5ODBMDUaA&pli=1">Press</a>; 2002; <i>Travelers’ testimonies warn that local men may extort money from passengers by rocking their shaky boats as they ferry them across the lake. Authors of tourist guide books, who generally propagate romantic visions of smiling Balinese, have propagated the image problem of the hill people by characterizing them as “hostile, scruffy hustlers” (Winterton 1989:157–158) and as a potential “hassle” to those wishing to enjoy the natural beauty of their mountain home (Darling 1990:156).</i><br />
<br />
"Ever tried walking up Mt. Batur alone? Try it and you'll get extorted by machete-wielding locals that demand you pay them $50 to be a guide." reports one climber <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/34142/100-Wonders-of-the-World">from July 2004</a> showing it's not a recent phenomenon.<br />
<br />
<h4>
It's Economically Based</h4>
No one likes extortion (essentially taxation by non government entities), but it's most common in exploitative social systems when governance is weak. Modern China is <a href="http://brontecapital.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/macroeconomics-of-chinese-kleptocracy.html">sometimes described</a> as a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kleptocracy">kleptocracy</a> and under Suharto this was an apt description of Indonesia which weakens government authority. While Indonesia has been rapidly changing, these are strong traditions extending back to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_East_Indies">Dutch rule</a> and they are more obvious in Batur than some other places. Apart from natural beauty, the area has limited resources and a long history of exploitation as discussed in <a href="http://www.uhpress.hawaii.edu/books/reuter-intro.pdf">Custodians of the Sacred Mountain</a>; Thomas A. Reuter; University of Hawai‘i <a href="https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:AwiWCN8kAZUJ:www.uhpress.hawaii.edu/books/reuter-intro.pdf+&hl=en&gl=au&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESjmVKx0b0MWvHhOBbcxJZxXzLbT0sKgw7YHWJqcsdtVF0vgV0_8pIz2NqbodujCO4OGXszBc3aPbvaT63RbubBvp1obUeq6f2Zyak8eKznpBoYA6Sh5nofby_nwGqQNbHlloAYL&sig=AHIEtbT_vhTVhC9qTWB5cBTsx5ODBMDUaA&pli=1">Press</a>; 2002. This leads to distrust of authority and widespread <a href="http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/home/balis-governor-pulls-plug-on-bedugul-geothermal-project/487442">opposition to taking advantage</a> of opportunities like geothermal energy which will impact many but from which only a few elite are likely to benefit. The best assets are privatised by the politically influential and the poor barely get by labouring at agriculture. The only ways to escape hardship are to leave or exploit and with the best assets already taken, only services remain.<br />
<br />
Many tourists will pay sums for half a days guiding that would otherwise require several weeks of agricultural toil to earn. Others stay away. In the absence of strong governance, groups emerge to capture the opportunity and without official authority, ultimately resort to stand over tactics to get their way. This is the environment that has bred the guiding cartel whose members can expect to do well as long as the monopoly can be maintained. One guide told me they have 63 members and work is divided amongst the members with each guide going to the bottom of the list after each job. My informant said they averaged 20 climbers a day. While pricing is variable, they have strong pricing discipline, in my case, only dropping the guiding offer to Rp280,000 after things had become so unpleasant that hiring a guide at any price was unlikely. This can only be possible when they are effective in suppressing competition.<br />
<br />
Batur's climbers are a mere quarter of 1 percent of Bali's <a href="http://www.indo.com/news/good_numbers_bali_indonesia_tourism.html">visitors</a> of 2.8 million in 2011. Guides from elsewhere will usually bring tourists only as far as Kintamani for the view from the caldera rim and will not offer the climbing opportunity. The road into the caldera is tough on their vehicles, so much so that I've known drivers to refuse the descent, and they are not keen to share guiding revenue with their colleagues in Toya Bungkah. While much effort goes into maximising revenue from those that turn up, there is little obvious effort on promoting the climb. Climbing is not everyone's thing but there is surely an opportunity to increase Batur's current visitor numbers. One tourist in a hundred ought to be easy. Working against that is the community inequality, coercion and distrust of government that makes it difficult to achieve more cooperation and investment in shared infrastructure, particularly roads, that would be required to attract large visitor numbers. The guiding association's ambition of Batur being an upmarket experience, is consistent with Governor Pastikas view that Bali <a href="http://www.thebalitimes.com/2012/07/19/pastika-criticises-discount-hotel-rates/">should be an expensive destination</a> but it is incongruous for the opulence of the <a href="http://www.tripadvisor.com.au/Hotel_Review-g1819957-d1815828-Reviews-The_Ayu_Kintamani-Toya_Bungkah_Kintamani_Bangli_Bali.html">Ayu</a> resort to be in stark contrast with the poor roads, poor infrastructure and obvious poverty over the fence.<br />
<br />
With electricity and good mobile phone/internet reception Toya Bungkah is already not that weird "other world" I experienced in 1980 but increased development would mean losing some of the current atmosphere in the same way as Kuta has lost the atmosphere it had in 1980, as visitor numbers increased. Locals would welcome better roads and increased opportunities. Most visitors coming up for the day from Ubud probably wouldn't notice what was lost. While Kuta sadly destroyed much of its natural beauty as it developed a different sort of magic has emerged from the mayhem and the Kintamani region could develop its own different sort of magic and even maintain it's awesome natural assets.<br />
<br />
<h4>
The Positives</h4>
In 1980 when I first visited, Batur was pristine, probably because visitation was infrequent. On intermediate trips it was a free for all, covered in rubbish. Today it is clean, neat and not overbuilt. Someone must be responsible for this improvement and the new hot springs provide a facility rivalling that available to Toya Bungkah residents back in 1980. The guiding cartel at least benefits locals rather than absentee landlords.<br />
<br />
<h3>
What To Do - Specifics</h3>
I've climbed without a guide as have others. The hassles will be at the base of the climb. Once you get part way up you are unlikely to have trouble and drink sellers may offer unofficial guiding services.<br />
<br />
You will need a flash light which can be purchased cheaply, some warm clothing and ideally rain protection.<br />
<br />
If you are self driving/riding avoid vehicle damage by leaving your vehicle at the hotel rather than the car park at the base of the climb. One guy who suffered vehicle damage thought the cost of tyre repairs was still a bargain compared to <a href="http://www.tripadvisor.com/ShowUserReviews-g303952-d676508-r128637454-Mt_Batur-Kintamani_Bangli_Bali.html#CHECK_RATES_CONT">guiding fees</a>. Gentle persuasion will be tried first and be prepared for a forceful discussion and to resist strong demands. Some people have reported violence and though I experience fear arguing with strangers in the dark I don't think it usually gets too violent; or else I've been lucky. You might not get much immediate help in a confrontation but extreme violence seems unlikely and I've not heard of robbery. Confrontation is unpleasant and leaves a bad taste but once on the mountain a nice camaraderie develops and even the guiding fraternity seems not to hold a grudge.<br />
<br />
Be careful looking down the 150 metres into the crater from the precipice near the bat cave (see the map) as at least one tourist <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/03/31/tourist-dies-falling-active-bali-volcano/">fell to their death</a>. I wouldn't want to be having an argument on this unfenced precipice.<br />
<br />
Most of all, enjoy the experience because the view is great after it's earned and there's lots to <a href="http://goo.gl/maps/7m0Mz">do and see</a> along the way.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Further Reading</h3>
<div>
<ol>
<li>Image galleries showing beautiful <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/galleries/72157630772706080/">images of Batur</a>,
beautiful images of the <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/galleries/72157630773552880/">surrounding area</a>, and most interestingly <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/galleries/72157630774316164/">changes from 1967 </a> around Batur including changes in the shape of the cone due to lava emitted from Batur's <a href="http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=0604-01=&volpage=erupt">frequent eruptions</a>.</li>
<li>Image sets showing <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/sets/72157630798636350/">Gunung Batur - in the past</a>, a <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/sets/72157627666417218/">Gunung Batur climb from 2005</a>,
<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/sets/72157630930189124/">Batur and Trunyan in 2009</a> and <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/sets/72157630796263646/">Climbing Gunung Batur</a> recently.</li>
<li>Lots of traveller reviews of Batur and surrounding areas on <a href="http://www.tripadvisor.com/Attraction_Review-g303952-d676508-Reviews-Mt_Batur-Kintamani_Bangli_Bali.html">Trip Advisor</a>.
</li>
<li>Wikitravel <a href="http://wikitravel.org/en/Kintamani#Climbing_Mount_Batur">guide to Kintamani.</a></li>
</ol>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
Kenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2473504615610883562.post-768859081476892332012-05-15T12:39:00.000+10:002012-05-22T17:22:49.065+10:00UCI Bans Race Tracking Until Further NoticeBicycle race tracking has been growing. Data presentation is still in its infancy but it has already been exciting to watch power and heart rate live in major competitions. Watching the Giro d’Italia on Saturday night I looked for some tracking and there wasn't any. Now I know why, the UCI has banned it, advising National Federations in a note issued two days into the Giro. On the TV it was a real buzz to watch someone I'd met,<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fumiyuki_Beppu">Fumiyuku Beppu</a> in the <a href="http://www.greenedgecycling.com/node/517" target="_blank">breakaway</a> for much of the seventh stage. I wondered how the rest of <a href="http://www.greenedgecycling.com/" target="_blank">Green Edge</a> were faring but back in the peloton they were mostly invisible. The commentators said <a href="http://www.greenedgecycling.com/" target="_blank">Green Edge</a> had a rider in the breakaway in Stage 6 as well but it was a wasted effort because they dropped back just as the coverage started.<br />
<br />
<h3>
What The UCI Said</h3>
Julien Carron, UCI Technological Coordinator, said "the UCI thinks that the future of the sport of cycling goes through ...new technologies.. in particular with the localisation of riders during the race and on-board cameras". Is that cool or what, I've previously wondered <a href="http://blog.urremote.com/2012/02/adventures-tracking-bicycle-racing-why.html">"Why Isn't Race Tracking Ubiquitous?"</a> and the note reveals that the UCI thinks it will be too. <br />
<br />
The crux of
Julien's note though, was that "neither cameras nor GPS tracking systems are allowed in any competition" until an expert committee presents its conclusions despite that "Exceptions may have been granted in the past on several occasions". Actually I thought live race tracking was pretty common. SRM in particular, tracks lots of events. It's only transmitting data to external parties that is banned, not tracking per se which Julien clarifies by; "Naturally, this ban does not concern the personal use of GPS systems (from which the information is not transmitted to the media, sport directors, organizers, etc.) which remain tolerated until further notice."<br /> So tracking isn't banned, just live tracking.
<br />
I'm wondering what the context of the note is. Why are they banning race tracking now, its been happening since the 2009 Tour de France? Did it become an issue with tracking the Giro, has there been some other recent development? Why not let race tracking continue in an adhoc way until the expert committee has figured out how to do it better. It was also a surprise to learn the tracking system I deployed in the <a href="http://blog.urremote.com/2012/02/adventures-tracking-bicycle-racing-why.html">Tour Down Under</a> was an exception. I'd assumed that being approved once it would be OK for future events. I wonder how you get to be on the expert committee, does tracking a race previously qualify you?<br />
<br />
<h3>
The Reaction So Far</h3>
I've searched the internet for answers to these weighty questions but come up blank. The disquiet over banning race radios continues, most recently expressed in twitter comments from two prominent sporting directors.<br />
<div class="js-stream-item stream-item stream-item expanding-stream-item open" data-item-id="202168191768735745" data-item-type="tweet" media="true" style="-webkit-background-clip: padding-box; background-attachment: initial; background-clip: padding-box; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.0976563); border-bottom-left-radius: 6px; border-bottom-right-radius: 6px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.0976563); border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.0976563); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; border-style: initial; border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.0976563); border-top-left-radius: 6px; border-top-right-radius: 6px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-width: 1px; color: #333333; font: inherit; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 8px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 8px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; zoom: 1;">
<div class="expansion-container js-expansion-container" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font-size: 14px; font: inherit; height: auto; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; overflow-x: hidden; overflow-y: hidden; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; zoom: 1;">
<div class="tweet original-tweet js-stream-tweet js-actionable-tweet js-hover js-profile-popup-actionable js-original-tweet opened-tweet" data-is-reply-to="" data-item-id="202168191768735745" data-screen-name="JohanBruyneel" data-tweet-id="202168191768735745" data-user-id="17449749" style="border-bottom-color: initial; border-bottom-left-radius: 6px; border-bottom-right-radius: 6px; border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-left-radius: 6px; border-top-right-radius: 6px; border-top-width: 0px; cursor: pointer; font-size: 14px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 51px; padding-bottom: 9px; padding-left: 12px; padding-right: 12px; padding-top: 9px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">
<div class="content" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font-size: 14px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 58px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<div class="stream-item-header" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font-size: 14px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<a class="account-group js-account-group js-action-profile js-user-profile-link" data-user-id="17449749" href="https://twitter.com/#!/JohanBruyneel" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #999999; font-size: 14px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #999999; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font: inherit; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial;"><img alt="JohanBruyneel" class="avatar js-action-profile-avatar" src="https://twimg0-a.akamaihd.net/profile_images/1272883179/9c57b421-80b9-4f87-9bd4-142892c971e4_normal.png" style="border-bottom-left-radius: 5px; border-bottom-right-radius: 5px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-left-radius: 5px; border-top-right-radius: 5px; border-top-width: 0px; font-size: 14px; font: inherit; height: 48px; left: 12px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; position: absolute; top: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 48px;" /></span></span><strong class="fullname js-action-profile-name show-popup-with-id" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #333333; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> JohanBruyneel</strong><span style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #999999; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font: inherit; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial;"> </span></span><span style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #999999; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"></span><span style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #999999; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font: inherit; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial;"> </span></span><span class="username js-action-profile-name" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #999999; direction: ltr; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: baseline;"><s style="color: #cccccc; text-decoration: none;">@</s><b style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">JohanBruyneel</b></span></a> <span class="js-short-timestamp _old-timestamp" data-long-form="true" data-time="1337035627000" style="background-color: white; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #999999; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><a class="tweet-timestamp js-permalink" href="https://twitter.com/#!/JohanBruyneel/status/202168191768735745" style="background-color: white; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #999999; font: inherit; line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" title="8:47 AM - 15 May 12">15 May</a></span><br />
<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="js-tweet-text" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;">
Riders communicating between each other w/ tam tams & smoke signals in radio-prohibited <a class=" twitter-atreply pretty-link" data-screen-name="AmgenTourofCali" href="https://twitter.com/#!/AmgenTourofCali" rel="nofollow" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #2fc2ef; font-size: 14px; font: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><s style="color: #82daf5; text-decoration: none;">@</s><b style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">AmgenTourofCali</b></a>. Professional cycling at its best!</div>
<div class="stream-item-footer" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; overflow-x: hidden; overflow-y: hidden; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<div class="context" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
</div>
<a class="details with-icn js-details" href="https://twitter.com/#" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #999999; float: left; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 2px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="details-icon js-icon-container" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span><b style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #2fc2ef; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Collapse</b></a><br />
<ul class="tweet-actions js-actions" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; list-style-type: none; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; opacity: 1; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li class="action-reply-container" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; display: inline; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a class="with-icn js-action-reply" data-modal="tweet-reply" href="https://twitter.com/#" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #2fc2ef; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" title="Reply"><i class="sm-reply" style="background-color: #2fc2ef; background-image: url(https://twimg0-a.akamaihd.net/a/1337042293/t1/img/twitter_web_sprite_icons.png); background-position: 0px -190px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; display: inline-block; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; height: 13px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 1px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: text-top; width: 12px; zoom: 1;"></i> <b style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: inherit; display: inline; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Reply</b> </a></li>
<li class="action-rt-container" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; display: inline; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a class="with-icn js-toggle-rt" data-modal="tweet-retweet" href="https://twitter.com/#" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #2fc2ef; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><i class="sm-rt" style="background-color: #2fc2ef; background-image: url(https://twimg0-a.akamaihd.net/a/1337042293/t1/img/twitter_web_sprite_icons.png); background-position: -20px -190px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; display: inline-block; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; height: 13px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 1px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: text-top; width: 14px; zoom: 1;"></i> <b style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: inherit; display: inline; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="retweet" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" title="Retweet">Retweet</span></b> </a></li>
<li class="action-fav-container" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; display: inline; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a class="with-icn js-toggle-fav" href="https://twitter.com/#" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #2fc2ef; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><i class="sm-fav" style="background-color: #2fc2ef; background-image: url(https://twimg0-a.akamaihd.net/a/1337042293/t1/img/twitter_web_sprite_icons.png); background-position: -40px -190px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; display: inline-block; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; height: 13px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 1px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: text-top; width: 10px; zoom: 1;"></i> <b style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: inherit; display: inline; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="favorite" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" title="Favorite">Favorite</span></b></a></li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<div class="tweet original-tweet js-stream-tweet js-actionable-tweet js-hover js-profile-popup-actionable js-original-tweet opened-tweet" data-is-reply-to="" data-item-id="201823997871132672" data-screen-name="Vaughters" data-tweet-id="201823997871132672" data-user-id="48744833" style="background-color: white; border-bottom-color: initial; border-bottom-left-radius: 6px; border-bottom-right-radius: 6px; border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-left-radius: 6px; border-top-right-radius: 6px; border-top-width: 0px; cursor: pointer; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 51px; padding-bottom: 9px; padding-left: 12px; padding-right: 12px; padding-top: 9px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">
<div class="content" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 58px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<div class="stream-item-header" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #333333; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<a class="account-group js-account-group js-action-profile js-user-profile-link" data-user-id="48744833" href="https://twitter.com/#!/Vaughters" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #999999; font-size: 14px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #999999; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font: inherit; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial;"><img alt="Jonathan Vaughters" class="avatar js-action-profile-avatar" src="https://twimg0-a.akamaihd.net/profile_images/631196045/jvascot_normal.jpg" style="border-bottom-left-radius: 5px; border-bottom-right-radius: 5px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-left-radius: 5px; border-top-right-radius: 5px; border-top-width: 0px; font-size: 14px; font: inherit; height: 48px; left: 12px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; position: absolute; top: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 48px;" /></span></span><strong class="fullname js-action-profile-name show-popup-with-id" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #333333; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"> Jonathan Vaughters</strong><span style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #999999; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font: inherit; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial;"> </span></span><span style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #999999; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"></span><span style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #999999; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font: inherit; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial;"> </span></span><span class="username js-action-profile-name" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #999999; direction: ltr; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; unicode-bidi: embed; vertical-align: baseline;"><s style="color: #cccccc; text-decoration: none;">@</s><b style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Vaughters</b></span></a> <span class="js-short-timestamp _old-timestamp" data-long-form="true" data-time="1337035714000" style="background-color: #f6f6f6; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #999999; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><a class="tweet-timestamp js-permalink" href="https://twitter.com/#!/ContentTBA/status/202168556874502144" style="background-color: #f6f6f6; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #999999; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" title="8:48 AM - 15 May 12">14 May</a></span><br />
<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="js-tweet-text" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #333333; font: inherit; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;">
Well, end result was good, but the lack of radios makes racing so silly. Heck, don't give me a radio, just let the riders talk to each other</div>
<div class="stream-item-footer" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #333333; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; overflow-x: hidden; overflow-y: hidden; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<div class="context" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
</div>
<a class="details with-icn js-details" href="https://twitter.com/#" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #999999; float: left; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 2px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="details-icon js-icon-container" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></span><b style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #0084b4; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Collapse</b></a><br />
<ul class="tweet-actions js-actions" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; list-style-type: none; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; opacity: 1; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li class="action-reply-container" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; display: inline; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a class="with-icn js-action-reply" data-modal="tweet-reply" href="https://twitter.com/#" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #0084b4; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" title="Reply"><i class="sm-reply" style="background-color: #0084b4; background-image: url(https://twimg0-a.akamaihd.net/a/1336623207/t1/img/twitter_web_sprite_icons.png); background-position: 0px -190px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; display: inline-block; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; height: 13px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 1px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: text-top; width: 12px; zoom: 1;"></i> <b style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: inherit; display: inline; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Reply</b> </a></li>
<li class="action-rt-container" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; display: inline; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a class="with-icn js-toggle-rt" data-modal="tweet-retweet" href="https://twitter.com/#" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #0084b4; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><i class="sm-rt" style="background-color: #0084b4; background-image: url(https://twimg0-a.akamaihd.net/a/1336623207/t1/img/twitter_web_sprite_icons.png); background-position: -20px -190px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; display: inline-block; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; height: 13px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 1px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: text-top; width: 14px; zoom: 1;"></i> <b style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: inherit; display: inline; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="retweet" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" title="Retweet">Retweet</span></b> </a></li>
<li class="action-fav-container" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; display: inline; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a class="with-icn js-toggle-fav" href="https://twitter.com/#" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #0084b4; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 8px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><i class="sm-fav" style="background-color: #0084b4; background-position: -40px -190px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #0084b4; display: inline-block; font: inherit; height: 13px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 1px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: text-top; width: 10px; zoom: 1;"></i><span style="color: #0084b4;"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font: inherit; margin-left: 8px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial;"> </span></span><b style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: inherit; display: inline; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="favorite" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" title="Favorite">Favorite</span></b></a></li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<br />
Race radios were discussed a while ago at <a href="http://inrng.com/2011/03/french-tv-execs-ask-uci-for-the-impossible/">The Inner Ring</a> and <a href="http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/stephen-roche-were-trying-to-upgrade-the-image-of-cycling">Cycling News</a> reports that Stephen Roche, one of several UCI backed representatives on the board of the Professional Cycling Council (CCP) is "trying to upgrade the image of cycling". Roche's main bugbears are team cars helping riders back onto their bikes after toilet breaks or mechanical problems; riders unzipping their jerseys; and the use of team radios. So no mention of race tracking there. The UCI has <a href="http://www.uci.ch/Modules/ENews/ENewsDetails.asp?id=Nzg1MQ&MenuId=MTI2Mjc">declared</a> the approval protocol for frames and forks to be a successful process and are extending the label to cover other bike components, starting with <a href="http://www.bikebiz.com/news/read/uci-s-wheel-plans-news-to-us-says-oz-wheel-maker/012727">wheels</a>. Race tracking equipment is not mentioned but perhaps it will have to be labelled "UCI approved" in future also. I'm sceptical of the value of helmet cam video where there is already motorbike mounted cameras but that part of Julien's note has got some discussion previously, most notably when helmet cams were banned part way through last years <a href="http://www.velocipedesalon.com/forum/f2/uci-bans-use-bike-mounted-cameras-atoc-21606.html">Tour of California</a>. However, I can't find anything on race tracking so into the vacuum I'll inject some thoughts.
<br />
<br />
<h3>
Visualising Tracking Data</h3>
The potential for live tracking is huge. The vast majority of races are without helicopters and cameras on motorbikes. Tracking these races and overlaying the data onto simulated terrain or pre-existing imagery like street view can provide pretty good coverage at very low cost.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='480' height='399' src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/oLGixOSWiOQ?feature=player_embedded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<b>Experiments in techniques for visualising rides with tracking data acquired on a Green Edge training camp </b></div>
<br />
The 2012Women's Tour of New Zealand provided almost no coverage beyond final results so as far as I'm aware the simulation below, built from race tracking data is the only race video of the event.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='480' height='399' src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/5se0LoJMqbs?feature=player_embedded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b style="color: #111111; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px;">Highlights of the 2012 Womens Tour of New Zealand - Stage 3 built with tracking data from 4 riders.</b></div>
<br />
Another approach is to overlay data onto existing video. Using video of Simon Gerran's 2012 Milan San Remo win from <a href="http://youtu.be/g9UpH7OCefM">youtube</a> and tracking data provided through <a href="http://www.srm.de/index.php/de/srm-blog/strasse/710">SRM</a>, graphics are overlayed onto the video by <a href="http://suffervision.appspot.com/">SUFFERvision</a>.<br />
<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" hspace="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" src="http://suffervision.appspot.com/e.html?c=73001" style="height: 401px; width: 640px;" vspace="0"></iframe><br />
<br />
Overlaying data onto video or producing video from tracking data will probably get the most traction in the short term. But data driven simulators can offer more. As an example, imagine the driving simulator below driven by tracking data.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEha24Ht3CueBOqaCLsIetPrfc_APWUczfjtjJma9uvZ8hC8EnQsFpvM_-jjWHvBwCM69tpZcdS0vUOoIN-TmE5xx5q0EijrHjZbMtvt-y2wtjPaO2VXRhXrmgA2QxltMOQd0I-Ulkl3K7E/s1600/GoogleDrivingSimulator.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEha24Ht3CueBOqaCLsIetPrfc_APWUczfjtjJma9uvZ8hC8EnQsFpvM_-jjWHvBwCM69tpZcdS0vUOoIN-TmE5xx5q0EijrHjZbMtvt-y2wtjPaO2VXRhXrmgA2QxltMOQd0I-Ulkl3K7E/s400/GoogleDrivingSimulator.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: center;">
<b style="color: #111111; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px;">Travelling from Australian National University, Canberra to Parliament House using an open source driving simulator. If you have a Google Earth browser plug-in installed <a href="http://earth-api-samples.googlecode.com/svn/trunk/demos/drive-simulator/index.html" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px;">give it a try</a>.</b></div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
With video you are limited to the perspective of the camera but with full simulations you can watch the race from any perspective and I could have kept an eye on the rest of Green Edge in the Giro stage 7.<br />
<br />
Going further, you can take the live race data and project forward in time as well. That would allow you to drive simulations like the popular Pro Cycling Manager with real data and allow viewers to try their hand as a race director during the race. The possibilities are endless.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='480' height='399' src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/4RpkVpGlW7w?feature=player_embedded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>A simulation game where you play the role of the team director could be driven from live data.</b></div>
<br />
<br />
<h3>
How Race Tracking Could Be Improved?</h3>
I expect that a better common understanding would make race tactics more visible and the race more interesting to all. So allowing everyone to see more could be a good strategy.
<br />
<br />
Until now only a few riders in each race have been tracked. This has great novelty value but is not enough to understand a race. Each extra rider that is tracked increases the value of the information from the existing tracked riders by providing context. A rider speeding up or slowing down means little unless you know they are in a breakaway, crossing a gap or dropping back. <br />
<br />
Location data is not controversial. Riders don't usually mind revealing where they are. Therefore the UCI should aim to provide live location data for all riders as soon as possible but if it's compulsory any rider that doesn't want to be tracked can probably find a way to make their tracker fail. Heart rate and power will add interest but it's controversial. Some riders have been happy to supply power and heart rate data, so make it voluntary and see what emerges. Interestingly riders don't necessarily have any say in who sees their power data. All the power meters and most heart rate monitors transmit their data using ANT+ technology which, unlike bluetooth, provides no security. I know of one developer who is building an application to collect heart rate and power data from all nearby riders and as long as the data is not transmitted live I expect Julien's note would allow it's use.<br />
<br />
It is early days. Don't stifle innovation.
<br />
<br />
Separate data delivery and data presentation. I would expect rapid innovation in the presentation layer from multiple players if the data is easily accessible.<br />
<br />
The technical issues surrounding collecting and distributing the data are not trivial. Race tracking data can be expected to get better over time.<br />
<br />
Bicycle racing happens on several scales. Most of the time you want to know which group a rider is in and how far that group is off the pace. You want power and heart rate data summarised over significant periods, perhaps for a climb. There are moments, particularly around finishes, sprints and incidents where very detailed data is required to understand what went on. Transmitting high resolution data continuously is too bandwidth intensive so smarts are required on the bike to decide what needs to be transmitted. All the existing systems are a compromise and transmit the same data regardless of the situation. Mostly more than is useful but in some situations, not enough.<br />
<br />
We've tried trackers in the jersey pocket, which was inconvenient to the rider and under the seat which is not the best place for a GPS signal but works OK. I suspect the future is to replace the head unit on the handlebars and provide feedback to riders through the tracker as well. They will then see not only data from the bike but data on race progress. Continuous feedback of time splits would be useful to riders.<br />
<br />
At the moment a common strategy for riders not expecting to win is to break away early in the event. Time and again the winner has spent most of the race out of site and unnoticed in the peloton. Race tracking data could be fed into models that are providing live predictions of the race result. These predictions could be quite exciting for viewers and the predictions themselves will probably change the race as riders will change there behaviour based on the likely outcome. Riders are doing that now but it's more random than it could be. The motivation for banning race radios is to make racing more exciting through increasing rider ignorance. This is almost the opposite approach of making racing more exciting by reducing viewer ignorance. It is probably impossible to keep the audience informed and the riders ignorant.<br />
<br />
All of the existing live tracking systems are crude compared to what can be done. I've presented some ideas on what I think will emerge but amongst those with whom I communicate there are differing opinions on what form race tracking will eventually take and what technology to build it with. It is too early for a consensus to have emerged.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Could The Tour Down Under Be First?</h3>
I am hoping the Tour Down Under in 2013 will be the first race to comprehensively track the field. The UCI expert committee should have completed their deliberations by then.<br />
<br />
A method that could work is to issue riders at pre race sign on with under seat trackers, similar to those we <a href="http://blog.urremote.com/2012/02/adventures-tracking-bicycle-racing-why.html">used in 2012</a>, and collect them at the end.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='480' height='399' src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/ujIsCArYTeU?feature=player_embedded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>The tracker under Jay McCarthy's seat can be seen in the scene just after Jay's easy win in a 2012 king of the mountain section.</b></div>
<br />
Riders that are willing, can can link the trackers to their power meters, speed sensors and heart rate monitors as well. The race data could then be made available through an official application, a data stream for third party presentation and hopefully overlaid on TV telecasts.Kenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2473504615610883562.post-41397850724897827372012-04-30T16:29:00.000+10:002012-05-19T22:30:42.657+10:00Activity LoggingAvocado <a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.urremote.classifier">Activity Classifier</a> has now been published in Google Play. It uses the handset accelerometers to classify activities by type and quantify aerobic intensity in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metabolic_equivalent" target="_blank">MET</a>. Data is uploaded live to Google Fusion Tables.<br />
Activity logging can be used to:-<br />
<ul>
<li>Provide information on total exercise, health and activity levels.</li>
<li>Automate exercise tracking.</li>
<li>Infer further lifestyle information by combining with other information sources, for example location data.</li>
</ul>
<h3>
How Much Time Do I Spend In Each Activity?</h3>
Using the <a href="https://www.google.com/fusiontables/DataSource?snapid=S50574725nY" target="_blank">Activities_Summary</a> Fusion Table we can discover what proportion of time is spent on each activity. First we <a href="https://www.google.com/fusiontables/DataSource?snapid=S505746sZOu" target="_blank">aggregate by activity </a>and sum the time, then visualise the data with a <a href="https://www.google.com/fusiontables/DataSource?snapid=S505748I7bp" target="_blank">pie chart</a>, get the embeddable code and paste it into a web page or blog to give Figure 1.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><iframe width="500" height="300" scrolling="no" frameborder="no" src="https://www.google.com/fusiontables/embedviz?&containerId=gviz_canvas&q=select+col6%2C+SUM(col4)+from+3845419+where+col4+%3C+'1000'+and+col6+does+not+contain+'End'+and+col6+does+not+contain+'Unknown'+and+col6+does+not+contain+'Other'&qrs=+and+col6+%3E%3D+&qre=+and+col6+%3C%3D+&qe=+group+by++col6&viz=GVIZ&t=PIE&width=500&height=300"></iframe></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 1 Activity distribution for all time, updated every time the page is viewed.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Figure 1 is a live <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scalable_Vector_Graphics" target="_blank">SVG</a> graph which changes as the underlying data changes. It is nicely interactive but will not display on most Android web browers so it can be also be turned into the static image of figure 2 which will not update.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxqIW72mu6y63n3U5H82lXi_J18rP79Knutu8VvUC3KQQsKgs3Lg4Y5vAMpu0hlY0A6AIuMp3ftf8yR4XiETJbkmaDaOOeNhyphenhyphenvP4I81OA5JlT2fg1i0QA_PgvwwGGCohGXHniig8jEc4w/s1600/ActivityDistributionPieChart3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="252" width="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxqIW72mu6y63n3U5H82lXi_J18rP79Knutu8VvUC3KQQsKgs3Lg4Y5vAMpu0hlY0A6AIuMp3ftf8yR4XiETJbkmaDaOOeNhyphenhyphenvP4I81OA5JlT2fg1i0QA_PgvwwGGCohGXHniig8jEc4w/s400/ActivityDistributionPieChart3.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 2 Activity distribution up to 26 April 2012 as a static image.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
To get useful data, phone activities need to be separated from user activities. A large portion of the day the phone is charging, mostly overnight when I'm asleep. On average several hours a day the handset is detected as uncarried, mostly when I'm at home. As I'm not carrying it, the handset provides no information on my activities during this time but they would be mostly sedentary. Figure 2 is influenced by me being sick for a week so over time it should deviate from Figure 1. A depressingly small amount of my average day is spent running but I do commute by bike. At the moment this is classified as walking so is included in my walking figure. This will change in the future. I try to walk every day and this is reflected in the data. The rest of the average day I'm stationary which includes standing and sitting but in my case is mostly sitting.<br /><br />
<h3>Activity Distribution For A Particular Period</h3>
The aggregated data can be <a href="https://www.google.com/fusiontables/DataSource?snapid=S478311DkHt" target="_blank">filtered</a> for a particular period as shown in figure 3.
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><iframe width="500" height="300" scrolling="no" frameborder="no" src="https://www.google.com/fusiontables/embedviz?&containerId=gviz_canvas&q=select+col6%2C+SUM(col4)+from+3845419+where+col4+%3C+'1000'+and+col2+%3E%3D+'14%2F4%2F2012+5%3A36%3A56+PM'+and+col2+%3C%3D+'16%2F04%2F2012++5%3A36%3A56+PM'&qrs=+and+col6+%3E%3D+&qre=+and+col6+%3C%3D+&qe=+group+by++col6&viz=GVIZ&t=PIE&width=500&height=300"></iframe></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 3 Activity distribution 14th - 16th of April when I was healthy.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
This period is included in Figure 2 but I managed more walking and running in these few days than the average. These are reasonable activity levels to aspire to.
<br />
<br />
<h3>
Activity Distribution For The Last 'n' Days</h3>
Until now the query for the data to be plotted was built by selecting options in the fusion table interface and the embeddable html this generated was pasted into this page. This hasn't required any programming but by adding a little JavaScript we can make the data to be plotted user configurable. As an example, take the embeddable code generated in the fusion table interface for the <a href=href="https://www.google.com/fusiontables/DataSource?snapid=S478311DkHt" target="_blank">particular period</a> shown in figure 3 and change the date filter value from a constant to a variable. Then provide a text box to capture user input. The JavaScript updates the query variable with the user input and sends the query to recreate the graph. The result, an activity distribution for the previous user chosen, number of days, is shown in figure 4. The JavaScript can be seen and copied from the page source beginning at //Example begins here// and ending at
<script type="text/javascript">
function updategraph(NumberOfDays)
{
// Create a date object. Because no arguments are
// passed, the date object contains the current date and
// time (to the millisecond).
var dt = new Date();
var yesterday = new Date(dt-NumberOfDays*1000*60*60*24) ;
// Determine and display the month, day, and year.
// The getMonth method uses a zero offset for
// the month number.
var month = dt.getMonth()+1;
var day = dt.getDate();
var year = dt.getFullYear();
var DayAgomonth = yesterday.getMonth()+1;
var DayAgoday = yesterday.getDate();
var DayAgoyear = yesterday.getFullYear();
//document.write(month + '/' + day + '/' + year+' ');
//document.write(DayAgomonth + '/' + DayAgoday + '/' + DayAgoyear+' ');
//document.write();
//document.write("<p>" + Date() + "</p>");
document.getElementById("demo").innerHTML='<iframe frameborder="no" height="300" scrolling="no" src="https://www.google.com/fusiontables/embedviz?&containerId=gviz_canvas&q=select+col6%2C+SUM(col4)+from+3845419+where+col6+does+not+contain+'End'+and+col6+does+not+contain+'Unknown'+and+col6+does+not+contain+'Other'+and+col2+%3E+''+DayAgoday+'%2F'+DayAgomonth+'%2F'+DayAgoyear+''+group+by++col6&viz=GVIZ&t=PIE&width=500&height=300" width="500"></iframe>' ;
}
function updateGraphAgain()
{
updategraph(document.getElementById("Days").value);
}
</script>
<div id="demo">This is where a graph goes.</div>
<form>
<fieldset>
<legend>Previous days to include:</legend>
Days: <input type="integer" value=10 id="Days" onchange="updateGraphAgain()" /><br />
</fieldset>
</form>
<div class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">
Figure 4 Distribution of activities from today for a user configurable number of days.</div>
<script type="text/javascript">
updategraph(document.getElementById("Days").value);
</script>
//Example ends here//
<br />
<br />
Using figure 4 I can check if I am currently achieving the average daily walking times to which I aspire, shown in figure 3 .
<br />
<br />
<h3>
Average MET For Each Activity</h3>
Sitting on the couch watching the TV gives a MET of 1 in contrast to, say, jogging which can require 7 times more energy. Step counting with a pedometer is often used to quantify exercise levels as the sensors are cheap and everyone understands steps, but <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metabolic_equivalent" target="_blank">MET</a> is a better standard for quantifying aerobic effort. Metabolic Equivalent of Task (MET), or simply<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metabolic_equivalent" target="_blank"> metabolic equivalent</a>, is a measure of the intensity of aerobic exercise.<br />
Aggregating by activity, excluding running, averaging MET and viewing as a <a href="https://www.google.com/fusiontables/DataSource?snapid=S505751AoB0" target="_blank">line graph</a> gives the result in figure 5.
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><iframe width="500" height="300" scrolling="no" frameborder="no" src="https://www.google.com/fusiontables/embedviz?&containerId=gviz_canvas&q=select+col6%2C+AVERAGE(col8)+as+'MET'+from+3845419+where+col6+does+not+contain+'End'+and+col6+does+not+contain+'Unknown'+and+col6+does+not+contain+'Running'+and+col4+%3E+'3'&qrs=+and+col6+%3E%3D+&qre=+and+col6+%3C%3D+&qe=+group+by++col6+order+by+AVERAGE(col8)+asc&viz=GVIZ&t=LINE&width=500&height=300"></iframe></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 5 Average MET for each activity excluding running for all time. All "Uncarried" activities are handset rather than human activities and MET is recorded as 1 because there is no information to show the human is not sedentary.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
MET can be measured from accelerometer data quite accurately in most situations but not all. For example, accelerometers will measure the increase in MET with increasing speed but are insensitive to change of grade. It's superior to step counting though, as step count is unaffected by both pace and grade. I like to walk up mountains and try to do so daily so some of my walking will be at a higher than measured MET. My running sample is too small for the MET to be meaningful.<br />
<br />
<h3>
When Does Walking Happen?</h3>
You can plot duration versus time for a particular activity. Most of my physical activity is walking so filtering on walking and visualising the result as a <a href="https://www.google.com/fusiontables/DataSource?snapid=S50575268nJ">zoomable line chart</a> shows when I do it as illustrated in figure 6. Try zooming these graphs or sliding the graph window with the control in the lower window. It is very nice.
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><iframe frameborder="no" height="300" scrolling="no" src="https://www.google.com/fusiontables/embedviz?&containerId=gviz_canvas&isXyPlot=true&bsize=0&rstart=2012%2F4%2F15+6%3A58%3A1&rend=2012%2F4%2F15+19%3A47%3A19&q=select+col2%2C+col4+as+'Duration in minutes per instance'+from+3845419+where+col6+%3D+'Walking'+and+col2+%3E+'13%2F4%2F2012'&qrs=+and+col2+%3E%3D+&qre=+and+col2+%3C%3D+&qe=+order+by+col2+asc&viz=GVIZ&t=LINE_AGGREGATE&width=500&height=300" width="500"></iframe></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 6 Minutes walking versus time shows what time of the day long walks take place</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Doing the same thing for MET gives the result in figure 7.
<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><iframe frameborder="no" height="300" scrolling="no" src="https://www.google.com/fusiontables/embedviz?&containerId=gviz_canvas&isXyPlot=true&bsize=0&rstart=2012%2F4%2F15+6%3A58%3A1&rend=2012%2F4%2F15+19%3A47%3A19&q=select+col2%2C+col8+as+'MET per instance'+from+3845419+where+col6+%3D+'Walking'+and+col2+%3E+'13%2F4%2F2012'&qrs=+and+col2+%3E%3D+&qre=+and+col2+%3C%3D+&qe=+order+by+col2+asc&viz=GVIZ&t=LINE_AGGREGATE&width=500&height=300" width="500"></iframe></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 7 MET while walking versus time.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Comparing figure 6 and figure 7 shows that I get the majority of my aerobic exercise during the long walks. My MET during these walks is double the overall average shown in figure 5 even though it is underestimated when climbing mountains.
<br />
<br />
<h3>
Fusion Tables</h3>
As demonstrated in the above examples Fusion tables provide a great opportunity to play with your activity data and fine control over what you publish or share with friends. The examples above have links to the graph definitions that can be copied for your own data. Avocado <a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.urremote.classifier">Activity Classifier</a> creates two Fusion Tables; the <a href="https://www.google.com/fusiontables/DataSource?snapid=S5057545u6h" target="_blank">Activities</a> table which contains a lot of detail and the <a href="https://www.google.com/fusiontables/DataSource?snapid=S50574725nY" target="_blank">Activities_Summary</a> which is a subset of the first and intended to be shared.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Battery Consumption</h3>
Avocado <a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.urremote.classifier">Activity Classifier</a> runs intermittently in the background whenever the phone is on and will be too inconvenient to use if it consumes significant battery power. The accelerometer, a <a href="http://www.bosch-sensortec.com/content/language1/downloads/BMA150_DataSheet_Rev.1.5_30May2008.pdf" target="_blank">BMA150</a>, in many handsets is a low power device. If it was configured to transfer data periodically using interupts, battery consumption while activity monitoring could be significantly reduced and somebody will probably sell an Android sports phone one day that does it. Currently <a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.urremote.classifier">AvocadoAC</a> has a 20% duty cycle, sampling 6 seconds out of every 30. Consequently it already draws less from your battery than pedometer apps but we are still searching for the sweet spot. In the test shown in figure 8, power consumption is lower than Cell standby and Phone idle which hopefully is low enough to satisfy most users.
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQPxPrRjxoYPQHvLPwYZYxkt8METPUQRK4rc7HWroOnQZdju-oAqbRQs4NFTxXa2EFDN6g7kop54n5iHFaMwDpugZ9jzPtuC2leyQMsW4-CU6-KIhV0b43v1wc3MGgeLfbejS8emPbGbM/s1600/BatteryConsumptionScreenshot.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQPxPrRjxoYPQHvLPwYZYxkt8METPUQRK4rc7HWroOnQZdju-oAqbRQs4NFTxXa2EFDN6g7kop54n5iHFaMwDpugZ9jzPtuC2leyQMsW4-CU6-KIhV0b43v1wc3MGgeLfbejS8emPbGbM/s320/BatteryConsumptionScreenshot.png" width="180" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Figure 8 After over 10 hours the battery is still at 80%. Battery consumption in this test is lower than Cell Standby and Phone idle. WiFi was on but not connected and consumed double the power of AvocadoAC.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
The effect on battery life for any particular user is highly dependant on use patterns. I usually get through a day OK and recharge every night. Battery consumption is low enough in this case so as not to be noticed. If you don't get through a day on a single charge the battery will fail slightly earlier but it's not likely to be noticed because other things, most likely the display, will be dominating consumption. If you normally go 3-4 days between charging then very little battery is being consumed and you are likely to notice the additional load from Avocado <a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.urremote.classifier">Activity Classifier</a>.
<br />
<br />
<h3>
Where Does This Work Fit?</h3>
Our overall goal with this work is to monitor exercise and training and make lifestyle, training and tactical race decisions based on data rather than guesswork. The data that could be recorded is almost infinite and the effort to acquire it can easily be greater than the value of the information that it provides. Therefore, data acquisition must require as little human intervention as possible. This requires; methods to detect what data is appropriate for any particular situation, acquiring the minimum necessary, summarising the data as it is recorded and storing the summary in a useful form.
Avocado <a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.urremote.classifier">Activity Classifier</a> is intended to provide a record of exercise and activity data during the course of a day and when a training activity is detected invoke other applications suitable for monitoring specific training activities all without user intervention.
<br />
<br />
A non market version which uploaded activity data to a centralised repository was made available when the conference paper <a dir="ltr" href="https://sites.google.com/site/urremote/the-team/ken-taylor/ActivityClassificationWithSmartPhonesForSportsActivities.pdf?attredirects=0">Activity Classification With Smart Phones For Sports Activities</a> was published. Since then, the classification algorithm has been changed from <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-nearest_neighbour" target="_blank">K-Nearest Neighbour</a> (KNN) to a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naive_Bayes_classifier" target="_blank">Naive Bayes classifier</a> and Activity data is now uploaded to Google Docs <a href="http://www.google.com/fusiontables/Home/" target="_blank">Fusion Tables</a> rather than our own repository.
<br />
<br />
<h3>
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2473504615610883562" name="Publication">Publication</a></h3>
<div>
Ken Taylor, U. A. Abdulla, R. J. N. Helmer, J. Lee, and I. Blanchonette. Activity classification with smart phones for sports activities. In APCST 2011:<a href="http://www.apcst2011.com/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #339999; text-decoration: underline;"> 5th Asia-Pacific Congress on Sports Technology</a>, Procedia Engineering. RMIT University, Elsevier, August 2011. <span style="word-spacing: 3px;"><span style="color: #999999; font-size: 11px;">162k</span> <a dir="ltr" href="https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnx1cnJlbW90ZXxneDo0NmRiODdiNWI1ZTBkM2Q2" style="color: #339999; text-decoration: underline;" target="_blank">View</a> <a dir="ltr" href="https://sites.google.com/site/urremote/the-team/ken-taylor/ActivityClassificationWithSmartPhonesForSportsActivities.pdf?attredirects=0" style="color: #339999; text-decoration: underline;">Download</a></span></div>
<br />Kenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2473504615610883562.post-8504509087105435572012-02-09T12:40:00.000+11:002012-02-11T17:34:19.847+11:00Adventures Tracking Bicycle Racing - Why Isn't Race Tracking Ubiquitous?Previously I asked, <a href="http://blog.urremote.com/2011/11/is-live-bicycle-tracking-going-to-have.html" target="_blank">"is live bicycle tracking going to have a major impact on cycling"?</a> This was in a training context and in the few weeks since, under the guidance of <a href="http://www.ausport.gov.au/ais/sssm/physiology/our_team/dr_david_martin" target="_blank">Dave Martin</a> from the <a href="http://www.ausport.gov.au/ais/sports/cycling/home" target="_blank">AIS</a>, we started investigating its usefulness at the <a href="http://blog.urremote.com/2011/11/tough-times-at-ais-womens-road-cycling.html" target="_blank">AIS Womens Road Cycling Camp</a> and the first <a href="http://www.greenedgecycling.com/" target="_blank">GreenEDGE</a> training camp where we tracked rides around <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/tag/ais%20riders" target="_blank">Canberra and Thredbo</a>. Most of the <a href="http://www.greenedgecycling.com/" target="_blank">GreenEDGE</a> team management and Australian members have have been part the AIS in some capacity due to the longevity of the AIS cycling program so they work well together. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_White_%28cyclist%29" target="_blank">Matt White</a>, an AIS graduate, introduced me to pro cycling and GreenEDGE Technical Advisor, <a href="http://www.cyclingarchives.com/coureurfiche.php?coureurid=7154" target="_blank">Lars Teutenberg</a> had enthusiasm for tracking and experience in some practical aspects that proved invaluable, having worked with the Google team on <a href="http://www.dcrainmaker.com/2010/07/behind-scenes-of-team-htc-columbia-and.html">tracking the 2010 Tour de France</a>. We were using a different version of the same My Tracks software. It would be rare to find a situation more serendipitous.<br />
<br />
Despite growing use of sports tracking at sub elite levels using services like <a href="https://market.android.com/details?id=com.mapmyride.android2" target="_blank">MapMyRide</a>, <a href="https://market.android.com/details?id=com.endomondo.android" target="_blank">Endomondo</a>, <a href="https://market.android.com/details?id=com.sportstracklive.android" target="_blank">SportsTrackLive</a>, <a href="https://market.android.com/details?id=com.fitnesskeeper.runkeeper.pro&hl=en" target="_blank">Runkeeper</a>, etc. I observed little use of live tracking amongst elite cyclists, so whatever potential it offers remains to be exploited. Even simple information, like knowing where everyone was on a training ride, was useful for increasing training efficiency. This seemed odd, but <a href="http://www.peakscoachinggroup.com/ASPX/Bios/hallen.aspx" target="_blank">Hunter Allen</a> from Training Peaks <a href="http://youtu.be/b8tJnFE_BFg?t=7m20s" target="_blank">speaking at Interbike 2011</a> makes the same observation for power meters, noting they were first popularised at sub elite levels. He calls the phenomenon trickle up, in contrast to motor racing where technology trickles down. Cadel Evans, another AIS graduate, has been emphasising the importance of simulation technology and is "'<a href="http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-sport/bmc-has-cycling-edge-says-cadel-evans-20120127-1qkxf.html" target="_blank">confident' his team remained at the cutting edge</a>" in his 2012 Tour De France preparations but there is a wide variety of attitudes to technology and science in cycling. Laboratory based techniques, which the AIS use intensively, are well developed but there seems a lot left to exploit in measurement and analysis of training and race data.<br />
<br />
While aiming to increase cycling performance and training effectiveness we got the opportunity recently to track a few races. Only the biggest races have comprehensive TV coverage and even then, with the cameras mostly watching the leading riders and little statistical information, much of the action is never observed. One GreenEDGE rider at the Thredbo training camp likened bicycle racing to a chess match and it became apparent while tracking these races there is tremendous potential to expose far more of that subtlety to a race audience. Tennis, cricket and motor racing viewing are greatly improved by sophisticated audience information systems as demonstrated in this F1 system from McLaren.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/_8h4nJxMprA?rel=0" width="560"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
The tracked races were GreenEDGE at the <a href="http://web.me.com/rbueman/JBCC/2012_Stages.html" target="_blank">Jayco Bay Cycling Classic 2012</a>, some GreenEDGE riders at the <a href="http://www.ballaratcycling.com.au/" target="_blank">Australia Road National Championships</a> and <a href="http://www.unisa.edu.au/tdu/default.asp" target="_blank">UniSA</a> and some GreenEDGE riders at the <a href="http://www.tourdownunder.com.au/" target="_blank">Tour Down Under</a>.</div>
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;">Tour Down Under</span><br />
The most high profile event tracked was the <a href="http://www.tourdownunder.com.au/" target="_blank">2012 Tour Down Under</a> in Adelaide. MapMyTracks fast tracked their development of a <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/events/tour-down-under-2012" target="_blank">new event interface</a> for this event which considerably improved the viewing experience. Riders are represented by their <a href="http://www.tourdownunder.com.au/start-list.htm" target="_blank">race number</a>. In earlier events riders carried the trackers but for this event we mounted the trackers in saddle bags. This is not the ideal position for viewing GPS satellites and is subject to high levels of vibration but the trackers can be fitted to the bikes several hours before the race which helps with logistics, do not interfere with airflow over the bike and do not interfere with or require any attention from from the riders. Other firsts for this event were:-<br />
<ul>
<li>Tracking initiated by timer to align track for all riders and minimise drain on the battery prior to starting the event.</li>
<li>Remote monitoring of battery condition.</li>
<li>The ability to suspend tracking mid event to preserve batteries.</li>
<li>Remote control of starting, suspending and stopping tracking.</li>
<li>High resolution data can be remotely accessed post event using <a href="http://www.dropbox.com/" target="_blank">dropbox</a>.</li>
<li>Tracker software and settings can be updated semi automatically which was needed for practical management of groups of trackers.</li>
</ul>
This was a lot of untested innovation. Minor tweaks and experience gained during the event in optimising its use meant tracking improved as the tour progressed. Dave Martin organised UCI approval of the tracking equipment which wasn't finally granted until the eve of the event. Paolo Menaspa took responsibility for liaising with teams and for fitting and recovering the trackers each day.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Down Under Classic</span><br />
The event opened with the <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/events/tour-down-under-2012/race/down-under-classic" target="_blank">Down Under Classic</a> criterium. The new interface shows all of the riders on an overhead view and takes a minute or two to download all of the data required to properly display the replay of a long race. It is most interesting when the control to speed up the replay is used to watch the race at 16 or so times faster than it was run.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzoENg1R9mYeWAfDVnPmdTcuFAAZ5GP8WHe9-_UlHOfq4x2wkPUzp9gsn5MzMgXa0LR5po9SCu6P8zM0LiwUSqxcFBf07r1vG1BVyu0SyA36fAfyS1h-kvZifYrN3HrejdOIYv_WXke30/s1600/DownUnderClassicView.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="361" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzoENg1R9mYeWAfDVnPmdTcuFAAZ5GP8WHe9-_UlHOfq4x2wkPUzp9gsn5MzMgXa0LR5po9SCu6P8zM0LiwUSqxcFBf07r1vG1BVyu0SyA36fAfyS1h-kvZifYrN3HrejdOIYv_WXke30/s640/DownUnderClassicView.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">About one third of the way into the race this view shows a breakaway group containing two <a href="http://www.unisa.edu.au/tdu/default.asp" target="_blank">UniSA</a> <br />
riders, Bernard Sulzberger 186 and Jay McCarthy 182. The leading GreenEDGE rider was Leigh Howard 7 and the last rider tracked was Steele Von Hoff, 181 who finished in 5th position overall and was the highest placed rider tracked.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The interface also provides statisitical information including heart rate and power where it is available.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirHt3TSXSmPET7ssrvaKiIH1Z1I8KfTIubvOYdCW8Ul6LfmE4Mtp-pxYTH7_6STiRdz-kF09dZI7baKMiEzPfoFfi1ohUJ30Bt5Dq7j8LQc2v5vq-53zNeVKlQZICEcSItnW8sJbQirpg/s1600/DownUnderClassicSensorData.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="521" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirHt3TSXSmPET7ssrvaKiIH1Z1I8KfTIubvOYdCW8Ul6LfmE4Mtp-pxYTH7_6STiRdz-kF09dZI7baKMiEzPfoFfi1ohUJ30Bt5Dq7j8LQc2v5vq-53zNeVKlQZICEcSItnW8sJbQirpg/s640/DownUnderClassicSensorData.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">In this race Luke Durbridge, 3 was involved in a pre race collision, so did not start and tracking was lost from Lachlan Norris, 184. Most of the GreenEDGE team streamed data from their SRM Power Control 7's but only Simon Gerrans was wearing a heart rate monitor. Not many of the UniSA team were using PCS7's but power and cadence data is also available for Jay McCarthy, 182.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
<div>
There is also an interface for each individual rider and their monitored data.</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg96uNVmSJfKbdhyphenhyphenU8zbYZbvcX5V4vv4RbR0FK40BR-buROIaHSkDbB0mLE3rlHx1JOl8hqaPL27fc06wGvc8j36LthMxHEL3_tHqlna8892TRgI6OuaP13RJekxq36aTssIPEch6TolW8/s1600/GerransNearEndOfClassic.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg96uNVmSJfKbdhyphenhyphenU8zbYZbvcX5V4vv4RbR0FK40BR-buROIaHSkDbB0mLE3rlHx1JOl8hqaPL27fc06wGvc8j36LthMxHEL3_tHqlna8892TRgI6OuaP13RJekxq36aTssIPEch6TolW8/s400/GerransNearEndOfClassic.png" width="346" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Zoomed in on the the <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/371558" target="_blank">individual page</a> for Simon Gerrans, 4 to show a lap and a half of cadence and power data near the end of the race. </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
In a Mozilla browser, but not Chrome the power graphs can be zoomed to particular regions. Zooming to the portion of the race from the start to the time the rider eased off as they approached the finish I extracted the average power which is listed in the table below.<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 384px;">
<colgroup><col span="6" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 48pt;" width="64"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Race Number</span></td>
<td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Position</span></td>
<td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Name</span></td>
<td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Team</span></td>
<td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">+ Time</span></td>
<td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Average Power (W)</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">2</span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">15</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">MCEWEN, R (AUS)</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">GreenEDGE</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">0:00:02</span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">261</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">185</span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">34</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">PALMER, T (AUS - ACT)</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">UNI SA - Australia</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">0:00:17</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">187</span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">36</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">CLARKE, W</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">UNI SA - Australia</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">0:00:17</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">182</span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">37</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">MCCARTHY, J (AUS - Qld)</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">UNI SA - Australia</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">0:00:17</span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">295</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">183</span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">57</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">DENNIS, R (AUS - SA)</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">UNI SA - Australia</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">0:00:17</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">5</span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">59</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">GOSS, M (AUS)</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">GreenEDGE</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">0:00:17</span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">279</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">4</span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">80</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">GERRANS, S (AUS)</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">GreenEDGE</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">0:00:37</span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">254</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">184</span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">102</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">NORRIS, L (AUS - Vic)</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">UNI SA - Australia</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">0:00:37</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">186</span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">109</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">SULZBERGER, B (AUS - Tas)</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">UNI SA - Australia</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">0:00:37</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">6</span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">110</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">O'GRADY, S (AUS)</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">GreenEDGE</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">0:00:37</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">7</span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">124</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">HOWARD, L (AUS) </span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">GreenEDGE</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">0:01:05</span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">278</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">1</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">DNF</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">DNF MEYER, C</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">GreenEDGE</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"> DNF</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
I'd heard a theory that Robbie McEwen had a talent for preserving energy by riding on the wheel of others which allowed him to beat many stronger riders. This data supports that theory as Robbie was the first to finish of the tracked riders with almost the lowest energy expenditure. The extra effort Jay McCarthy expended in the breakaway is also visible as he had the highest energy expenditure, 7% more than Robbie, even though he finished 15 secs later. Leigh Howard worked hard but finished over a minute behind Robbie. This demonstrates the advantage of tracking more riders. Everything in a race happens in a context and the more riders that are tracked the more meaningful is the information revealed. Each additional rider tracked increases the information content in the data of the riders already tracked so race tracking will be more useful when it is universal.<br />
<br />
This race was the first time we tried carrying trackers in saddle bags and the first packaging design failed as several handsets were separated from their protective bubble wrap by the end of the event. Double layer bubble wrap pouches were manufactured for subsequent events. Tracking quality was good for this event as we tracked two full teams. Criteriums are the easiest races to track because:-<br />
<ul>
<li>The logistics are fairly easy, starting and finishing in the same place and providing reasonable access to bikes and riders.</li>
<li>They are short, eliminating battery management issues.</li>
<li>They are generally conducted in locations with good mobile infrastructure.</li>
</ul>
Compared to road races tracking criteriums has the least to offer a local audience because:-<br />
<ul>
<li>Most of the course is visible to an observer.</li>
<li>They are short, with little time to consider statistics.</li>
<li>They are high action, low strategy events. </li>
</ul>
However tracking provides race coverage for remote viewers and could offer video like aerial imagery as shown in this example tracking some of the riders at a Canberra Criterium.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/a1klTS0BNtU?rel=0" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
With a bit of effort video could be generated and delivered live via <a href="http://www.blogger.com/"><span id="goog_31827241"></span>YouTube Live<span id="goog_31827242"></span></a> streaming. Alternatively the data can be streamed live into Google Earth which requires low bandwidth and allows viewers great control over how the race is viewed, choosing viewpoints, which rider they follow etc. This can be tried with the <a href="https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B3RMBzgiNpwGMTFiNzMyMzEtZDU2Yy00MmJmLWE3OGUtMTE5MWQ2ZjVmZDEx&sort=name&layout=list&num=50&pli=1" target="_blank">data used </a>to make the Canberra Criterium video.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Prospect to Clare Stage 1</span>
<br />
In Prospect to Clare <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/events/tour-down-under-2012/race/stage-12" target="_blank">Stage 1</a> the GreenEDGE trackers travelled by car so part way into the race the GreenEDGE trackers were remotely switched off. The race was tracked from the start and Dennis Rohan, 183 was tracked well in an early breakaway. Battery life was monitored remotely and UniSA trackers were periodically switched off to extend their life. While the UniSA trackers were off some of the GreenEDGE trackers were restarted to provide vehicle location. No trackers lasted to the end of the race and the swapping between trackers made race data confusing but vehicle location was useful information so the idea of tracking vehicles was continued in later races. Battery quality varied between trackers with periodic remote monitoring of battery condition revealing the trackers that were performing worst. The batteries in these trackers were replaced in post race handset servicing.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: large;">Colemans Group Stage 2</span><br />
<span style="text-align: center;">In Colemans Group </span><a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/events/tour-down-under-2012/race/stage-21" style="text-align: center;" target="_blank">Stage 2</a><span style="text-align: center;"> stage we were fortunate to be tracking Will Clarke's </span><a href="http://www.bicycling.com/news/pro-cycling/tour-down-under-will-clarke-shocks-favorites-stage-2-and-martin-kohler-takes-lead-v" style="text-align: center;" target="_blank">heroic win</a><span style="text-align: center;">. Hopefully Will's effort will help overcome the fear some riders express that carrying trackers will reduce their race speed.</span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7023/6718921375_11cf888500.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7023/6718921375_11cf888500.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Will Clarke preparing for the race start. The tracker can be clearly seen under the saddle.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7162/6718956099_84ee98a88d.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="212" src="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7162/6718956099_84ee98a88d.jpg" width="320" /></a></td>
<td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7147/6718961435_989d2c4e3c.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="212" src="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7147/6718961435_989d2c4e3c.jpg" width="320" /></a></td>
</tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Will Clarke approaches the finish line alone 1 min 2 secs ahead of the peloton. The tracker is just viewable under the saddle.</td>
<td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Will Clarke on the podium celebrating his King of the Mountain and Stage 2 win at Stirling.</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Will was <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/375161" target="_blank">tracked</a> from part way through the race for about 2 hours until his tracker battery expired 20 minutes before the finish. The online display has errors in the replay but the ride displays without errors by downloading the GPX file and viewing it in Google Earth. Suspension of other trackers was cycled to preserve battery life but juggling varying battery lives, trying to focus tracking on breakaways and interesting parts of the race while aiming to finish the race without unused battery life was challenging. Part of the course lacked mobile coverage so in addition to controlled suspension of tracking, viewers saw bicycles remaining stationary for a period followed by fast travel as buffered data is uploaded when the tracker re-establishes communication. Viewers reported that suspensions, pauses and rapid travel was confusing so a method of communicating data age to viewers is required. Will Clarke dominated the race highlights which provided many views of the tracker on the bike.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/yph5K8vndTs?rel=0" width="560"></iframe></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The tracker on Will Clarke's bike is first seen at 50 secs with quite a long view at 1 min 56 secs. There are further views at 2 mins 34 secs, 2 mins 42 secs, the end of the Jayco sprint at 2 min 55 secs , a glimpse at 4 min 2 secs and finally at 4 mins 22 secs after crossing the finish line.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-size: large;">Stage 3 To Victor Harbour</span><br />
The longer battery life of the two <a href="http://www.sonyericsson.com/cws/products/mobilephones/overview/xperia-active?cc=gb&lc=en" target="_blank">Xperia Active</a> handsets we possessed made for better tracking than with the <a href="http://www.sonyericsson.com/cws/corporate/products/phoneportfolio/specification/xperiax10minipro" target="_blank">Xperia X10 mini pros</a> so we had ordered more. They hadn't arrived in time but FedEX tracking showed they would be delivered in Canberra on Tuesday. Umran flew back to Canberra Monday night and commenced preparing the new handsets as soon as they were delivered. Dave Martin picked them up Tuesday evening and drove the 14 hours to Adelaide on Wednesday while Umran tweaked the software. I got the handsets from a ragged Dave in Adelaide at 9 pm, uploaded the software tweaks and completed the preparation, packaging and charging by 2.30 am so that trackers could be delivered to the bike compound by 8.15 am for <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/events/tour-down-under-2012/race/stage-3" target="_blank">tracking of Stage 3</a> to Victor Harbour. Intermittent tracking had been confusing to viewers and we now had a full field of the longer life Xperia Active handsets so we started tracking half an hour after the race start so as to be confident of maintaining tracking, once started, until race end without suspension. This was a good strategy, so for the following races we estimated battery life then started tracking that period prior to the end of the race. The <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/events/tour-down-under-2012/race/stage-3" target="_blank">race replay</a> starts from the scheduled race start so it should be advanced manually until tracking is commenced to see the action, which is confusing.<br />
<br />
I travelled to Victor Harbour to catch the finish, which combined with some catch up work meant I didn't get to monitor most of that stage. The <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/events/tour-down-under-2012/race/stage-3" target="_blank">race replay</a> looks good but the live experience was less satisfactory showing only a few riders in the race view due to an unforeseen combination of circumstances that was corrected for subsequent events. Also much of the race was through areas without mobile coverage which meant loss of live updates for part of the race.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Stage 4</span> <br />
In BUPA stage 4, 7000 people also rode the same course as the Tour starting at any of 4 locations several hours prior to the pro riders. This is a great feature of the Tour Down Under leading to one reporter writing "<a href="http://www.smh.com.au/travel/activity/active/heaven-on-wheels-is-this-australias-perfect-tourist-event-20120126-1qivf.html" target="_blank">Heaven on wheels: is this Australia's perfect tourist event?</a>" The CSIRO CEO, <a href="http://www.csiro.au/Portals/About-CSIRO/Who-we-are/Executive/MeganClark.aspx" target="_blank">Megan Clark</a> was riding so we <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/376936" target="_blank">tracked her</a> as well and included her ride in the event.
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiCLvfa67vMP936tIN-EpsMVz8bXc3uW1pMq8MZX6x-cFLibmQNW3n9Cvv52MhbhdR9HElHNlqRHlb4JGcW9qbcH8jUfNzW46XtNgCqo7CO-UNCAKqZ43-2MZV03R-fXC_7NPbkVctFZI/s1600/P1010923.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiCLvfa67vMP936tIN-EpsMVz8bXc3uW1pMq8MZX6x-cFLibmQNW3n9Cvv52MhbhdR9HElHNlqRHlb4JGcW9qbcH8jUfNzW46XtNgCqo7CO-UNCAKqZ43-2MZV03R-fXC_7NPbkVctFZI/s1600/P1010923.JPG" width="320" /></a></td><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicrNm4tbLFjPAAsC-UxQVIvwAM7_MpVUy6EOaH411A9nWhOmiqQ2MJGx8LaRSLZp8tVctj_kjL7dLay8pjegmFRbK30QRGdZS8ipnB-MtOdgSTqXS6podXkB7Mn58BA7HbcvYu30FTAII/s320/P1010918.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicrNm4tbLFjPAAsC-UxQVIvwAM7_MpVUy6EOaH411A9nWhOmiqQ2MJGx8LaRSLZp8tVctj_kjL7dLay8pjegmFRbK30QRGdZS8ipnB-MtOdgSTqXS6podXkB7Mn58BA7HbcvYu30FTAII/s320/P1010918.JPG" width="165" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 13px; text-align: center;"><br />
Tracking CSIRO CEO, Megan Clark in the BUPA challenge with colleague Ian Blanchonette . The shadows show the early morning start.</td><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 13px; text-align: center;">Demonstrating the technology.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
<br />
A nice enhancement next year would be to promote tracking for public riders who own either Android or IPhone smart phones from a downloadable app that records their effort and allows them to compare their ride to others and the pros in the sprint and hill climb sections.<br />
<br />
Live tracking of bikes was smooth and reliable and remained that way for the rest of the Tour. Vehicle tracking of the GreenEDGE vehicle was lost as the tracker was carried within the vehicle in a location where it could not get a good fix on the GPS satellites. Tracking of the GreenEDGE support vehicle remained intermittent in the following races for the same reason.<br />
<br />
Jay McCarthy had an interesting ride in a breakaway of four. He led them over Smith's Hill to win the first of two King of the Mountain sections.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg782TepqPPkfp7yHiKRkmkvWDDnkeZz2oBr6YIx6babn7UfRSxmMGVERo-QVChEpcNW16blp6cufDsj7ebkLJvqFHxTTNmlcJfq2ydagd6Yv5zRrytAWS-3nw05dGeYYY-xiwPBfImMHk/s1600/SmithsHillJayMcCarthy.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="414" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg782TepqPPkfp7yHiKRkmkvWDDnkeZz2oBr6YIx6babn7UfRSxmMGVERo-QVChEpcNW16blp6cufDsj7ebkLJvqFHxTTNmlcJfq2ydagd6Yv5zRrytAWS-3nw05dGeYYY-xiwPBfImMHk/s640/SmithsHillJayMcCarthy.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Smith's Hill from bottom to top highlighted in red. The profile shows any two of a variety of parameters, in this case power and elevation, using KML data downloaded from MapMyTracks.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Plotting only the power trace for Smith's Hill shows the effort expended to win the climb. Jay is leading a small breakaway, he eases off in preparation for the sprint finish then goes for it.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjm_vpf6h-tLaJDkhHxzsskTtvBSWTUnO3wBMO05jomzLimI_gq3MZciw75Il4b76d8PrgLJxNv9mV826bE0HTu3tK9ls9jvvOFHRb5dfdSl9N5TOSLIkzc9vuyTnsNgGU-2T3CwviCfk8/s1600/JayMcCarthjy+Smith+Hill+Power.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjm_vpf6h-tLaJDkhHxzsskTtvBSWTUnO3wBMO05jomzLimI_gq3MZciw75Il4b76d8PrgLJxNv9mV826bE0HTu3tK9ls9jvvOFHRb5dfdSl9N5TOSLIkzc9vuyTnsNgGU-2T3CwviCfk8/s400/JayMcCarthjy+Smith+Hill+Power.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The zero power point corresponds to a small dip in the road and Jay eases off a little before the final surge.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Jay's easy win can be seen at 1 minute 35 seconds in <a href="http://youtu.be/5zvcHvEOlec?t=1m35s" target="_blank">the race summary video</a> followed by what seems a similarly easy win for Ruben Perez and a second for Blel Kadri over Jay at the following sprint finish. Jay leads the group into the sprint in both cases and the speed over the line is similar, 35 km/h for the hill climb and 43km/h for the sprint. Jay follows the same pattern in both finishes but sprints harder and longer in the losing sprint. Overlaying the power trace for the first finish on the on the second allows a comparison.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhF-g-Ud1UDCFOX_bJ1XtmN-JwIt64_6O0aHYToBpBAGViiwC44FEjvY20NBvDFiYeRAYkhuCANW9iRlAyxEyHQr4E-CWyRZJk1dYkCBAyU2V4ZuUqyX77aiyDfdyiDlnFvJ42qiam-KXQ/s1600/JayMcCarthyLosingSprint.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhF-g-Ud1UDCFOX_bJ1XtmN-JwIt64_6O0aHYToBpBAGViiwC44FEjvY20NBvDFiYeRAYkhuCANW9iRlAyxEyHQr4E-CWyRZJk1dYkCBAyU2V4ZuUqyX77aiyDfdyiDlnFvJ42qiam-KXQ/s400/JayMcCarthyLosingSprint.png" width="500" /></a></div>
<br />
Jay is just beginning his 15 second sprint at the start of the video scene. A second later he is passed at speed. At 100 metres to go Jay is closing the gap but it's too late. Jay had eased off more before the second sprint than the first and it looks like that's when Perez and Kadri commenced their effort. We don't have power data for Perez and Kadri but the speed differential as they passed Jay suggests they were applying the power while Jay was easing off.<br />
<br />
I monitored part of the race from a coffee shop along the route and had a surreal experience where a BUPA Challenge rider drinking coffee on a neighbouring table was proudly telling his colleagues of a project his company was working on that was going to revolutionise cycling by tracking riders. They didn't yet have a deployable solution but they were building an end to end system from scratch, with industrial mobile phones. Most of the functionality he described existed in the configuration streaming data as he spoke. We use a slightly modified version of Google's open source <a href="http://mytracks.appspot.com/" target="_blank">MyTracks</a> app, consumer hardware, the <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/about/api" target="_blank">MapMyTracks API</a>, the <a href="http://tasker.dinglisch.net/" target="_blank">Tasker</a> app for remote controlling our <a href="https://market.android.com/details?id=com.urremote.bridge&hl=en" target="_blank">Avocado MyTracks Bridge</a> app and <a href="http://www.google.com/earth/index.html" target="_blank">Google Earth</a> for investigating new ways of viewing the data. The BUPA rider's company will be competing against all of the existing sports tracking app providers, specialist organisations like <a href="http://www.srm.de/" target="_blank">SRM</a> with existing solutions and large organisations like <a href="http://www.garmin.com/us/" target="_blank">Garmin</a> who are building systems that allow Garmin components to be mixed and matched in other systems. Many people I have talked to about health and sports tracking applications similarly aim to dominate the field but I believe the immediate opportunities require cooperation, open systems that interact and narrow specialisation. An emerging trend is a three layer model with a data capture layer, an on-line data store and a data presentation layer with components in different layers from different providers.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Jayco Stage 5</span><br />
Stage 5 is the most watched in the Tour as it is broadcast live in Australia and around the world. The crowds were estimated to be 120,000 on Willunga hill and with many roads closed moving around the course was impractical. The mobile phone network was barely usable. Calls out were intermittent, outgoing SMS mostly failed to send and I couldn't call other mobiles at the race all day. At all of the races I have attended, on site monitoring of tracking was poor as the crowd always overloads the telco network during a race and it lacks sufficient bandwidth. This makes it difficult to use tracking information in a race environment. Tracking itself however, requires only low bandwidth and I didn't notice tracking delays, despite the heavily overloaded network.<br />
<br />
I was privileged to spend the day at the UniSA pavilion where Patrick Jonker was providing the race commentary. There was a wired internet connection, until it failed half way through the day, after which further monitoring became impossible using wireless. Tracking information was used to support the commentary and for a short period the live tracking page replaced the broadcast television displayed on screens throughout the pavilion . I formed the view more work is needed to improve the supply of timely statistics from which a commentator can pick and choose and there have been a range of suggestions provided.<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/6833431939/sizes/z/in/photostream/" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="212" src="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7164/6833431939_fd5fafc541_z.jpg" width="320" /></a></td><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/6833432701/sizes/z/in/photostream/" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="212" src="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7016/6833432701_949636bbe0_z.jpg" width="165" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 13px; text-align: center;">UniSA Pavillion at the Tour Down Under. Police waved from their cars as they went past which seemed odd until someone said<br />
the SA chief of police was attending.</td><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 13px; text-align: center;">With Patrick Jonker who provided the commentary at this event and on ABC radio on other days.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
We introduced tracking of the UniSA team vehicle in stage 5.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Stage 6</span><br />
Stage 6 was a short course that would decide the overall winner. A handset screen was broken during the race but it didn't interrupt tracking which ran smoothly.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMjA2tJ3l7TyfiCunRR4I4GBGz2qH4J4tfdHg3dwjttZTPd2Iw7bAXyhJj7NbUPBpRWLcmqy5EtX3mt6uNGYHeN3TAeFDqbqjhwU3LdiDWntxuyh7nXb0ogwq158-bakhSoo3JhVkeFlI/s1600/SmashedHandset.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMjA2tJ3l7TyfiCunRR4I4GBGz2qH4J4tfdHg3dwjttZTPd2Iw7bAXyhJj7NbUPBpRWLcmqy5EtX3mt6uNGYHeN3TAeFDqbqjhwU3LdiDWntxuyh7nXb0ogwq158-bakhSoo3JhVkeFlI/s320/SmashedHandset.jpg" width="177" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The screen on Will Clarke's <a href="http://www.sonyericsson.com/cws/products/mobilephones/overview/xperia-active?cc=gb&lc=en" target="_blank">Xperia Active</a> tracker was cracked in the Tour Down Under Stage 6</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The packaging had been sufficient to cushion the trackers through six previous days of hard racing but this failure demonstrated the harsh environment of an unsprung bicycle frame and that more thought is needed on packaging.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKMBJxxCZLBRvIwI8DEWsmLvUMzNhdB14bwLqTkMoqKtLuh4FPXunBR0sboXmInkBTu5-x8TM0j1ZJ1V6bKYCZkVE7GJoYNYRPjDRpYLlMgVEwD3Jrc12UMFGdsjQfGQ58eumrS3XliCk/s1600/IMG_20120208_093438.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="176" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKMBJxxCZLBRvIwI8DEWsmLvUMzNhdB14bwLqTkMoqKtLuh4FPXunBR0sboXmInkBTu5-x8TM0j1ZJ1V6bKYCZkVE7GJoYNYRPjDRpYLlMgVEwD3Jrc12UMFGdsjQfGQ58eumrS3XliCk/s320/IMG_20120208_093438.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Tracker packaging used in the Tour Down Under 2012. The tracker was in a double layer bubble wrap pouch inside the saddlebag.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Luke Durbridge, who we had been <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/TDU3" target="_blank">tracking all week</a>, played a dominant role in the race but in the confusion at the race start we'd failed to get a tracker on his bike. Andre Greipel won the sprint and led the peloton to win stage 6 in addition to wins in the Down Under Classic (no points) Stage 1, Stage 3 and several stage sprints. He was probably the most flamboyant rider in the Tour but finishing nearly 8 minutes behind Oscar Freire in Stage 4 put him out of contention for the overall win. The GC was between Simon Gerrans and Alejandro Valverde who were on equal time coming into Stage 6. Valverde finished 25th and Gerrans 27th in the leading group and they were separated by Robbie McEwen. This was probably the most interesting part of the race but being submerged in the peloton, the battle was mostly invisible to the race audience. Tracking could have revealed more of this drama.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Australia Road National Championships </span><br />
Dave Martin, working with Lars Teutenberg, managed the tracking for the <a href="http://www.cycleballarat.com.au/nationals.aspx" target="_blank">National championships</a>. Dave was new to Android and the <a href="https://market.android.com/details?id=com.urremote.bridge&hl=en" target="_blank">tracking app</a> which combined with the pre race confusion made app configuration difficult. This provided further incentive to introduce remote control of the
<a href="https://market.android.com/details?id=com.urremote.bridge&hl=en" target="_blank">tracking app</a> in future races.<br />
<br />
Trackers were carried in jersey back pockets. In this location they have a good view of satellites but compete for space with food and supplies. <a href="http://www.greenedgecycling.com/node/119" target="_blank">Amanda Spratt</a> mentioned that the tracker interfered with her elaborate packing strategy and Luke Durbridge said we were lucky not to get the tracker back with a bite out of it as he kept mistaking it for a power bar. The tracker can be seen as a bulge in Luke Durbridge's back pocket in this SBS news report.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/MIAu1lJHz64?rel=0" width="560"></iframe></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 13px;">The tracker can be seen as a bulge in Luke Durbridge's back pocket in this SBS news report at 1minute 14 secs. This is late in the race so that Luke has already consumed the rest of his pocket contents. </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
In the <a href="http://www.cycleballarat.com.au/media/840138/2012carn_rr_elitemen_result.pdf" target="_blank">Elite Men's Road Race</a> we tracked <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/364409" target="_blank">Luke Durbridge</a> with a long life tracker. The tracker lasted 4 hours 14 minutes before the battery expired and the race lasted 4 hours 7 minutes but we missed the end of the race as the last chance to manually start the tracker was 20 minutes before race start. Luke was in the thick of the action for much of the race. We also tracked <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/364414" target="_blank">Mitch Docker</a> who wore a heart rate sensor and <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/364411" target="_blank">Michael Hepburn</a> for a short period until his tracker failed.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVGeL4MymHdEVW68jieeJ4GjHVF26treEctnp_PSrzSyqPomzQuDHcPlvJrmkt9WKO74s38L_1bTvMhEkjDzB4-Vz8EoYxy-Uqbh7kRER9eQ03ylljOCdlBbEHQFA5OAGEmL1AdNF_bpU/s1600/MitchDockerNationals.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="177" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVGeL4MymHdEVW68jieeJ4GjHVF26treEctnp_PSrzSyqPomzQuDHcPlvJrmkt9WKO74s38L_1bTvMhEkjDzB4-Vz8EoYxy-Uqbh7kRER9eQ03ylljOCdlBbEHQFA5OAGEmL1AdNF_bpU/s640/MitchDockerNationals.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Mitch Dockers heart rate is around 170 - 180 bpm during the climb and drops back on the descent to a bit over 100 bpm.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Lap 10, when Cameron Meyer opened up a gap, was a slow lap for the peloton with Luke Durbridge being 1 minute 34 secs slower than his race average to that point. I noticed it in the tracking but I didn't hear it mentioned in the race commentary. Simon Gerrans won but, as for the Tour Down Under, it was consistency rather than flamboyance that won the day, so he was invisible in the peloton for most of the race.<br />
<br />
In the <a href="http://www.cycleballarat.com.au/media/842908/2012carn_tt_women_result.pdf" target="_blank">Women's Time Trial</a> time trial the following day we tracked <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/366652" target="_blank">Amanda Spratt</a>, <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/366650" target="_blank">Gracie Elvin</a> and the winner <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/366651" target="_blank">Shara Gillow</a>. In the <a href="http://www.cycleballarat.com.au/media/842911/2012carn_tt_elitemen_result.pdf" target="_blank">Elite Men's Time Trial</a> we tracked <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/366669" target="_blank">Michael Hepburn</a>, <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/366668" target="_blank">Cameron Meyer</a> who came second and<a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/366677" target="_blank"> Luke Durbridge</a> who won. I tweeted a couple of splits and was able to tweet the outcome 3 minutes before any other tweets.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZvdZ5JGiAn8TF1Xr-_x4-66eS1mZ4gyApeIMgUfo6f1GUcsFlec6CMVkVXkpO0Fq_skNlKp6js0gZiMC6sy1kXr8Zere1qkKP4J75aTCFMjPLI84VvVWllN0QlWxAOlAJT7rFreuVUeA/s1600/TimeTrialTwitter.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZvdZ5JGiAn8TF1Xr-_x4-66eS1mZ4gyApeIMgUfo6f1GUcsFlec6CMVkVXkpO0Fq_skNlKp6js0gZiMC6sy1kXr8Zere1qkKP4J75aTCFMjPLI84VvVWllN0QlWxAOlAJT7rFreuVUeA/s320/TimeTrialTwitter.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
Spectators on course weren't aware of the split for most of the event.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Bay Criteriums</span><br />
The<span style="text-align: left;"> </span><a href="http://web.me.com/rbueman/JBCC/2012_Stages.html" style="text-align: left;" target="_blank">Bay Criteriums</a> was my introduction to tracking bicycle racing. Every event was tracked with assistance from Ian Blanchonette and Sue Horne in the first few days and Lars Teutenberg managed the final day on his own. We also <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/359051">tracked</a> cycling commentator <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phil_Liggett">Phil Ligget's</a> respectable effort in Amy's ride.<br />
<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-collapse: collapse; margin-left: 5.4pt; width: 609px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td nowrap="nowrap" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 5.0cm;" valign="bottom" width="189"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Event<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="nowrap" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 314.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="420"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Link to Hub<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td nowrap="nowrap" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 5.0cm;" valign="bottom" width="189"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Geelong Eastern Beach<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="nowrap" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 314.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="420"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="color: black; text-decoration: none;"><a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/tag/Bay%20Classic-1-01-12">Hub1</a>,
<a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/tag/Bay%20Classic-1-1-12">Hub2</a></span><o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td nowrap="nowrap" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 5.0cm;" valign="bottom" width="189"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Geelong Eastern Park<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="nowrap" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 314.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="420"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/tag/Bay%20Classic-2-01-12">Hub1</a>,
<a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/tag/Bay%20Classic-1-2-12">Hub2</a><o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td nowrap="nowrap" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 5.0cm;" valign="bottom" width="189"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Portarlington<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="nowrap" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 314.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="420"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/tag/Bay%20Classic-3-01-12">Hub1</a>,
<a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/tag/Bay%20Classic-1-3-12">Hub2</a><o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td nowrap="nowrap" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 5.0cm;" valign="bottom" width="189"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
Williamstown<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="nowrap" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 314.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="420"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/tag/Bay%20Classic-4-01-12">Hub1</a>,
<a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/tag/Bay%20Classic-1-4-12">Hub2</a><o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
Follow links from the hubs to view individual rides.<br />
<br />
The surprise to me was the complexity of the logistics and criteriums are the simplest races from a logistics perspective. Every start is somewhere new and therefore different. Riders look after clothing and food but not the bikes. Mechanics prepare the bikes before every event and place them in a convenient location for the riders. This is the last time when all the bikes are accessible in the one place but it can sometimes be a long time before race start. Riders individually prepare themselves mentally and physically for the race and appear as late as practically possible to pick up their bike and get to the start. <a href="http://www.srm.de/it/powercontrol">SRM head units</a> form part of the personal gear for some riders but are part of the bike for others. Those head units that remain with the rider are not available for configuration until the rider appears at which time it is inconvenient for the rider. Ideally a head unit would be configured with an ANT + address, perhaps the riders team number, at the start of a season and never be changed so that a tracker can be configured and fitted to the bike or handed to the rider as they collect their bike. In later events, some riders e.g. Amanda Spratt carried trackers without ever having seen them before which emphasises the requirement for an absolute minimum of rider involvement. In the Bay Criteriums the
<a href="https://market.android.com/details?id=com.urremote.bridge&hl=en" target="_blank">tracking app</a> was started manually on the device so many of the races show long periods of tracking before race start. As the riders carried the tracker in their jersey pocket it was necessary to spend a couple of minutes with each rider as close as possible to race start which is inconvenient. This provided motivation for the introduction of timed tracking starts and remote control of the
<a href="https://market.android.com/details?id=com.urremote.bridge&hl=en" target="_blank">tracking app</a> for later events. Once implemented, remote control allowed most tracker management to be done in a timely manner without disturbing the rider and reduced servicing between races. Ideally a handset should be entirely managed remotely which could could be done best with <a href="http://code.google.com/android/c2dm/" target="_blank">Android Cloud to Device Messaging</a>, but this is not available in Android 2.1, the operating system on the <a href="http://www.sonyericsson.com/cws/corporate/products/phoneportfolio/specification/xperiax10minipro" target="_blank">Xperia X10 mini pro</a> handsets used in this event. It is available, however, for the Xperia Active which we sometimes used in later events.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;">What's Next?</span><br />
I'm not sure. We learned a lot about how to track races and got better at it as we progressed but there is undoubtedly many improvements to come in data presentation and analysis. There is a tremendous opportunity, using tracking, to improve current race coverage and post race analysis, particularly if all riders in a race can be tracked. It is so obviously useful I'm confident race tracking will grow and perhaps the appropriate question is why isn't it ubiquitous already? Garmin has an obvious interest in sports tracking but it's rumoured that the commercial side of Garmin's cycling team have been overruled by the sporting side which prefers to minimise availability of rider data. So that might be part of the answer.</div>
</div>Kenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2473504615610883562.post-74302164719457181952011-12-07T01:37:00.001+11:002011-12-08T10:15:09.712+11:00Green Edge Goes To ParliamentWith a lot of help from others, Umran and I have been tracking the new <a href="http://www.greenedgecycling.com/" target="_blank">Green Edge</a> road cycling team during their training camp at the AIS and Thredbo and improving live tracking technology as they train. Rides were tracked in <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/tag/ais%20riders/" target="_blank">Canberra and Thredbo</a>. Today the team rides to <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/tag/parliament" target="_blank">Parliament</a> and the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minister_for_Sport_%28Australia%29" title="Minister for Sport (Australia)">Minister for Sport</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Arbib" target="_blank">Mark Arbib</a> will ride along with the team. We may get the opportunity to <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/334533" target="_blank">track him</a>. Live tracking technology can provide detailed information to a race audience and if a whole field is tracked, offers the potential for live web telecasts of races. Tracking during training provides feedback to coaches to enable them to analyse performance while training is taking place. Using an amalgam of technologies including Google My Tracks, Map My Tracks, our own Android app and wireless sensors we can provide cyclist position, speed, heart rate, power and cadence.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: orange;">Update </span> </span><br />
<br />
We did get to <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/334533" target="_blank">track the minister</a> and it was fun watching. In retrospect I wish I'd driven down to parliament house to watch them arrive. From the AIS to parliament house we are tracking Mark riding with the Green Edge team, <a href="http://www.tams.act.gov.au/play/sport_and_recreation/actas/squads/cycling" target="_blank">ACTAS, </a> the ACT Sports minister Andrew Bar and some other riders I didn't recognise. Mark proceeds directly to the parliamentary forecourt while the other cyclists (at least the ones we tracked) do another lap around parliament house before joining. <a href="http://www.rebeccawiasak.com/Rebecca_Wiasak/Home.html" target="_blank">Rebecca Wiasak</a>, who I haven't seen since the <a href="http://blog.urremote.com/2011/11/tough-times-at-ais-womens-road-cycling.html" target="_blank">camp</a>, was there with ACTAS and carried a <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/334538" target="_blank">tracker</a> as well. At the parliamentary forecourt Mark Arbib's tracker was retrieved and the subsequent path was the team car.Kenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2473504615610883562.post-70311108147235926252011-11-25T09:41:00.001+11:002011-11-28T16:14:52.347+11:00Final Five At The AIS Womens Road Cycling Camp<span style="font-size: large;">Friday
</span><br />
The AIS <a href="http://blog.urremote.com/2011/11/tough-times-at-ais-womens-road-cycling.html" target="_blank">Women's Road Cycling Camp</a> is nearly over with only two days and five riders remaining. Today we are <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/tag/ais%20final%20five" target="_blank">tracking a ride</a> from of about 100km that finishes at the NSW/ACT border. The individual riders are:
<br />
<table border="1">
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>Rider</th>
<th>Screen Name</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>G. Sulzberger</td>
<td><a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/327085" target="_blank">livemonitor.temp03</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S. Noonan</td>
<td><a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/327082" target="_blank">livemonitor.temp04</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>G. Elvin</td>
<td><a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/327088" target="_blank">livemonitor.temp01</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>R. Neylan</td>
<td><a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/327091" target="_blank">livemonitor.temp02</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>L. Jacobs</td>
<td><a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/327084" target="_blank">livemonitor.temp05</a></td>
</tr>
</tbody><caption align="bottom">Riders on the Second Last Day of the AIS Women's Road Cycling Camp</caption></table>
<table border="1"><caption align="bottom"> </caption></table>
One rider, R. Neylan, has an <a href="http://www.srm.de/index.php?option=com_virtuemart&Itemid=469&lang=us" target="_blank">SRM Power Control 7</a> so you can see power data for her.<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Saturday</span> <br />
The camp finishes today with the Canberra Cycling Club <a href="http://www.canberracyclingclub.org.au/events/details.asp?IntContId=1456&IntCatId=32" target="_blank">Lookout Hill</a> event. See them grouped <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/tag/ais%20final%20five" target="_blank">here</a> .<br />
<br />Kenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2473504615610883562.post-8618079219601591222011-11-19T14:46:00.001+11:002011-11-23T12:05:31.334+11:00Tough Times At The AIS Women's Road Cycling CampThere was a culling event yesterday and it was a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivor_%28TV_series%29" target="_blank">"Survivor"</a> like scenario where the women check out of their hotel and attend the event with their bags packed. Those that remain face another tough week and more culls until the the last four are offered <a href="http://www.ausport.gov.au/ais/sports/cycling/scholarships" target="_blank">cycling scholarships</a> as their prize. Some of the original twenty one didn't get this far, one with a broken collar bone. Presumably <a href="http://www.cadelevans.com.au/" target="_blank">Cadel Evans</a> benefited from his scholarship but I'm wondering whether it's worth the effort because it looks hellishly difficult to get one. Usually they don't know until the morning what they will endure that day but they know about the cull which I saw was causing anguish. In one exercise to maximise psychological pressure, torture machines, otherwise known as stationary bicycles, are placed in a line so sufferers can observe their colleagues. No one wants to be the first to collapse and some want to be the last. The pain is obvious and when one person performed as well as anyone has in the last twenty years, she wasn't told. She too was concerned about the cull and if she knew her result she wouldn't be. I stayed away from the cull but will look for the survivor list today.<br />
<br />
We are testing <a href="http://blog.urremote.com/2011/11/is-live-bicycle-tracking-going-to-have.html" target="_blank">live tracking</a>, aiming to figure out how to use it as a training aid. All test rides for the camp are <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/tag/ais-women-camp" target="_blank">grouped</a>. It was a last minute invitation to test at the camp due to positive feedback at two <a href="http://blog.urremote.com/2011/11/is-live-bicycle-tracking-going-to-have.html" target="_blank">earlier presentations</a>. The late decision precluded preparation.<br />
<br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">Friday Pursuits</span><br />
Friday was a <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/tag/AISpursuit/" target="_blank">pursuit</a> with a morning session swapping handsets between riders. <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/325807#" target="_blank">Live</a> data was provided from one handset. Two riders were <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/322377" target="_blank">tracked </a> on the<a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/322376" target="_blank"> way home</a>. The afternoon was a repeat of the morning with <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/322401" target="_blank">live</a>, corresponding <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/322506" target="_blank">uploaded</a> data and earlier <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/322521" target="_blank">uploaded</a> data from one handset and <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/322402" target="_blank">live</a>, corresponding <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/322969" target="_blank">uploaded</a> data and earlier <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/322968" target="_blank">uploaded</a> data from a second handset. We missed some change overs because recovering a handset and passing it to the next rider breaks the flow. It also requires records of who is riding when. Handsets aren't expensive so a handset per rider is the way forward. We are purchasing ten more for future testing. You don't want to interfere with the flow of the session therefore starting the handset early in the day and stopping at the end is better. Remote control of the app through a web interface by a third party would be better again. This would enable battery management and sessions to be broken down into separate activities live without bothering the athlete.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/6380534429/" title="Dave Martin Demonstrating Standing Starts At The Pursuit by ken2004, on Flickr"><img alt="Dave Martin Demonstrating Standing Starts At The Pursuit" height="274" src="http://farm7.staticflickr.com/6098/6380534429_33435f2834_z.jpg" width="640" /></a>
<br />
<br />
Dave Martin mentioned it would be useful to use the tracking data for recording times, particularly where there are a lot of riders. We have a three second resolution in the live data and one second in the on device <a href="http://mytracks.appspot.com/" target="_blank">My Tracks</a> record so timing will not be high resolution but interpolation may get timing a bit better than one second. Using the one second data, pursuit times for a few riders were estimated as:-<br />
<table border="1">
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>Lap</th>
<th>Rider 2</th>
<th>Rider 4</th><th>Rider 5</th>
<th>Rider 7</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>1</td>
<td>39.5</td>
<td>40</td>
<td>39.5</td>
<td>38.5
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2</td>
<td>39.5</td>
<td>38</td>
<td>38.5</td>
<td>38.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3</td>
<td>40</td>
<td>39</td>
<td>39.5</td>
<td>37.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4</td>
<td>39</td>
<td>38.5</td>
<td>38.5</td>
<td>37.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5</td>
<td>38</td>
<td>38.5</td>
<td>39</td>
<td>37.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6</td>
<td>38</td>
<td>38.5</td>
<td>39</td>
<td>37</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Overall Time</td>
<td>273</td>
<td>272.5</td>
<td>275</td>
<td>268</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Measured Distance (km)</td>
<td>3.36</td>
<td>3.30</td>
<td>3.34</td>
<td>3.28</td>
</tr>
</tbody><caption align="bottom">Lap times in seconds estimated from one second GPS data for comparison with stop watch</caption>
</table>
To automate timing a start and stop line would be useful and the timing between the two could be calculated automatically.
<br />
<br />
Rider 3 <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/322404" target="_blank">recorded power data</a> on the ride back from Queanbeyan and <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/322504" target="_blank">another</a> cyclist tracked position only.<br />
<br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">Saturday Hill Climb</span><br />
On the morning <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/tag/daythreetravel" target="_blank">travel</a> to Black mountain <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/322921" target="_blank">Rider 17</a> and <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/322922" target="_blank">Rider 14</a> carried a handset and Rider 14 provided power data from a <a href="http://www.srm.de/us/powercontrol" target="_blank">PCS 7</a>. Two riders in the morning group carried a handset up Black Mountain and two in the afternoon. Another rider didn't want to carry the extra 136 grams, prompting the question of whether that was due to the idea of extra weight or whether 136 grams really is too much? The hill climb needs a lot of staff at the top to get individual arrival times in case of bunching so GPS timing here might be useful. In this case it was a rolling start so knowledge of the timing start point is required for a timing estimate. The morning riders were <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/322921" target="_blank">Rider 17</a> finishing eigth and <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/322933" target="_blank">Rider 13</a> finishing sixth. Neither had a <a href="http://www.srm.de/us/powercontrol" target="_blank">PCS 7</a> but another rider did so I tried pairing both units to Rider14's <a href="http://www.srm.de/us/powercontrol" target="_blank">PCS 7</a> and you will see the same power data on both graphs. When discussing live tracking some people express the view that live data shouldn't be shared as it gives your opponent an advantage, however if <a href="http://www.srm.de/us/powercontrol" target="_blank">PCS 7</a> telemetry is turned on anyone who wants can pick it up if they are close enough. The field strung out and once the distance was too great the radio signal and therefore power data was lost. On this occasion there was a single <a href="http://www.srm.de/us/powercontrol" target="_blank">PCS 7</a> so it was easy to connect to the right one but the current <a href="http://mytracks.appspot.com/" target="_blank">My Tracks</a> pairing algorithm of connect to the first unit it can find will be unsuitable in an environment of multiple <a href="http://www.srm.de/us/powercontrol" target="_blank">PCS 7</a>s. Also there is also only 1000 possible ANT + addresses for a <a href="http://www.srm.de/us/powercontrol" target="_blank">PCS 7</a> so in a big event its likely multiple units will use the same address and interfere with each other.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/6380879305/" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;" title="Talk Before The Black Mountain Climb by ken2004, on Flickr"><img alt="Talk Before The Black Mountain Climb" height="167" src="http://farm7.staticflickr.com/6218/6380879305_8766f8f663.jpg" width="320" /></a><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/6380879083/" title="Pre Climb Weigh In by ken2004, on Flickr"><img alt="Pre Climb Weigh In" height="200" src="http://farm7.staticflickr.com/6120/6380879083_a17dd944a2_m.jpg" width="115" /></a>
<br />
<br />
One <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/322933" target="_blank">volunteer</a> and <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/322934" target="_blank">Rider 3</a> carried the handset in the afternoon with Rider 3 recording power data. The afternoon riders came in close together with Rider 3 fifth. On the descent the riders had to get to the bottom as quickly as possible but they faced culling if they crossed the white line or crashed.<br />
<br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">Sunday Race</span><br />
On Sunday there was a three hour race to Yass and another back in the rain with some dirt sections. Riders were too spread out for a peloton. These are expensive bikes which I thought were fragile and while they didn't look good on ruts or in the mud with their thin racing tyres, nothing broke. Going downhill fast in the mud looked scary and I saw one rider drop back from her more courageous colleagues in fear. No one complained though, and the winner from Tasmania said. "It suits me. Its like home".<br />
<br />
We expected loss of mobile reception along this route so Umran spent Saturday improving the logic for dealing with the loss of connectivity. There wasn't time to install this on Rider 3's handset on Sunday morning. Rider 3's handset got a server error shortly after setting off so the app stopped sending. This meant loss of live data but the data is still captured on the handset by My Tracks. Rider 3 forgot her <a href="http://www.srm.de/us/powercontrol" target="_blank">PCS 7</a>, so I picked it up and delivered it to her half way to Yass. This allowed us to get<a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/323649#js" target="_blank"> live power data</a> for most of the way back, losing the live feed when the <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/" target="_blank">mapmytracks</a> server shut down for maintenance. Again the data was still available on the handset. Rider 14 carried the <a href="http://www.mobicity.com.au/sony-ericsson-xperia-arc-nextg.html" target="_blank">Xperia ARC</a> handset with the software upgrade and it provided live on the way <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/323645" target="_blank">out</a> until we lost the GPS signal and all the way <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/323593" target="_blank">back</a>. The power data is good but the GPS data was patchy so we checked the live data against the handset data file on the way <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/324578" target="_blank">out</a> and <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/explore/activity/324577" target="_blank">back</a> giving the same result and showing the problem is this handset's poor quality GPS. It provides an example of the necessity to test handsets. This is a much newer and more expensive handset than the <a href="http://www.mobicity.com.au/sony-ericsson-xperia-x10-minipro.html" target="_blank">X10 mini pro</a>, but for this application, inferior. For anyone who's reading this in Australia and wants an <a href="http://www.mobicity.com.au/sony-ericsson-xperia-x10-minipro.html" target="_blank">X10 mini pro</a> they are being <a href="http://www.lasoo.com.au/offer/mobile-smart-phones/sony-ericsson-xperia-mini-pro-telstra-pre-paid-mobile-phones/4omw7uoy1.html?source=category&term=sony&pageopt=mobile-phones" target="_blank">advertised at Target</a> for $99 sim locked to Telstra between 24 Nov and 30 Nov 2011. From an observers point of view the loss of mobile reception is disconcerting because they see the rider stationary for a long period followed by very fast travel when the mobile reception returns. The new software dealt better with loss of connectivity so I'll upgrade the<a href="https://market.android.com/details?id=com.urremote.bridge" target="_blank"> market app</a> in the next few days.<br />
<br />
There was a 15 minute break at Yass which allowed for a battery change. This takes about 3 minutes on the <a href="http://www.mobicity.com.au/sony-ericsson-xperia-x10-minipro.html" target="_blank">X10 mini pro</a> and probably double that on the <a href="http://www.mobicity.com.au/sony-ericsson-xperia-arc-nextg.html" target="_blank">Xperia ARC</a> as it has a slow boot. Battery changes are quite practical in a break but it ought to be a support person that does it as the athletes are too tired to fiddle. This three hour event each way provided a good opportunity to test battery life. Both handsets lasted the distance both ways. The Xperia <a href="http://www.mobicity.com.au/sony-ericsson-xperia-x10-minipro.html" target="_blank">X10 mini pro</a> had at most another half hour of battery life remaining and the <a href="http://www.mobicity.com.au/sony-ericsson-xperia-arc-nextg.html" target="_blank">Xperia ARC</a> was a bit below half in each direction.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/6381496207/" title="Z. Waters Bringing It Home by ken2004, on Flickr"><img alt="Z. Waters Bringing It Home" height="240" src="http://farm7.staticflickr.com/6119/6381496207_b20184f1c2_m.jpg" width="180" /></a><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/81664624@N00/6381496449/" title="S. Noonan Bringing It Home by ken2004, on Flickr"><img alt="S. Noonan Bringing It Home" height="240" src="http://farm7.staticflickr.com/6052/6381496449_6904d98d3a_m.jpg" width="180" /></a>
<br />
<br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">General Observations</span><br />
<br />
Live tracking would be more useful with more riders so Dave Martin suggested at the Friday night debrief installing the <a href="http://itunes.apple.com/gb/app/map-my-tracks-outfront-all/id347858530?mt=8" target="_blank">Iphone app</a> to the 13 Iphone owners and <a href="https://market.android.com/details?id=com.urremote.bridge" target="_blank">our app</a> to the Android owner. Nobody did, perhaps because everyone is already tired and its too much bother, providing further evidence that tracking has to be low effort to get buy in and people need to be familiar with the technology prior to an event. We've seen teams tracked at the past two Tour de France races, but not the field. We need to see the full field on the one map to understand an event so it would be great to do an event with universal tracking. This is a weakness in the SRM model where only riders with SRM telemetry can connect to SRM Live. Its more valuable for everyone to see the data from other riders, even if its only position for those without power meters, so live tracking systems ought to work with a wide range of equipment. The majority of the riders on the camp already had a suitable smart phone, so we could have done it. Also, even at this level there were only 3 out of the 21 riders with <a href="http://www.srm.de/us/powercontrol" target="_blank">PCS 7</a>s. Not everyone with a power meter had a <a href="http://www.srm.de/us/powercontrol" target="_blank">PCS 7</a> so widespread use also needs <a href="http://mytracks.appspot.com/" target="_blank">My Tracks</a> to connect to more sensors including directly to power meters which Google is working on. GPS accuracy is currently critical. A handset with poor GPS like, the <a href="http://www.mobicity.com.au/sony-ericsson-xperia-arc-nextg.html" target="_blank">Xperia ARC</a> or an environment unsuitable for GPS will give poor speed and distance accuracy. One solution would be to use odometry for the speed and distance measurements and the GPS, for location only. The <a href="http://www.mapmytracks.com/" target="_blank">mapmytracks</a> server goes down in the middle of every night in Britain, where the developers are based, for an hour or so of maintenance. This probably doesn't bother people there but it's a significant inconvenience in Australia, where it is mid afternoon, even though we managed to record across the shut down with Saturday'software upgrade.<br />
<br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">Summary</span><br />
<ol>
<li>We need to track everyone in an event on the same map to understand what is going on.</li>
<li>Handsets need to be tested prior to use as newer and more expensive is not always better.</li>
<li>Handsets should be associated with riders not swapped between riders or associated with bikes.</li>
<li>Battery life is not an issue up to 3 hours with the <a href="http://www.mobicity.com.au/sony-ericsson-xperia-x10-minipro.html" target="_blank">X10 mini pro</a> but needs thought for longer events.</li>
<li>Riders need to be familiar with using tracking prior to an event.</li>
<li>Effort to set up and go needs to be minimal, ideally nil. Its not practical for a rider to manage the technology during an event.</li>
<li>Remote control of tracking would be useful for separating activities and managing battery life.Tracking systems need to connect to a variety of devices including directly to power meters and heart rate monitors.</li>
<li>The daily mapmytracks server shut down is a significant inconvenience.</li>
</ol>Kenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.com0